Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jaume Munar v Kyrian Jacquet

2026-10-04 02:00 UTC — ATP Japan Open

Resultado del partido

51 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Jaume Munar (Local)

Predicción 59.40%1.68momio equitativo
EV -1.98%
Ventaja -1.20%
Kelly -3.05%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.65

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
57.80%59.59%59.38%62.81%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.451.561.571.6568.97%64.05%63.69%60.61%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Kyrian Jacquet (Visitante)

Predicción 40.60%2.46momio equitativo
EV +3.52%
Ventaja +1.38%
Kelly +2.27%
Crecimiento +0.080%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.55

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.19%40.41%40.62%42.20%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.202.362.342.5545.45%42.33%42.74%39.22%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Jaume Munar (Local): 59.40%; Kyrian Jacquet (Visitante): 40.60%. Para Kyrian Jacquet (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.46. 13 corredores ofrecen momios superiores a ese nivel; los mejores momios disponibles son 2.55, lo que produce un valor esperado positivo de +3.52%.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (51 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -9.11%E -5.96%K -17.19%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%4.6%2026-10-02 12:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -9.71%E -6.39%K -18.67%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.0%2026-10-02 11:56
LiveScore Bet🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -9.71%E -6.39%K -18.67%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.0%2026-10-02 11:56
Unibet (NL)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -10.30%E -6.82%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.4%2026-10-02 11:56
Grosvenor🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -10.30%E -6.82%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.4%2026-10-02 11:56
TABtouch🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -10.30%E -6.82%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.4%2026-10-02 11:55
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -10.30%E -6.82%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.4%2026-10-02 11:55
Casumo🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -10.30%E -6.82%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.4%2026-10-02 11:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -10.30%E -6.82%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.4%2026-10-02 11:55
Unibet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -10.30%E -6.82%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.4%2026-10-02 11:55
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -10.30%E -6.82%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.4%2026-10-02 11:54
ATG (SE)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -10.30%E -6.82%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.4%2026-10-02 11:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -10.30%E -6.82%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV +3.52%E +1.38%K +2.27%G +0.080%5.4%2026-10-02 11:56
PMU (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 62.63%EV -13.87%E -9.56%K -30.81%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.37%EV -1.35%E -0.555%K -0.944%G +0.000%10.1%2026-10-02 11:56
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.15%EV -5.55%E -3.49%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.85%EV -2.57%E -1.07%K -1.83%G +0.000%4.6%2026-10-02 11:45
GTbets🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 60.30%EV -6.14%E -3.89%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.70%EV -2.57%E -1.07%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-02 11:40
Marathon Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.35%EV -6.74%E -4.29%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.65%EV -2.97%E -1.24%K -2.14%G +0.000%5.5%2026-10-02 13:36
Coolbet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 59.85%EV -5.55%E -3.49%K -9.40%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 40.15%EV -3.79%E -1.60%K -2.76%G +0.000%5.1%2026-10-02 13:35
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.14%E -3.89%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.60%E -1.96%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-02 11:40
Betr (AU)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -6.14%E -3.89%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -4.60%E -1.96%K -3.41%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-02 13:35
Fanatics🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.74%E -4.29%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -4.60%E -1.96%K -3.41%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 11:45
SportsBet🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -7.92%E -5.11%K -14.41%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -4.60%E -1.96%K -3.41%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-02 11:39
Tipico (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 60.72%EV -9.71%E -6.39%K -18.67%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.28%EV -4.60%E -1.96%K -3.41%G +0.000%8.3%2026-10-02 13:01
Bet Right🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.39%EV -4.95%E -3.10%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.61%EV -5.00%E -2.14%K -3.73%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-02 13:34
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -6.14%E -3.89%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -5.00%E -2.14%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-02 11:40
Betsson🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.69%EV -6.14%E -3.89%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.31%EV -5.00%E -2.14%K -3.73%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-02 11:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.38%EV -6.14%E -3.89%K -10.59%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 40.62%EV -6.22%E -2.69%K -4.75%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-02 11:40
Bovada🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.23%EV -1.98%E -1.20%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.77%EV -6.63%E -2.88%K -5.10%G +0.000%4.1%2026-10-02 13:30
William Hill🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -3.77%E -2.33%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV -6.63%E -2.88%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-02 11:55
888sport🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.36%E -2.71%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.63%E -2.88%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 11:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.36%E -2.71%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.63%E -2.88%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 13:05
888sport (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.36%E -2.71%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.63%E -2.88%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 13:05
BetMGM🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -4.36%E -2.71%K -7.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -6.63%E -2.88%K -5.10%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 13:20
Betway🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.95%E -3.10%K -8.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -6.63%E -2.88%K -5.10%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-02 11:50
theScore Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -6.74%E -4.29%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -6.63%E -2.88%K -5.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-10-02 11:40
DraftKings🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.80%EV -1.98%E -1.20%K -3.05%G +0.000%2.26I 44.25%NM 42.20%EV -8.25%E -3.65%K -6.55%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-02 12:14
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.77%E -2.33%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.66%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 11:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.77%E -2.33%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.66%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 13:24
Neds🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -3.77%E -2.33%K -6.08%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -8.66%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-02 13:24
Paddy Power🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.74%E -4.29%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.66%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 11:30
LeoVegas🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.74%E -4.29%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.66%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 11:40
Sky Bet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.74%E -4.29%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.66%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 11:35
BoyleSports🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.74%E -4.29%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.66%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 11:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.74%E -4.29%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.66%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 13:20
Coral🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.74%E -4.29%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.66%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 13:25
betano_uk🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.74%E -4.29%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.66%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 13:29
Bet Victor🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.74%E -4.29%K -11.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -8.66%E -3.85%K -6.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-10-02 13:32
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -9.11%E -5.96%K -17.19%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.69%EV -9.47%E -4.25%K -7.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-02 11:40
ReBet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.31%EV -9.11%E -5.96%K -17.19%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.69%EV -9.47%E -4.25%K -7.70%G +0.000%10.2%2026-10-02 11:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 59.14%EV -9.71%E -6.39%K -18.67%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.86%EV -10.69%E -4.86%K -8.91%G +0.000%11.2%2026-10-02 11:40
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 59.30%EV -10.30%E -6.82%K -20.20%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.70%EV -10.69%E -4.86%K -8.91%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-02 11:40
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (3)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 60.62%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.38%8.5%2026-10-02 13:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.52I 65.79%NM 60.62%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.38%8.5%2026-10-02 13:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.51I 66.23%NM 60.57%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.43%9.3%2026-10-02 12:50
Arbitraje (26 combinaciones) +0.18%DraftKings 1.65 (60.7%) / Unibet (NL) 2.55 (39.3%)Ver las 26 combinaciones
Jaume Munar (Local)Kyrian Jacquet (Visitante)Margen
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Virgin Bet🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)LiveScore Bet🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Unibet (NL)🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Grosvenor🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)TABtouch🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)BetRivers🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Casumo🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Unibet🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)betPARX🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
Bovada🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Svenska Spel🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Hard Rock Bet🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Virgin Bet🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)LiveScore Bet🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Unibet (NL)🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Grosvenor🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)TABtouch🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)BetRivers🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Casumo🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Unibet (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Unibet🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)betPARX🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)ATG (SE)🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%
DraftKings🎯 1.65 (60.7%)Svenska Spel🎯 2.55 (39.3%)+0.179%