Zachary Svajda v Daniel Merida Aguilar

Inizio: 2026-03-17 22:00 UTC

Quote di chiusura — probabilità e valore atteso calcolati dalle ultime quote registrate prima dell’inizio secondo il modello selezionato. L’incontro è iniziato, quindi non sono dati in tempo reale. Valuti l’affidabilità delle previsioni probabilistiche di ciascun modello rispetto a tutti i risultati definitivi →

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26 bookmaker (13 nell’analisi )

70%

30%

Probabilità stimata di ciascun risultato secondo il modello: IQM

Zachary Svajda (Casa)

Previsione 70.03%1.43quota equa

EV -1.95%

Vantaggio -1.39%

Kelly -4.88%

Crescita +0.000%

ipotizzando la quota massima 1.40

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker

67.92%70.40%70.04%73.47%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Distribuzione delle quote

1.271.351.351.4078.74%74.29%74.07%71.43%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Daniel Merida Aguilar (Trasferta)

Previsione 29.97%3.34quota equa

EV +7.87%

Vantaggio +2.19%

Kelly +3.03%

Crescita +0.238%

ipotizzando la quota massima 3.60

Distribuzione delle stime di probabilità dei bookmaker

26.53%29.60%29.96%32.08%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Distribuzione delle quote

2.883.133.093.6034.72%31.94%32.36%27.78%MINMEDIAMEDIANAMAX

Quote dei bookmaker (26 bookmaker)

Non siamo affiliati ad alcun bookmaker e non ricaviamo nulla dalle operazioni svolte presso di essi.

Bookmaker	Casa	Trasferta ▼	Margine	Aggiornamento
Unibet (UK)	1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -8.95%E -6.89%K -29.85%G +0.000%	3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV +7.87%E +2.19%K +3.03%G +0.238%	4.7%	2026-03-17 21:49
PointsBet (AU)	1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -9.66%E -7.48%K -33.29%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV +4.88%E +1.39%K +1.95%G +0.095%	6.1%	2026-03-17 21:50
theScore Bet	1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -10.36%E -8.09%K -36.98%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV +4.88%E +1.39%K +1.95%G +0.095%	6.7%	2026-03-17 21:50
Winamax (DE)	1.27I 78.74%NM 73.38%EV -11.06%E -8.71%K -40.95%G +0.000%	3.50I 28.57%NM 26.62%EV +4.88%E +1.39%K +1.95%G +0.095%	7.3%	2026-03-17 21:55
Winamax (FR)	1.28I 78.13%NM 72.65%EV -10.36%E -8.09%K -36.98%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV +1.88%E +0.553%K +0.784%G +0.015%	7.5%	2026-03-17 21:55
GTbets	1.40I 71.43%NM 69.96%EV -1.95%E -1.39%K -4.88%G +0.000%	3.26I 30.67%NM 30.04%EV -2.31%E -0.710%K -1.02%G +0.000%	2.1%	2026-03-17 21:55
Betway	1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -5.45%E -4.04%K -15.58%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -4.11%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-17 21:55
FanDuel	1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -6.15%E -4.59%K -18.10%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -4.11%E -1.28%K -1.87%G +0.000%	5.9%	2026-03-17 21:24
Coolbet	1.36I 73.53%NM 70.04%EV -4.75%E -3.49%K -13.20%G +0.000%	3.18I 31.45%NM 29.96%EV -4.71%E -1.48%K -2.16%G +0.000%	5.0%	2026-03-17 21:53
Pinnacle	1.39I 71.94%NM 69.04%EV -2.65%E -1.91%K -6.80%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.96%EV -7.11%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000%	4.2%	2026-03-17 21:30
Bovada	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.35%E -2.43%K -8.82%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -7.11%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000%	4.7%	2026-03-17 21:10
ReBet	1.37I 72.99%NM 69.35%EV -4.05%E -2.96%K -10.95%G +0.000%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.65%EV -7.11%E -2.29%K -3.38%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-03-17 21:35
LowVig.ag	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.97%EV -2.65%E -1.91%K -6.80%G +0.000%	3.09I 32.36%NM 31.03%EV -7.41%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-17 21:20
BetOnline.ag	1.39I 71.94%NM 68.97%EV -2.65%E -1.91%K -6.80%G +0.000%	3.09I 32.36%NM 31.03%EV -7.41%E -2.40%K -3.54%G +0.000%	4.3%	2026-03-17 21:20
Fliff	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.32%EV -5.45%E -4.04%K -15.58%G +0.000%	3.05I 32.79%NM 30.68%EV -8.61%E -2.82%K -4.20%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-17 21:25
Unibet (FR)	1.35I 74.07%NM 69.11%EV -5.45%E -4.04%K -15.58%G +0.000%	3.02I 33.11%NM 30.89%EV -9.51%E -3.15%K -4.71%G +0.000%	7.2%	2026-03-17 21:39
PlayUp	1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -3.35%E -2.43%K -8.82%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-03-17 21:25
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.75%E -3.49%K -13.20%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-17 21:00
Coral	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.75%E -3.49%K -13.20%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-03-17 21:00
Paddy Power	1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.85%E -5.15%K -20.77%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.10%E -3.37%K -5.05%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-03-17 21:24
Betsson	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -5.45%E -4.04%K -15.58%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -11.60%E -3.93%K -5.95%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-17 21:25
NordicBet	1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -5.45%E -4.04%K -15.58%G +0.000%	2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -11.60%E -3.93%K -5.95%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-17 21:25
Marathon Bet	1.34I 74.63%NM 68.62%EV -6.15%E -4.59%K -18.10%G +0.000%	2.93I 34.13%NM 31.38%EV -12.20%E -4.16%K -6.32%G +0.000%	8.8%	2026-03-17 21:49
TAB	1.36I 73.53%NM 68.08%EV -4.75%E -3.49%K -13.20%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.92%EV -13.10%E -4.52%K -6.90%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-03-17 21:00
NetBet (FR)	1.32I 75.76%NM 68.72%EV -7.55%E -5.72%K -23.61%G +0.000%	2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -13.10%E -4.52%K -6.90%G +0.000%	10.2%	2026-03-17 21:39
Bet Victor	1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -4.75%E -3.49%K -13.20%G +0.000%	2.88I 34.72%NM 32.08%EV -13.70%E -4.76%K -7.29%G +0.000%	8.3%	2026-03-17 21:24

Margine = Margine (overround) · I = Probabilità implicita · NM = Probabilità senza margine · EV = Valore atteso · E = Vantaggio · K = Criterio di Kelly · G = Crescita del capitale

Aggiornamento indica quando ciascun bookmaker ha modificato la quota per l’ultima volta: un orario meno recente significa che la quota non si è mossa, non che sia obsoleta. I bookmaker assenti da circa 15 minuti vengono normalmente esclusi; solo se tace il flusso dell’intero mercato si mostrano le ultime quote registrate.

Borse di scommesse (4)

Bookmaker	Casa	Trasferta	Margine ▲	Aggiornamento
Smarkets	1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%	3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%	4.7%	2026-03-17 21:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.39I 71.94%NM 61.06%	2.18I 45.87%NM 38.94%	17.8%	2026-03-17 21:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.39I 71.94%NM 61.06%	2.18I 45.87%NM 38.94%	17.8%	2026-03-17 21:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.39I 71.94%NM 61.06%	2.18I 45.87%NM 38.94%	17.8%	2026-03-17 21:50