L’École des cotes

Federico Cinà v Alexander Blockx

Coup d’envoi : 2026-05-07 11:30 UTC

Cotes de clôture — probabilités calculées et espérance mathématique obtenues, selon le modèle sélectionné, à partir des derniers prix enregistrés avant le coup d’envoi. Le match ayant commencé, il ne s’agit pas de valeurs en direct. Évaluer la fiabilité des prévisions probabilistes de chaque modèle sur l’ensemble des matchs réglés →

Résultat du match

56 opérateurs (21 dans l’analyse )

Probabilité estimée de chaque issue selon le modèle : IQM

Federico Cinà (Local)

Prévision 19.67%5.08cote équitable
EV +9.39%
Avantage +1.69%
Kelly +2.06%
Croissance +0.193%

avec la cote maximale 5.56

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
16.92%19.87%19.60%24.55%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
3.754.744.765.5626.67%21.08%21.01%17.99%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Alexander Blockx (Visiteur)

Prévision 80.33%1.24cote équitable
EV +0.408%
Avantage +0.326%
Kelly +1.63%
Croissance +0.007%

avec la cote maximale 1.25

Distribution des prévisions des opérateurs
75.45%80.13%80.40%83.08%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM
Distribution des cotes
1.101.171.171.2590.91%85.20%85.47%80.00%MINIMUMMOYENNEMÉDIANEMAXIMUM

Cotes des opérateurs (56 opérateurs)

Nous ne sommes affiliés à aucun opérateur de paris et ne tirons aucun bénéfice des opérations réalisées auprès d’eux.

