Language:English
Benjamin Bonzi v Titouan Droguet
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Benjamin Bonzi (Local)
Prediction 24.18%4.14fair odd
EV +16.05%
Edge +3.34%
Kelly +4.22%
Growth +0.677%
assuming max odds 4.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.60%24.02%24.30%29.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.913.804.8031.25%25.55%26.32%20.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Titouan Droguet (Visit)
Prediction 75.82%1.32fair odd
EV +2.36%
Edge +1.75%
Kelly +6.75%
Growth +0.159%
assuming max odds 1.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.33%75.98%75.70%80.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.141.241.241.3587.72%80.90%80.65%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Benjamin Bonzi (Local): 24.18%; Titouan Droguet (Visit): 75.82%. For Benjamin Bonzi (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.14. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +16.05%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV +16.05%E +3.34%K +4.22%G +0.677% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -11.29%E -9.65%K -66.39%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 16:53 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.65I 21.51%NM 19.69%EV +12.42%E +2.67%K +3.40%G +0.423% | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.31%EV -13.56%E -11.90%K -96.86%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-04-22 16:53 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV +11.21%E +2.44%K +3.11%G +0.349% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -12.04%E -10.38%K -75.28%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.19%EV +8.79%E +1.95%K +2.51%G +0.221% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 78.81%EV -8.25%E -6.82%K -39.30%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV +8.79%E +1.95%K +2.51%G +0.221% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -10.53%E -8.92%K -58.49%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +4.68%E +1.08%K +1.41%G +0.066% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -9.01%E -7.51%K -45.06%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +4.68%E +1.08%K +1.41%G +0.066% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -9.01%E -7.51%K -45.06%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 23.01%EV +0.331%E +0.080%K +0.105%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.99%EV -5.98%E -4.82%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV +0.331%E +0.080%K +0.105%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.07%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV +0.331%E +0.080%K +0.105%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.07%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.22%EV -0.878%E -0.214%K -0.283%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.78%EV -5.98%E -4.82%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.30%E -0.824%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -3.30%E -0.824%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.07%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -4.50%E -1.14%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -4.50%E -1.14%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -4.50%E -1.14%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.04%EV -4.50%E -1.14%K -1.53%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.96%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.93I 25.45%NM 24.71%EV -4.99%E -1.27%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 75.29%EV -2.19%E -1.70%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-22 16:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -6.92%E -1.80%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 76.09%EV -8.25%E -6.82%K -39.30%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.98%E -4.82%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.98%E -4.82%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.60%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.40%EV -5.98%E -4.82%K -24.91%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.30%EV -8.13%E -2.14%K -2.90%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.70%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.07%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.70%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 75.30%EV -6.74%E -5.48%K -29.29%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.49%E -6.14%K -34.07%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.40%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 75.60%EV -8.25%E -6.82%K -39.30%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -9.34%E -2.49%K -3.40%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 76.22%EV -11.29%E -9.65%K -66.39%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -5.22%E -4.18%K -20.88%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.00%EV -12.97%E -3.60%K -4.99%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.00%EV -9.01%E -7.51%K -45.06%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -14.18%E -3.99%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -1.43%E -1.10%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -14.18%E -3.99%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -1.43%E -1.10%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 26.80%EV -14.18%E -3.99%K -5.56%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.20%EV -1.43%E -1.10%K -4.76%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -17.80%E -5.24%K -7.42%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -2.19%E -1.70%K -7.54%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.49%EV -19.01%E -5.67%K -8.09%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.51%EV -3.70%E -2.92%K -13.72%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -22.64%E -7.07%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV +2.36%E +1.75%K +6.75%G +0.159% | 5.3% | 2026-04-22 16:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.13% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 80.87% | 0.5% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.54% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 77.46% | 0.9% | 2026-04-22 16:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.99% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.01% | 0.9% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Smarkets◎ | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.40% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 79.60% | 2.1% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.99% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 78.01% | 3.4% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |
| Novig◎ | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64% | 4.7% | 2026-04-22 16:54 |