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Moez Echargui v Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Moez Echargui (Local)
Prediction 23.59%4.24fair odd
EV +3.31%
Edge +0.756%
Kelly +0.980%
Growth +0.032%
assuming max odds 4.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.70%23.59%23.56%25.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.654.044.004.3827.40%24.78%25.00%22.83%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Visit)
Prediction 76.41%1.31fair odd
EV -4.48%
Edge -3.59%
Kelly -17.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
74.64%76.41%76.44%78.30%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.231.221.2583.33%81.41%81.97%80.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Moez Echargui (Local): 23.59%; Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard (Visit): 76.41%. For Moez Echargui (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.24. 8 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.38, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.31%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.38I 22.83%NM 22.20%EV +3.31%E +0.756%K +0.980%G +0.032% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 77.80%EV -4.48%E -3.59%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-02-23 09:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV +2.13%E +0.492%K +0.640%G +0.014% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -8.30%E -6.92%K -41.52%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-02-23 10:08 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV +1.42%E +0.331%K +0.431%G +0.006% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -6.78%E -5.55%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-02-23 10:08 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV +0.716%E +0.168%K +0.219%G +0.002% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -6.01%E -4.89%K -26.14%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-23 10:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 4.27I 23.42%NM 22.36%EV +0.716%E +0.168%K +0.219%G +0.002% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.64%EV -6.01%E -4.89%K -26.14%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-02-23 10:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.59%EV +0.245%E +0.058%K +0.075%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 77.41%EV -5.25%E -4.23%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-02-23 10:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.30%EV +0.245%E +0.058%K +0.075%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.70%EV -6.78%E -5.55%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-02-23 10:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.02%EV +0.245%E +0.058%K +0.075%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 77.98%EV -8.30%E -6.92%K -41.52%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-02-23 09:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 4.22I 23.70%NM 22.57%EV -0.463%E -0.110%K -0.144%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 77.43%EV -6.01%E -4.89%K -26.14%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-23 10:07 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.72%EV -2.11%E -0.509%K -0.671%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.28%EV -6.78%E -5.55%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-02-23 10:00 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.44%EV -4.47%E -1.10%K -1.47%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 76.56%EV -5.25%E -4.23%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-02-23 10:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.03I 24.81%NM 23.67%EV -4.94%E -1.23%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.33%EV -4.48%E -3.59%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-02-23 10:10 |
| William Hill🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -4.48%E -3.59%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-02-23 10:07 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.78%E -5.55%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-23 10:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.78%E -5.55%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-23 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.78%E -5.55%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-23 10:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.78%E -5.55%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-23 09:59 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.78%E -5.55%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-23 10:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.78%E -5.55%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-23 10:10 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.37%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 76.63%EV -6.78%E -5.55%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-23 10:09 |
| Everygame🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -5.65%E -1.41%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -8.30%E -6.92%K -41.52%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-02-23 09:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.30%EV -6.83%E -1.73%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 76.70%EV -8.30%E -6.92%K -41.52%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-23 10:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -8.01%E -2.05%K -2.76%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -5.25%E -4.23%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-23 10:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.51%EV -9.19%E -2.39%K -3.22%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.49%EV -4.48%E -3.59%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-02-23 10:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -10.37%E -2.73%K -3.70%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.25%EV -4.48%E -3.59%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-02-23 10:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -11.55%E -3.08%K -4.20%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -6.78%E -5.55%K -30.80%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-02-23 10:06 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -12.73%E -3.44%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.48%E -3.59%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-23 10:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -12.73%E -3.44%K -4.71%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.75%EV -4.48%E -3.59%K -17.93%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-02-23 10:09 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.36%EV -13.91%E -3.81%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.64%EV -5.25%E -4.23%K -21.87%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-02-23 10:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 4.60I 21.74%NM 21.50% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 78.50% | 1.1% | 2026-02-23 10:10 |