Language:English
Zachary Svajda v Daniel Merida Aguilar
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Zachary Svajda (Local)
Prediction 70.03%1.43fair odd
EV -1.95%
Edge -1.39%
Kelly -4.88%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.92%70.40%70.04%73.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.271.351.351.4078.74%74.29%74.07%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit)
Prediction 29.97%3.34fair odd
EV +7.87%
Edge +2.19%
Kelly +3.03%
Growth +0.238%
assuming max odds 3.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.53%29.60%29.96%32.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.883.133.093.6034.72%31.94%32.36%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zachary Svajda (Local): 70.03%; Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit): 29.97%. For Daniel Merida Aguilar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.34. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.87%.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -8.95%E -6.89%K -29.85%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +7.87%E +2.19%K +3.03%G +0.238% | 4.7% | 2026-03-17 21:49 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -9.66%E -7.48%K -33.29%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +4.88%E +1.39%K +1.95%G +0.095% | 6.1% | 2026-03-17 21:50 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -10.36%E -8.09%K -36.98%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +4.88%E +1.39%K +1.95%G +0.095% | 6.7% | 2026-03-17 21:50 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -11.06%E -8.71%K -40.95%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV +4.88%E +1.39%K +1.95%G +0.095% | 7.3% | 2026-03-17 21:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -10.36%E -8.09%K -36.98%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV +1.88%E +0.553%K +0.784%G +0.015% | 7.5% | 2026-03-17 21:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 69.96%EV -1.95%E -1.39%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 3.26I 30.67%NM 30.04%EV -2.31%E -0.710%K -1.02%G +0.000% | 2.1% | 2026-03-17 21:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.45%E -4.04%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.11%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-17 21:55 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -6.15%E -4.59%K -18.10%G +0.000% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -4.11%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-17 21:24 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -4.75%E -3.49%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -4.71%E -1.48%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-17 21:53 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -2.65%E -1.91%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -7.11%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-17 21:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.35%E -2.43%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -7.11%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-17 21:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.05%E -2.96%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -7.11%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-17 21:35 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.97%EV -2.65%E -1.91%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.03%EV -7.41%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.97%EV -2.65%E -1.91%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 3.09I 32.36%NM 31.03%EV -7.41%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-17 21:20 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.45%E -4.04%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-17 21:25 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.11%EV -5.45%E -4.04%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -9.51%E -3.15%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-17 21:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.35%E -2.43%K -8.82%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-17 21:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.75%E -3.49%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.75%E -3.49%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.85%E -5.15%K -20.77%G +0.000% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-17 21:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -5.45%E -4.04%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -11.60%E -3.93%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-17 21:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -5.45%E -4.04%K -15.58%G +0.000% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -11.60%E -3.93%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-17 21:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 68.62%EV -6.15%E -4.59%K -18.10%G +0.000% | 2.93I 34.13%NM 31.38%EV -12.20%E -4.16%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-17 21:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -4.75%E -3.49%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -13.10%E -4.52%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 68.72%EV -7.55%E -5.72%K -23.61%G +0.000% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.10%E -4.52%K -6.90%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-17 21:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -4.75%E -3.49%K -13.20%G +0.000% | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -13.70%E -4.76%K -7.29%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-17 21:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20% | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80% | 4.7% | 2026-03-17 21:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 61.06% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 38.94% | 17.8% | 2026-03-17 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 61.06% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 38.94% | 17.8% | 2026-03-17 21:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.39I 71.94%NM 61.06% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 38.94% | 17.8% | 2026-03-17 21:50 |