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Vilius Gaubas v Felix Auger-Aliassime
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Vilius Gaubas (Local)
Prediction 25.32%3.95fair odd
EV +1.29%
Edge +0.322%
Kelly +0.429%
Growth +0.006%
assuming max odds 4.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.37%25.34%25.43%27.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.713.704.0028.99%26.96%27.03%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit)
Prediction 74.68%1.34fair odd
EV -2.17%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -7.00%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.31
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.63%74.66%74.57%76.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.261.261.3181.97%79.06%79.37%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Vilius Gaubas (Local): 25.32%; Felix Auger-Aliassime (Visit): 74.68%. For Vilius Gaubas (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.95. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.29%.
Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV +1.29%E +0.322%K +0.429%G +0.006% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -8.89%E -7.29%K -40.42%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-23 21:59 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.86%EV -1.25%E -0.319%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.14%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-04-23 22:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -1.25%E -0.319%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.91%E -4.69%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 16:15 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -1.25%E -0.319%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.91%E -4.69%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 16:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -1.25%E -0.319%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.91%E -4.69%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 16:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.42%EV -1.25%E -0.319%K -0.429%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.58%EV -5.91%E -4.69%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 22:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 24.95%EV -3.27%E -0.856%K -1.16%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.05%EV -5.16%E -4.06%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-23 17:15 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.90%EV -3.78%E -0.994%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 75.10%EV -5.91%E -4.69%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 22:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -3.78%E -0.994%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -6.65%E -5.32%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-23 16:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -3.78%E -0.994%K -1.35%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -8.89%E -7.29%K -40.42%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-23 22:50 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV -5.04%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -2.17%E -1.66%K -7.00%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -5.04%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.04%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -5.16%E -4.06%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 22:09 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.04%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.65%E -5.32%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 21:58 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -5.04%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -7.40%E -5.97%K -30.83%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 16:10 |
| Everygame🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -5.04%E -1.35%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -8.89%E -7.29%K -40.42%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 18:30 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -6.31%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.41%E -3.45%K -15.76%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.55%EV -6.31%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.45%EV -5.16%E -4.06%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.31%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.65%E -5.32%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -6.31%E -1.71%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -6.65%E -5.32%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.81%EV -7.58%E -2.08%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.19%EV -5.16%E -4.06%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.84%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 16:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.84%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 16:14 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.84%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 18:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -8.84%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.66%E -2.84%K -12.64%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-23 18:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.08%EV -8.84%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 73.92%EV -5.16%E -4.06%K -19.11%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-04-23 22:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.84%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.91%E -4.69%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 16:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.84%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.91%E -4.69%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-24 02:44 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -8.84%E -2.46%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.07%EV -5.91%E -4.69%K -22.71%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-24 02:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.78%EV -11.37%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.22%EV -4.41%E -3.45%K -15.76%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-24 00:39 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.37%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.65%E -5.32%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -11.37%E -3.25%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.65%E -5.32%K -26.61%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-23 22:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -12.64%E -3.66%K -5.16%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -2.92%E -2.24%K -9.73%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-04-23 22:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 4.12I 24.27%NM 23.42% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.58% | 3.6% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 27.29% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.71% | 12.7% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 49.80% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 50.20% | 63.3% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 49.80% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 50.20% | 63.3% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.23I 81.30%NM 49.80% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 50.20% | 63.3% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.11I 90.09%NM 51.74% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 48.26% | 74.1% | 2026-04-23 17:15 |