Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Quentin Halys v Adam Walton

Kickoff: 2026-03-04 19:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

61 sportsbooks (23 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Quentin Halys (Local)

Prediction 63.15%1.58fair odd
EV -0.852%
Edge -0.543%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.54%63.10%63.13%64.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.501.501.5769.44%66.61%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Adam Walton (Visit)

Prediction 36.85%2.71fair odd
EV -0.509%
Edge -0.188%
Kelly -0.299%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.47%36.90%36.87%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.582.602.7041.67%38.81%38.46%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Quentin Halys (Local): 63.15%; Adam Walton (Visit): 36.85%. For Adam Walton (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.71. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.70, with an expected value of -0.509%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (61 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 61.89%EV -0.852%E -0.543%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 38.11%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-04 00:20
Coolbet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.40%EV -3.38%E -2.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.60%EV -2.35%E -0.887%K -1.42%G +0.000%3.1%2026-03-04 10:04
LowVig.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -3.38%E -2.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -3.46%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-04 17:35
BetOnline.ag🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13%EV -3.38%E -2.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87%EV -3.46%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000%3.5%2026-03-04 17:35
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 62.41%EV -3.38%E -2.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.59%EV -6.40%E -2.52%K -4.16%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-04 09:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.94%EV -3.38%E -2.21%K -6.37%G +0.000%2.49I 40.16%NM 38.06%EV -8.25%E -3.31%K -5.53%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-04 00:15
Pinnacle🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.98%EV -4.01%E -2.64%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.02%EV -0.509%E -0.188%K -0.299%G +0.000%2.8%2026-03-04 18:20
Winamax (DE)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.01%E -2.64%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-04 15:40
Betclic (FR)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 63.11%EV -4.01%E -2.64%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.89%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.3%2026-03-04 16:58
Unibet (UK)🎯1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.01%E -2.64%K -7.71%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 15:40
BetUS🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.64%E -3.07%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -2.35%E -0.887%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-04 18:20
Unibet (FR)🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.70%EV -4.64%E -3.07%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 36.30%EV -2.35%E -0.887%K -1.42%G +0.000%4.0%2026-03-04 18:20
Bovada🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.26%EV -4.64%E -3.07%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.74%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%4.7%2026-03-04 18:20
Bet Right🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 63.08%EV -4.64%E -3.07%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.58I 38.76%NM 36.92%EV -4.93%E -1.91%K -3.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-03-04 11:00
Betsson🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.64%E -3.07%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-04 10:55
NordicBet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%EV -4.64%E -3.07%K -9.10%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.4%2026-03-04 10:54
GTbets🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.46%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-04 18:20
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -3.46%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000%4.8%2026-03-04 15:40
theScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:05
Betway🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 09:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-03 16:15
Fanatics🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 10:55
888sport🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-03 17:31
Unibet (NL)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
Casumo🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
BetRivers🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
Grosvenor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
LeoVegas🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
betPARX🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
Bally Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:14
TABtouch🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
William Hill🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-03 17:50
Unibet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
ATG (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-03 18:15
Svenska Spel🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 11:15
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -4.19%E -1.61%K -2.62%G +0.000%5.1%2026-03-04 15:40
PlayUp🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 17:00
Everygame🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 09:40
Winamax (FR)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 15:39
Codere (IT)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.96%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%5.9%2026-03-04 17:00
BetMGM🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.87%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 37.13%EV -6.40%E -2.52%K -4.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-04 14:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.88%E -3.15%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 00:14
TAB🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.88%E -3.15%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 15:39
Caesars🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.50%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -7.88%E -3.15%K -5.25%G +0.000%6.7%2026-03-04 16:59
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.72%E -3.97%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 17:00
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -9.72%E -3.97%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.5%2026-03-04 17:00
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -5.27%E -3.52%K -10.55%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -11.56%E -4.82%K -8.26%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-04 07:19
FanDuel🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 64.27%EV -5.90%E -3.96%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.68I 37.31%NM 35.73%EV -1.25%E -0.465%K -0.742%G +0.000%4.4%2026-03-04 17:49
Betr (AU)🎯1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -5.90%E -3.96%K -12.05%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-04 18:20
SportsBet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 64.25%EV -6.54%E -4.42%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.66I 37.59%NM 35.75%EV -1.98%E -0.745%K -1.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-03-04 17:49
Fliff🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.54%E -4.42%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 17:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -6.54%E -4.42%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%6.8%2026-03-04 11:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.54%E -4.42%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.88%E -3.15%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 09:45
Coral🎯1.48I 67.57%NM 62.81%EV -6.54%E -4.42%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.19%EV -7.88%E -3.15%K -5.25%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 09:44
Tipico (DE)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.43%E -5.81%K -18.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 15:40
NetBet (FR)🎯1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -8.43%E -5.81%K -18.73%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -6.04%E -2.37%K -3.89%G +0.000%8.2%2026-03-04 17:00
Paddy Power🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -9.06%E -6.29%K -20.60%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -3.46%E -1.32%K -2.13%G +0.000%7.6%2026-03-04 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.40%2.72I 36.76%NM 36.60%0.5%2026-03-04 18:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77%0.7%2026-03-04 18:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 63.23%2.70I 37.04%NM 36.77%0.7%2026-03-04 18:20
Smarkets1.54I 64.94%NM 63.51%2.68I 37.31%NM 36.49%2.2%2026-03-04 18:20