Language:English
Alexander Bublik v Stefanos Tsitsipas
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexander Bublik (Local)
Prediction 56.96%1.76fair odd
EV -1.45%
Edge -0.840%
Kelly -1.99%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.67%57.21%57.03%61.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.521.661.691.7365.79%60.10%59.17%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit)
Prediction 43.04%2.32fair odd
EV +4.15%
Edge +1.71%
Kelly +2.92%
Growth +0.121%
assuming max odds 2.42
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.58%42.79%42.97%45.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.152.4248.78%45.82%46.51%41.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexander Bublik (Local): 56.96%; Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit): 43.04%. For Stefanos Tsitsipas (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.42, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.15%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 60.50%EV -10.00%E -6.33%K -17.24%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 39.50%EV +4.15%E +1.71%K +2.92%G +0.121% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 21:44 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.42%EV -13.42%E -8.83%K -25.80%G +0.000% | 2.42I 41.32%NM 38.58%EV +4.15%E +1.71%K +2.92%G +0.121% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 21:44 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -10.57%E -6.73%K -18.54%G +0.000% | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV +3.29%E +1.37%K +2.35%G +0.077% | 5.4% | 2026-04-23 21:49 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -11.14%E -7.14%K -19.89%G +0.000% | 2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV +1.14%E +0.483%K +0.841%G +0.010% | 6.7% | 2026-04-23 21:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 58.08%EV -5.44%E -3.28%K -8.24%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.92%EV -1.02%E -0.442%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-04-23 22:09 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -8.86%E -5.54%K -14.76%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -1.02%E -0.442%K -0.781%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 22:10 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.42%EV -7.15%E -4.39%K -11.35%G +0.000% | 2.29I 43.67%NM 41.58%EV -1.45%E -0.632%K -1.12%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.43%EV -3.73%E -2.21%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.57%EV -1.88%E -0.823%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 03:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -2.02%E -1.18%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -4.03%E -1.81%K -3.28%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.01%E -3.64%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.32%E -2.42%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -6.58%E -4.01%K -10.28%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -5.32%E -2.42%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-23 22:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -8.29%E -5.15%K -13.59%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -5.32%E -2.42%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-23 23:48 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.16%E -1.86%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -7.47%E -3.48%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-24 02:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.73%E -2.21%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.47%E -3.48%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-24 02:54 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.73%E -2.21%K -5.41%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.47%E -3.48%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-04-23 22:14 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.01%E -3.64%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.47%E -3.48%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-04-24 01:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.72%E -4.76%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.47%E -3.48%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 22:08 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -7.72%E -4.76%K -12.45%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -7.47%E -3.48%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-24 03:15 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.05%EV -4.87%E -2.92%K -7.27%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 43.95%EV -8.33%E -3.91%K -7.37%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-04-23 22:10 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -1.45%E -0.840%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -8.76%E -4.13%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-04-23 21:44 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.16%E -1.86%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -8.76%E -4.13%K -7.82%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-04-23 22:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.45%E -0.840%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.62%E -4.58%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-24 02:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.45%E -0.840%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.62%E -4.58%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-24 02:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.45%E -0.840%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.62%E -4.58%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-24 02:30 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.45%E -0.840%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.62%E -4.58%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-04-24 02:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -2.59%E -1.52%K -3.65%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -9.62%E -4.58%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-04-24 02:49 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.01%E -3.64%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -9.62%E -4.58%K -8.75%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 22:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.16%E -1.86%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.78%E -5.74%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-24 02:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.16%E -1.86%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.78%E -5.74%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.16%E -1.86%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.78%E -5.74%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.16%E -1.86%K -4.52%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -11.78%E -5.74%K -11.21%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.58I 63.29%NM 61.84% | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.16% | 2.4% | 2026-04-24 03:40 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.80% | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.20% | 12.0% | 2026-04-24 03:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 68.39% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 31.61% | 32.9% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 68.39% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 31.61% | 32.9% | 2026-04-24 02:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 68.39% | 2.38I 42.02%NM 31.61% | 32.9% | 2026-04-24 03:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 66.67% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 33.33% | 36.4% | 2026-04-24 02:57 |