OpérateurLocal ▼VisiteurMargeMise à jour
DraftKings5.56I 17.99%NM 17.14%EV +9.39%E +1.69%K +2.06%G +0.193%1.15I 86.96%NM 82.86%EV -7.62%E -6.63%K -50.83%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-07 11:05
BoyleSports5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +8.21%E +1.49%K +1.82%G +0.150%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -10.03%E -8.96%K -83.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-07 11:05
Tipico (DE)5.50I 18.18%NM 16.92%EV +8.21%E +1.49%K +1.82%G +0.150%1.12I 89.29%NM 83.08%EV -10.03%E -8.96%K -83.62%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-07 11:05
Fliff5.35I 18.69%NM 17.18%EV +5.25%E +0.982%K +1.21%G +0.063%1.11I 90.09%NM 82.82%EV -10.84%E -9.76%K -98.53%G +0.000%8.8%2026-05-07 11:05
Unibet5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +4.27%E +0.806%K +0.993%G +0.042%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.82%E -5.88%K -42.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:05
ATG (SE)5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV +4.27%E +0.806%K +0.993%G +0.042%1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -6.82%E -5.88%K -42.63%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-07 11:05
Winamax (DE)5.20I 19.23%NM 17.72%EV +2.30%E +0.443%K +0.548%G +0.013%1.12I 89.29%NM 82.28%EV -10.03%E -8.96%K -83.62%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-07 11:05
TABtouch5.10I 19.61%NM 18.53%EV +0.336%E +0.066%K +0.082%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.47%EV -6.82%E -5.88%K -42.63%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 11:05
FanDuel5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.21%E -4.42%K -28.97%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-07 11:05
Casumo5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.02%E -5.14%K -35.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 11:05
Unibet (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.02%E -5.14%K -35.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 11:05
Unibet (NL)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.02%E -5.14%K -35.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 11:05
betPARX5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.02%E -5.14%K -35.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 11:05
Svenska Spel5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.02%E -5.14%K -35.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 11:05
Hard Rock Bet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.02%E -5.14%K -35.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 11:05
Unibet (UK)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.02%E -5.14%K -35.40%G +0.000%5.5%2026-05-07 11:04
NordicBet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.82%E -5.88%K -42.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 11:05
PointsBet (AU)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.83%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 81.17%EV -6.82%E -5.88%K -42.63%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-07 11:05
theScore Bet5.00I 20.00%NM 18.70%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 81.30%EV -7.62%E -6.63%K -50.83%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 11:05
LeoVegas5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.43%E -7.39%K -60.20%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 11:05
888sport5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.43%E -7.39%K -60.20%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 11:05
Paddy Power5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.43%E -7.39%K -60.20%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 11:05
888sport (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.43%E -7.39%K -60.20%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 11:05
Mr Green (SE)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -8.43%E -7.39%K -60.20%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 11:05
Winamax (FR)5.00I 20.00%NM 18.03%EV -1.63%E -0.326%K -0.408%G +0.000%1.10I 90.91%NM 81.97%EV -11.64%E -10.58%K -116.41%G +0.000%10.9%2026-05-07 11:05
Betsson4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -3.60%E -0.734%K -0.923%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.86%EV -6.82%E -5.88%K -42.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 11:04
BetRivers4.80I 20.83%NM 19.60%EV -5.57%E -1.16%K -1.46%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 80.40%EV -6.02%E -5.14%K -35.40%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-07 11:05
1xBet4.77I 20.96%NM 19.97%EV -6.16%E -1.29%K -1.63%G +0.000%1.19I 84.03%NM 80.03%EV -4.41%E -3.71%K -23.22%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-07 10:55
Pinnacle4.75I 21.05%NM 20.44%EV -6.55%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 79.56%EV -2.00%E -1.64%K -9.10%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-07 10:55
Betway4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -6.55%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 80.10%EV -5.21%E -4.42%K -28.97%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-07 11:05
Virgin Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.55%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -6.82%E -5.88%K -42.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-07 11:05
Grosvenor4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.55%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -6.82%E -5.88%K -42.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-07 11:05
LiveScore Bet4.75I 21.05%NM 19.63%EV -6.55%E -1.38%K -1.75%G +0.000%1.16I 86.21%NM 80.37%EV -6.82%E -5.88%K -42.63%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-07 11:05
LowVig.ag4.67I 21.41%NM 20.58%EV -8.12%E -1.74%K -2.21%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 79.42%EV -2.81%E -2.32%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-07 11:03
Fanatics4.65I 21.51%NM 19.83%EV -8.52%E -1.83%K -2.33%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.17%EV -7.62%E -6.63%K -50.83%G +0.000%8.5%2026-05-07 11:05
Ladbrokes (UK)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -9.50%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.21%E -4.42%K -28.97%G +0.000%6.5%2026-05-07 11:05
Coral4.60I 21.74%NM 20.28%EV -9.50%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.17I 85.47%NM 79.72%EV -6.02%E -5.14%K -35.40%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-07 11:05
LeoVegas (SE)4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -9.50%E -2.07%K -2.64%G +0.000%1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -7.62%E -6.63%K -50.83%G +0.000%8.7%2026-05-07 11:05
BetOnline.ag4.51I 22.17%NM 21.15%EV -11.27%E -2.50%K -3.21%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.85%EV -2.81%E -2.32%K -13.36%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-07 10:50
Bet Victor4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.47%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.21%E -4.42%K -28.97%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-07 11:04
PMU (FR)4.50I 22.22%NM 19.93%EV -11.47%E -2.55%K -3.28%G +0.000%1.12I 89.29%NM 80.07%EV -10.03%E -8.96%K -83.62%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-07 11:05
BetUS4.40I 22.73%NM 21.85%EV -13.44%E -3.05%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 78.15%EV -1.20%E -0.974%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.0%2026-05-07 10:40
Bally Bet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.57%EV -13.44%E -3.05%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.43%EV -2.81%E -2.32%K -13.36%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 11:00
SportsBet4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -13.44%E -3.05%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -3.61%E -3.01%K -18.04%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-07 11:01
Caesars4.40I 22.73%NM 21.15%EV -13.44%E -3.05%K -3.95%G +0.000%1.18I 84.75%NM 78.85%EV -5.21%E -4.42%K -28.97%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-07 11:05
Betr (AU)4.30I 23.26%NM 21.96%EV -15.40%E -3.58%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.21I 82.64%NM 78.04%EV -2.81%E -2.32%K -13.36%G +0.000%5.9%2026-05-07 10:50
Bet Right4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -15.40%E -3.58%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -3.61%E -3.01%K -18.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 11:00
NetBet (FR)4.30I 23.26%NM 21.82%EV -15.40%E -3.58%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 78.18%EV -3.61%E -3.01%K -18.04%G +0.000%6.6%2026-05-07 10:30
GTbets4.25I 23.53%NM 22.45%EV -16.39%E -3.86%K -5.04%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.55%EV -1.20%E -0.974%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.8%2026-05-07 10:26
Marathon Bet4.15I 24.10%NM 22.86%EV -18.35%E -4.42%K -5.83%G +0.000%1.23I 81.30%NM 77.14%EV -1.20%E -0.974%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-07 10:57
Codere (IT)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.93%EV -19.34%E -4.72%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 77.07%EV -2.00%E -1.64%K -9.10%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-07 10:40
Neds4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -19.34%E -4.72%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -3.61%E -3.01%K -18.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 10:40
Ladbrokes (AU)4.10I 24.39%NM 22.64%EV -19.34%E -4.72%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.20I 83.33%NM 77.36%EV -3.61%E -3.01%K -18.04%G +0.000%7.7%2026-05-07 10:40
William Hill4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -21.31%E -5.33%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV +0.408%E +0.326%K +1.63%G +0.007%5.0%2026-05-07 11:04
PlayUp4.00I 25.00%NM 23.66%EV -21.31%E -5.33%K -7.10%G +0.000%1.24I 80.65%NM 76.34%EV -0.395%E -0.319%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-07 11:03
Betclic (FR)3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -26.22%E -6.99%K -9.54%G +0.000%1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -2.00%E -1.64%K -9.10%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-07 10:58
Marge = Marge · I = Probabilité implicite · NM = Probabilité sans marge · EV = Espérance mathématique · E = Avantage · K = Critère de Kelly · G = Croissance du capital de jeu

Mise à jour indique le dernier changement de prix de chaque opérateur. Une heure ancienne signifie donc seulement que la cote n’a pas bougé, et non qu’elle est périmée. Les opérateurs absents du flux depuis environ 15 minutes sont normalement écartés ; les derniers prix enregistrés ne sont conservés que si le flux de tout le marché devient silencieux.

Plateformes d’échange (6)

OpérateurLocalVisiteurMarge ▲Mise à jour
Smarkets6.20I 16.13%NM 16.10%1.19I 84.03%NM 83.90%0.2%2026-05-07 11:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69%1.2%2026-05-07 11:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69%1.2%2026-05-07 11:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)5.40I 18.52%NM 18.31%1.21I 82.64%NM 81.69%1.2%2026-05-07 11:01
Matchbook6.60I 15.15%NM 14.84%1.15I 86.96%NM 85.16%2.1%2026-05-07 11:05
Novig5.75I 17.39%NM 16.18%1.11I 90.09%NM 83.82%7.5%2026-05-07 11:05