Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yannick Hanfmann v Luca Van Assche

Kickoff: 2026-03-17 16:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

27 sportsbooks (13 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Yannick Hanfmann (Local)

Prediction 54.13%1.85fair odd
EV -2.02%
Edge -1.12%
Kelly -2.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.81

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.62%54.32%54.52%57.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.711.711.8161.73%58.37%58.48%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luca Van Assche (Visit)

Prediction 45.87%2.18fair odd
EV +4.58%
Edge +2.01%
Kelly +3.58%
Growth +0.164%

assuming max odds 2.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.41%45.68%45.48%47.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.072.052.2851.28%48.21%48.78%43.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yannick Hanfmann (Local): 54.13%; Luca Van Assche (Visit): 45.87%. For Luca Van Assche (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.18. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.58%.

Sportsbook Odds (27 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
LowVig.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -9.06%E -5.39%K -13.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV +4.58%E +2.01%K +3.58%G +0.164%3.4%2026-03-17 15:10
BetOnline.ag🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 57.58%EV -9.06%E -5.39%K -13.33%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 42.42%EV +4.58%E +2.01%K +3.58%G +0.164%3.4%2026-03-17 15:10
FanDuel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -9.60%E -5.75%K -14.33%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV +0.914%E +0.416%K +0.762%G +0.007%5.3%2026-03-17 15:10
PlayUp🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -10.69%E -6.48%K -16.44%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV +0.914%E +0.416%K +0.762%G +0.007%6.1%2026-03-17 15:10
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -12.31%E -7.60%K -19.85%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV +0.914%E +0.416%K +0.762%G +0.007%7.2%2026-03-17 15:10
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -7.44%E -4.35%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -1.38%E -0.642%K -1.20%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 14:59
TAB🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -12.31%E -7.60%K -19.85%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -1.38%E -0.642%K -1.20%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-17 15:10
Pinnacle🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.52%EV -4.73%E -2.69%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.11I 47.39%NM 45.48%EV -3.21%E -1.52%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.2%2026-03-17 15:00
Betway🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.36%E -3.67%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.67%E -1.75%K -3.34%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 15:00
ReBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -5.27%E -3.01%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -4.13%E -1.98%K -3.79%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 14:59
GTbets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -4.73%E -2.69%K -6.23%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -5.51%E -2.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-17 15:00
BoyleSports🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.36%E -3.67%K -8.71%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.97%E -2.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-17 14:59
Unibet (FR)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.90%E -4.01%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -5.97%E -2.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%6.9%2026-03-17 15:00
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.44%E -4.35%K -10.48%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.48%EV -5.97%E -2.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-03-17 15:00
Bet Victor🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.98%E -4.69%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.97%E -2.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-17 14:59
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.98%E -4.69%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.97%E -2.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-17 15:10
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -7.98%E -4.69%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.97%E -2.91%K -5.68%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-17 15:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 54.72%EV -9.06%E -5.39%K -13.33%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 45.28%EV -6.88%E -3.39%K -6.68%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-17 14:59
Unibet (UK)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.62%EV -2.02%E -1.12%K -2.50%G +0.000%2.01I 49.75%NM 47.38%EV -7.80%E -3.88%K -7.72%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-17 15:10
Coolbet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.57%E -1.43%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-17 15:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.19%E -2.37%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-17 15:00
theScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -4.19%E -2.37%K -5.44%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-17 15:10
Everygame🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -7.98%E -4.69%K -11.40%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -8.26%E -4.13%K -8.26%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-17 14:56
NetBet (FR)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -10.69%E -6.48%K -16.44%G +0.000%1.99I 50.25%NM 45.33%EV -8.72%E -4.38%K -8.81%G +0.000%10.9%2026-03-17 15:00
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.27%E -3.01%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.55%E -5.41%K -11.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 15:09
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -5.27%E -3.01%K -7.03%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -10.55%E -5.41%K -11.11%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-17 15:09
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 53.57%EV -8.52%E -5.04%K -12.35%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.43%EV -10.55%E -5.41%K -11.11%G +0.000%10.5%2026-03-17 15:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-03-17 15:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-03-17 15:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.14%2.32I 43.10%NM 42.86%0.6%2026-03-17 15:10
Novig1.68I 59.52%NM 58.31%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.69%2.1%2026-03-17 15:10
Smarkets1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%4.8%2026-03-17 15:10