Language:English
Marin Cilic v Valentin Vacherot
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marin Cilic (Local)
Prediction 35.97%2.78fair odd
EV -1.09%
Edge -0.397%
Kelly -0.624%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.52%35.87%36.04%37.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.612.612.7541.67%38.26%38.31%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Valentin Vacherot (Visit)
Prediction 64.03%1.56fair odd
EV -3.95%
Edge -2.63%
Kelly -7.90%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.83%64.13%63.96%65.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.421.461.471.5070.42%68.32%68.03%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marin Cilic (Local): 35.97%; Valentin Vacherot (Visit): 64.03%. For Marin Cilic (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.75, with an expected value of -1.09%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 35.29%EV -1.09%E -0.397%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.71%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-05-07 14:04 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -1.09%E -0.397%K -0.624%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 14:20 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.24%EV -2.17%E -0.798%K -1.26%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.76%EV -5.23%E -3.53%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-07 14:05 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -2.89%E -1.07%K -1.70%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -6.51%E -4.46%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-07 15:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.34%EV -3.25%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.66%EV -5.87%E -3.99%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 14:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.34%EV -3.25%E -1.21%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.66%EV -5.87%E -3.99%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-07 15:50 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -4.69%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -5.23%E -3.53%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-07 14:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.68%EV -4.69%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.32%EV -5.87%E -3.99%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-05-07 14:15 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 35.05%EV -4.69%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.95%EV -8.43%E -5.90%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-07 15:50 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -4.69%E -1.77%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -9.07%E -6.39%K -21.60%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-07 14:25 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.77%E -2.20%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-07 14:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 36.50%EV -6.13%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.50%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-07 14:05 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.61I 38.31%NM 35.71%EV -6.13%E -2.35%K -3.81%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.29%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-05-07 14:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.49%E -2.50%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-07 15:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -6.49%E -2.50%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -4.59%E -3.08%K -9.37%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-05-07 14:00 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.49%E -2.50%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.23%E -3.53%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -6.49%E -2.50%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -5.23%E -3.53%K -10.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-07 15:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.49%E -2.50%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-07 13:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -6.49%E -2.50%K -4.05%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -7.15%E -4.93%K -15.89%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-05-07 14:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -8.29%E -3.25%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -3.95%E -2.63%K -7.90%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-07 14:40 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.57%EV -8.29%E -3.25%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.43%EV -5.87%E -3.99%K -12.49%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-07 14:05 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.41%EV -8.29%E -3.25%K -5.35%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 63.59%EV -6.51%E -4.46%K -14.15%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-05-07 14:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -10.08%E -4.03%K -6.72%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -7.79%E -5.41%K -17.71%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-05-07 14:40 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 36.86%EV -11.88%E -4.85%K -8.19%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.14%EV -8.43%E -5.90%K -19.61%G +0.000% | 10.7% | 2026-05-07 14:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -13.68%E -5.70%K -9.77%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 62.83%EV -9.07%E -6.39%K -21.60%G +0.000% | 12.1% | 2026-05-07 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.46I 40.65%NM 36.76% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.24% | 10.6% | 2026-05-07 14:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 39.81% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 60.19% | 30.8% | 2026-05-07 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 39.81% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 60.19% | 30.8% | 2026-05-07 14:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.92I 52.08%NM 39.81% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 60.19% | 30.8% | 2026-05-07 14:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 40.73% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 59.27% | 37.2% | 2026-05-07 15:05 |