Language:English
Karen Khachanov v Joao Fonseca
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Karen Khachanov (Local)
Prediction 43.51%2.30fair odd
EV -2.10%
Edge -0.932%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.31%43.66%43.26%45.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.162.152.2548.78%46.24%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Joao Fonseca (Visit)
Prediction 56.49%1.77fair odd
EV -0.581%
Edge -0.330%
Kelly -0.765%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.64%56.34%56.74%57.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.691.681.7660.61%59.33%59.52%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Karen Khachanov (Local): 43.51%; Joao Fonseca (Visit): 56.49%. For Joao Fonseca (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.76, with an expected value of -0.581%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (60 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -2.10%E -0.932%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -3.41%E -1.99%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.10%E -0.932%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.10%E -0.932%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-07 20:48 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -2.10%E -0.932%K -1.68%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.08%EV -3.40%E -1.53%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.92%EV -5.10%E -3.04%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-03-07 20:45 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 42.93%EV -3.40%E -1.53%K -2.79%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.07%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.19%EV -3.84%E -1.74%K -3.17%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.81%EV -5.10%E -3.04%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.88%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.12%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-07 20:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.10%E -3.04%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 20:38 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:44 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -4.27%E -1.94%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -6.23%E -3.75%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -5.14%E -2.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -4.54%E -2.68%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -5.14%E -2.36%K -4.36%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -6.23%E -3.75%K -9.44%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -5.58%E -2.57%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -3.97%E -2.34%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-03-07 20:50 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.19%EV -5.58%E -2.57%K -4.77%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.81%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -2.84%E -1.65%K -3.95%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.41%E -1.99%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.34%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -3.97%E -2.34%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-07 20:45 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -4.54%E -2.68%K -6.57%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.10%E -3.04%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.10%E -3.04%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -6.45%E -3.00%K -5.61%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -7.75%E -3.66%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -0.581%E -0.330%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-07 20:50 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -7.75%E -3.66%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -0.581%E -0.330%K -0.765%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-07 20:50 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -7.75%E -3.66%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.97%E -2.34%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 20:49 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -7.75%E -3.66%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.97%E -2.34%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 20:49 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -7.75%E -3.66%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.97%E -2.34%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 20:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -7.75%E -3.66%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.97%E -2.34%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 20:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -7.75%E -3.66%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -3.97%E -2.34%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-03-07 20:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -5.10%E -3.04%K -7.50%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-03-07 20:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 20:39 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.00%EV -8.62%E -4.11%K -7.84%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.00%EV -6.79%E -4.12%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-03-07 20:44 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 44.53%EV -9.50%E -4.56%K -8.79%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.47%EV -5.67%E -3.39%K -8.46%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-03-07 20:49 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.80%E -5.27%K -10.29%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -3.97%E -2.34%K -5.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-03-07 20:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-03-07 20:49 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-03-07 20:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-03-07 20:45 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-03-07 20:45 |
| Novig◎ | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68% | 2.6% | 2026-03-07 20:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33% | 2.7% | 2026-03-07 20:50 |