Language:English
Alexandre Muller v Botic van de Zandschulp
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Alexandre Muller (Local)
Prediction 43.98%2.27fair odd
EV +4.66%
Edge +1.96%
Kelly +3.38%
Growth +0.157%
assuming max odds 2.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.50%43.98%44.30%47.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.142.142.3851.28%46.76%46.73%42.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Botic van de Zandschulp (Visit)
Prediction 56.02%1.78fair odd
EV +0.845%
Edge +0.469%
Kelly +1.06%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.70%56.02%55.70%59.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.671.671.8062.50%59.79%59.88%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Alexandre Muller (Local): 43.98%; Botic van de Zandschulp (Visit): 56.02%. For Alexandre Muller (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.66%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 40.50%EV +4.66%E +1.96%K +3.38%G +0.157% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 59.50%EV -9.24%E -5.70%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-06 11:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 42.28%EV +0.264%E +0.116%K +0.206%G +0.001% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.72%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-06 11:37 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.06%E -0.469%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.86%EV -1.06%E -0.469%K -0.845%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -9.24%E -5.70%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-05-06 11:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -1.94%E -0.868%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -1.94%E -0.868%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -1.94%E -0.868%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -1.94%E -0.868%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -1.94%E -0.868%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -1.94%E -0.868%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -7.00%E -4.22%K -10.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -2.37%E -1.07%K -1.95%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 11:35 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 11:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.56%E -4.58%K -11.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.71%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.29%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -3.25%E -1.48%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -9.80%E -6.09%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-06 11:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.93%EV -4.13%E -1.90%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.07%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.93%EV -4.13%E -1.90%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.07%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.32%E -3.15%K -7.71%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.88%E -3.50%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -5.45%E -2.54%K -4.74%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -9.80%E -6.09%K -16.07%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -5.89%E -2.75%K -5.17%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -4.20%E -2.45%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV +0.845%E +0.469%K +1.06%G +0.009% | 3.2% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -1.96%E -1.12%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.20%E -2.45%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%EV -4.20%E -2.45%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -9.24%E -5.70%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55%EV -7.65%E -3.64%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.45%EV -9.24%E -5.70%K -14.90%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 44.65%EV -8.97%E -4.33%K -8.38%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.35%EV -6.44%E -3.86%K -9.61%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -9.85%E -4.81%K -9.38%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -1.96%E -1.12%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 44.66%EV -11.17%E -5.53%K -10.95%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 55.34%EV -8.68%E -5.32%K -13.78%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.67%EV -12.05%E -6.02%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -1.96%E -1.12%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.09%EV -12.05%E -6.02%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 53.91%EV -4.20%E -2.45%K -5.91%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.05%EV -12.05%E -6.02%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 54.95%EV -8.12%E -4.95%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 44.44%EV -12.05%E -6.02%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.56%EV -10.36%E -6.48%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-05-06 11:54 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.98I 50.51%NM 46.20%EV -12.93%E -6.53%K -13.19%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.80%EV -4.76%E -2.80%K -6.80%G +0.000% | 9.3% | 2026-05-06 11:48 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.95I 51.28%NM 47.30%EV -14.25%E -7.31%K -15.00%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 52.70%EV -1.96%E -1.12%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.50I 40.00%NM 39.90% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 60.10% | 0.2% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.30I 43.48%NM 43.35% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.65% | 0.3% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.34I 42.74%NM 42.36% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.64% | 0.9% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.32I 43.10%NM 42.57% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.43% | 1.2% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 45.23% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.77% | 1.4% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |
| Novig◎ | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 11:55 |