Language:English
Mariano Navone v Raphael Collignon
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Mariano Navone (Local)
Prediction 43.16%2.32fair odd
EV -1.17%
Edge -0.511%
Kelly -0.908%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.29
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.71%43.30%43.15%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.102.192.202.2947.62%45.70%45.45%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Raphael Collignon (Visit)
Prediction 56.84%1.76fair odd
EV -1.66%
Edge -0.960%
Kelly -2.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.73
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%56.70%56.85%58.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.611.681.691.7362.11%59.43%59.17%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Mariano Navone (Local): 43.16%; Raphael Collignon (Visit): 56.84%. For Mariano Navone (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.32. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.29, with an expected value of -1.17%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.29I 43.67%NM 42.46%EV -1.17%E -0.511%K -0.908%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.54%EV -3.93%E -2.33%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-08-13 19:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.18%EV -2.90%E -1.29%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.82%EV -2.80%E -1.64%K -3.94%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-08-13 20:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.60%EV -2.90%E -1.29%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.40%EV -5.07%E -3.04%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-13 13:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -2.90%E -1.29%K -2.32%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.29%EV -8.48%E -5.27%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-08-13 20:40 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.58%EV -3.33%E -1.49%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 56.42%EV -1.66%E -0.960%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-08-13 19:14 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -3.33%E -1.49%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -3.93%E -2.33%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-13 20:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.00%EV -3.33%E -1.49%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.00%EV -3.93%E -2.33%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-13 20:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.04%EV -4.62%E -2.09%K -3.82%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.96%EV -5.07%E -3.04%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-12 15:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -4.50%E -2.68%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-13 04:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.07%E -3.04%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-13 16:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.07%E -3.04%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-13 17:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.07%E -3.04%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-13 19:15 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.07%E -3.04%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-13 19:09 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.07%E -3.04%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-13 19:15 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.07%E -3.04%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-13 19:15 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.01%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.99%EV -5.64%E -3.40%K -8.55%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-13 19:09 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.21%E -3.76%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-13 19:24 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.21%E -3.76%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-13 18:44 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.21%E -3.76%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-13 20:48 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -5.06%E -2.30%K -4.21%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -6.21%E -3.76%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-13 20:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -5.92%E -2.71%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -4.50%E -2.68%K -6.62%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-13 19:24 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:30 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:29 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:29 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:29 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:29 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:29 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -6.78%E -3.14%K -5.85%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -3.37%E -1.98%K -4.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-13 15:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -3.93%E -2.33%K -5.70%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-13 15:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.21%E -3.76%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-13 18:44 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -7.21%E -3.35%K -6.27%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -6.21%E -3.76%K -9.55%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-08-13 18:45 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -9.37%E -4.46%K -8.52%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -1.66%E -0.960%K -2.28%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-13 20:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 2.38I 42.02%NM 41.95% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 58.05% | 0.2% | 2026-08-13 20:50 |