La escuela de los momios

Quentin Halys v Kamil Majchrzak

Inicio: 2026-03-23 22:40 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

54 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

Quentin Halys (Local)

Predicción 45.44%2.20momio equitativo
EV -0.029%
Ventaja -0.013%
Kelly -0.024%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.20

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
43.15%45.40%45.57%47.37%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.002.092.082.2050.00%47.94%48.08%45.45%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Kamil Majchrzak (Visitante)

Predicción 54.56%1.83momio equitativo
EV -1.79%
Ventaja -0.997%
Kelly -2.24%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.80

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
52.63%54.60%54.43%56.85%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.651.741.751.8060.61%57.49%57.14%55.56%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (54 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Winamax (DE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -0.029%E -0.013%K -0.024%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -7.25%E -4.26%K -10.36%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-23 22:35
888sport2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.029%E -0.013%K -0.024%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.89%E -5.32%K -13.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-23 22:34
William Hill2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.029%E -0.013%K -0.024%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.89%E -5.32%K -13.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-23 22:35
888sport (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.029%E -0.013%K -0.024%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.89%E -5.32%K -13.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-23 22:34
Mr Green (SE)2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.029%E -0.013%K -0.024%G +0.000%1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.89%E -5.32%K -13.26%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-23 22:34
LowVig.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -1.85%E -0.855%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-23 22:34
BetOnline.ag2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -1.85%E -0.855%K -1.59%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.8%2026-03-23 22:35
Betsson2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.25%E -4.26%K -10.36%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-23 22:35
PointsBet (AU)2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -7.80%E -4.61%K -11.30%G +0.000%5.7%2026-03-23 22:35
Winamax (FR)2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -2.30%E -1.07%K -2.00%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -8.34%E -4.97%K -12.27%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-23 22:35
1xBet2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -1.79%E -0.997%K -2.24%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-23 22:35
Bovada2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-23 22:34
Hard Rock Bet2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.1%2026-03-23 22:34
Bet Right2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-23 22:35
BoyleSports2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.61%E -3.24%K -7.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-23 22:34
Betr (AU)2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.16%E -3.58%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-23 22:35
PlayUp2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.16%E -3.58%K -8.55%G +0.000%5.8%2026-03-23 22:34
BetUS2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -6.70%E -3.92%K -9.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-03-23 22:34
TAB2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -7.25%E -4.26%K -10.36%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-23 22:35
Fanatics2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -4.57%E -2.18%K -4.16%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -9.98%E -6.05%K -15.35%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-23 22:35
Unibet (UK)2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -5.03%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.52%E -2.58%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-23 22:34
NordicBet2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -5.03%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.52%E -2.58%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-23 22:34
ReBet2.09I 47.85%NM 45.57%EV -5.03%E -2.41%K -4.61%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.43%EV -4.52%E -2.58%K -6.03%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-23 22:33
FanDuel2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:34
LeoVegas (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:34
Unibet (NL)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:35
TABtouch2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:34
Grosvenor2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:35
LiveScore Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:35
Casumo2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:35
Unibet (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:35
BetRivers2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:34
LeoVegas2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:35
Unibet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:35
Svenska Spel2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:35
betPARX2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:35
Bally Bet2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:35
ATG (SE)2.08I 48.08%NM 45.83%EV -5.48%E -2.64%K -5.08%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.17%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.9%2026-03-23 22:35
Unibet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 46.09%EV -5.94%E -2.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.91%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-23 22:34
NetBet (FR)2.07I 48.31%NM 45.38%EV -5.94%E -2.87%K -5.55%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.62%EV -6.16%E -3.58%K -8.55%G +0.000%6.4%2026-03-23 22:34
Marathon Bet2.06I 48.54%NM 46.07%EV -6.39%E -3.10%K -6.03%G +0.000%1.76I 56.82%NM 53.93%EV -3.98%E -2.26%K -5.23%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-23 22:34
theScore Bet2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.85%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000%5.3%2026-03-23 22:35
Parions Sport (FR)2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.85%E -3.34%K -6.52%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-23 22:34
Virgin Bet2.04I 49.02%NM 45.89%EV -7.30%E -3.58%K -7.02%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.11%EV -5.61%E -3.24%K -7.69%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-23 22:34
GTbets2.03I 49.26%NM 46.86%EV -7.75%E -3.82%K -7.53%G +0.000%1.79I 55.87%NM 53.14%EV -2.34%E -1.31%K -2.96%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-23 22:35
DraftKings2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV -8.21%E -4.06%K -8.05%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -1.79%E -0.997%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-23 22:34
Betway2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -9.12%E -4.56%K -9.12%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -1.79%E -0.997%K -2.24%G +0.000%5.6%2026-03-23 22:34
Caesars2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -9.12%E -4.56%K -9.12%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -3.43%E -1.94%K -4.46%G +0.000%6.5%2026-03-23 22:35
Fliff2.00I 50.00%NM 46.52%EV -9.12%E -4.56%K -9.12%G +0.000%1.74I 57.47%NM 53.48%EV -5.07%E -2.91%K -6.85%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-23 22:35
Bet Victor2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.12%E -4.56%K -9.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.61%E -3.24%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-23 22:28
PMU (FR)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.12%E -4.56%K -9.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.61%E -3.24%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-23 22:35
Paddy Power2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.12%E -4.56%K -9.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.61%E -3.24%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-23 22:34
Coral2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.12%E -4.56%K -9.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.61%E -3.24%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-23 22:35
Ladbrokes (UK)2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -9.12%E -4.56%K -9.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -5.61%E -3.24%K -7.69%G +0.000%7.8%2026-03-23 22:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%0.5%2026-03-23 22:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%0.5%2026-03-23 22:35
Matchbook2.24I 44.64%NM 44.42%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.58%0.5%2026-03-23 22:34
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.24I 44.64%NM 44.28%1.78I 56.18%NM 55.72%0.8%2026-03-23 22:35
ProphetX2.19I 45.66%NM 44.97%1.79I 55.87%NM 55.03%1.5%2026-03-23 22:35
Smarkets2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.2%2026-03-23 22:35
Novig2.18I 45.87%NM 44.53%1.75I 57.14%NM 55.47%3.0%2026-03-23 22:35