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Adam Walton v Rinky Hijikata
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Adam Walton (Local)
Prediction 52.11%1.92fair odd
EV +12.05%
Edge +5.60%
Kelly +10.47%
Growth +1.26%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.73%52.21%52.84%61.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.851.802.1566.67%54.19%55.56%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Rinky Hijikata (Visit)
Prediction 47.89%2.09fair odd
EV +17.32%
Edge +7.07%
Kelly +11.95%
Growth +2.07%
assuming max odds 2.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.44%47.79%47.16%55.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.941.912.4560.61%51.56%52.36%40.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Adam Walton (Local): 52.11%; Rinky Hijikata (Visit): 47.89%. For Rinky Hijikata (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.09. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.32%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.56%EV -20.27%E -13.25%K -38.24%G +0.000% | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.44%EV +17.32%E +7.07%K +11.95%G +2.07% | 6.2% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 60.53%EV -21.83%E -14.55%K -43.66%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV +10.14%E +4.41%K +7.80%G +0.791% | 10.1% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -11.93%E -7.06%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV +5.35%E +2.43%K +4.46%G +0.238% | 4.6% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -12.45%E -7.41%K -18.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV +5.35%E +2.43%K +4.46%G +0.238% | 5.0% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -16.10%E -10.00%K -26.39%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV +5.35%E +2.43%K +4.46%G +0.238% | 7.6% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -14.53%E -8.86%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV +2.95%E +1.37%K +2.57%G +0.076% | 7.5% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.33%EV -16.62%E -10.39%K -27.70%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.67%EV +2.95%E +1.37%K +2.57%G +0.076% | 9.0% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -11.93%E -7.06%K -17.29%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV +0.560%E +0.267%K +0.510%G +0.003% | 6.8% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 56.76%EV -16.62%E -10.39%K -27.70%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.24%EV +0.560%E +0.267%K +0.510%G +0.003% | 10.1% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -6.19%E -3.44%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -1.83%E -0.895%K -1.75%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -6.19%E -3.44%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.23%E -2.11%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.76%E -4.38%K -10.08%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.23%E -2.11%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -8.80%E -5.03%K -11.73%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -4.23%E -2.11%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -9.84%E -5.69%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -4.23%E -2.11%K -4.23%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -6.19%E -3.44%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -8.54%E -4.47%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -6.19%E -3.44%K -7.74%G +0.000% | 1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -9.02%E -4.75%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.90I 52.63%NM 49.06%EV -0.983%E -0.518%K -1.09%G +0.000% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 50.94%EV -12.37%E -6.76%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-03-17 21:03 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 47.12%EV +5.27%E +2.61%K +5.17%G +0.272% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.88%EV -13.81%E -7.67%K -17.26%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-17 20:58 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.87I 53.48%NM 48.63%EV -2.55%E -1.36%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.37%EV -15.24%E -8.61%K -19.79%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV +11.52%E +5.39%K +10.11%G +1.16% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -16.20%E -9.26%K -21.60%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-17 21:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +12.05%E +5.60%K +10.47%G +1.26% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -16.68%E -9.59%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV +12.05%E +5.60%K +10.47%G +1.26% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -16.68%E -9.59%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV +9.44%E +4.50%K +8.58%G +0.810% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -16.68%E -9.59%K -22.54%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-17 20:59 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV +9.44%E +4.50%K +8.58%G +0.810% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -17.64%E -10.25%K -24.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.36%EV +7.35%E +3.57%K +6.94%G +0.510% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 54.64%EV -18.12%E -10.59%K -25.51%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-17 21:00 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV +4.23%E +2.11%K +4.23%G +0.179% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -18.12%E -10.59%K -25.51%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-03-17 20:59 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV +4.23%E +2.11%K +4.23%G +0.179% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -18.59%E -10.94%K -26.56%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-17 20:57 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV +6.83%E +3.33%K +6.51%G +0.445% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -20.03%E -11.99%K -29.90%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-03-17 20:52 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.99I 50.25%NM 45.33%EV +3.71%E +1.86%K +3.74%G +0.139% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.67%EV -20.99%E -12.72%K -32.29%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-03-17 20:57 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 48.61% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.39% | 0.8% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 48.86% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 51.14% | 1.3% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.00I 50.00%NM 49.11% | 1.93I 51.81%NM 50.89% | 1.8% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.88I 53.19%NM 52.04% | 2.04I 49.02%NM 47.96% | 2.2% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.56I 64.10%NM 62.14% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 37.86% | 3.2% | 2026-03-17 21:05 |