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Zachary Svajda v Marin Cilic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Zachary Svajda (Local)
Prediction 41.66%2.40fair odd
EV -0.025%
Edge -0.011%
Kelly -0.018%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.93%41.87%41.52%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.002.212.252.40100.00%45.17%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Marin Cilic (Visit)
Prediction 58.34%1.71fair odd
EV +2.69%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +3.53%
Growth +0.095%
assuming max odds 1.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
50.00%58.13%58.48%61.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.001.611.621.76100.00%62.12%61.73%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zachary Svajda (Local): 41.66%; Marin Cilic (Visit): 58.34%. For Marin Cilic (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.71. 6 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.76, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.69%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.90%EV -10.02%E -4.64%K -8.64%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.10%EV +2.69%E +1.53%K +3.53%G +0.095% | 3.1% | 2026-03-05 02:35 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -12.52%E -5.96%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV +2.10%E +1.20%K +2.80%G +0.059% | 4.8% | 2026-03-05 02:43 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -10.44%E -4.86%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV +1.52%E +0.873%K +2.05%G +0.031% | 4.0% | 2026-03-05 02:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -10.44%E -4.86%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV +1.52%E +0.873%K +2.05%G +0.031% | 4.0% | 2026-03-05 02:35 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.11I 47.39%NM 45.19%EV -12.11%E -5.74%K -10.91%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.81%EV +1.52%E +0.873%K +2.05%G +0.031% | 4.9% | 2026-03-05 02:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -12.52%E -5.96%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV +1.52%E +0.873%K +2.05%G +0.031% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 02:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -6.27%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -2.57%E -1.54%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-05 02:44 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.57%E -1.54%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -2.57%E -1.54%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-05 02:44 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -12.52%E -5.96%K -11.38%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -2.57%E -1.54%K -3.83%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-05 02:43 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -7.11%E -3.19%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -3.15%E -1.90%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 02:25 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.02I 49.50%NM 45.11%EV -15.85%E -7.85%K -15.54%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 54.89%EV -3.15%E -1.90%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-05 02:43 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -6.27%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -3.73%E -2.26%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-05 02:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -3.73%E -2.26%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-05 02:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -10.44%E -4.86%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -3.73%E -2.26%K -5.74%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.16%EV -6.27%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -4.32%E -2.63%K -6.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 02:44 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.02%E -2.20%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.90%E -3.01%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.02%E -2.20%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.90%E -3.01%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.02%E -2.20%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.90%E -3.01%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.02%E -2.20%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.90%E -3.01%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.02%E -2.20%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.90%E -3.01%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.69%EV -5.02%E -2.20%K -3.93%G +0.000% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 58.31%EV -4.90%E -3.01%K -7.78%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.08%EV -7.11%E -3.19%K -5.78%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.92%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.41%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.59%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 02:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -10.44%E -4.86%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-05 02:44 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -10.44%E -4.86%K -9.08%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -5.48%E -3.38%K -8.84%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-05 02:44 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.27%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.07%E -3.77%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -6.27%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -6.07%E -3.77%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.26%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.74%EV -6.07%E -3.77%K -9.94%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 42.33%EV -9.19%E -4.22%K -7.79%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.67%EV -6.65%E -4.16%K -11.08%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.87%EV -4.19%E -1.82%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 59.13%EV -7.23%E -4.55%K -12.26%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.72%EV -4.19%E -1.82%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 59.28%EV -7.82%E -4.95%K -13.48%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.55%EV -0.025%E -0.011%K -0.018%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.45%EV -8.40%E -5.35%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -1.28%E -0.538%K -0.931%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -8.40%E -5.35%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.57%EV -4.19%E -1.82%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 59.43%EV -8.40%E -5.35%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.40%E -5.35%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64%EV -8.36%E -3.80%K -6.96%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 58.36%EV -8.40%E -5.35%K -14.74%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -0.025%E -0.011%K -0.018%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -9.57%E -6.17%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-03-05 02:35 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -4.19%E -1.82%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -9.57%E -6.17%K -17.39%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.93%EV -0.025%E -0.011%K -0.018%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 61.07%EV -10.73%E -7.02%K -20.25%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -0.858%E -0.361%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -10.73%E -7.02%K -20.25%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 02:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -0.858%E -0.361%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -10.73%E -7.02%K -20.25%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -0.858%E -0.361%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -10.73%E -7.02%K -20.25%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -0.858%E -0.361%K -0.622%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -10.73%E -7.02%K -20.25%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-05 02:35 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 40.32%EV -6.27%E -2.79%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 59.68%EV -11.32%E -7.45%K -21.76%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -58.34%E -58.34%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 1.00I 100.00%NM 50.00%EV -41.66%E -41.66%K +0.000%G +0.000% | 100.0% | 2026-03-05 02:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90% | 1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10% | 0.4% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 0.5% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.40I 41.67%NM 41.46% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 58.54% | 0.5% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.48I 40.32%NM 40.10% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 59.90% | 0.6% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 38.46% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 61.54% | 1.6% | 2026-03-05 02:45 |
| Novig◎ | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 53.44% | 6.3% | 2026-03-05 02:43 |