Language:English
Camilo Ugo Carabelli v Miomir Kecmanovic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local)
Prediction 27.04%3.70fair odd
EV +3.27%
Edge +0.857%
Kelly +1.16%
Growth +0.038%
assuming max odds 3.82
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.39%26.99%27.08%29.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.423.383.8231.25%29.26%29.59%26.18%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Miomir Kecmanovic (Visit)
Prediction 72.96%1.37fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -1.11%
Kelly -4.28%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.80%73.01%72.92%74.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.291.311.311.3577.52%76.05%76.05%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local): 27.04%; Miomir Kecmanovic (Visit): 72.96%. For Camilo Ugo Carabelli (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.70. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.82, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.27%.
Sportsbook Odds (40 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.82I 26.18%NM 25.39%EV +3.27%E +0.857%K +1.16%G +0.038% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 74.61%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-13 17:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.89%EV +1.38%E +0.368%K +0.502%G +0.007% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 74.11%EV -4.42%E -3.37%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-08-13 17:29 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.65%EV +1.11%E +0.297%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-13 17:15 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.65%EV +1.11%E +0.297%K +0.406%G +0.005% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.35%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-13 17:14 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -2.67%E -0.743%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-13 13:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.58I 27.93%NM 26.64%EV -3.21%E -0.898%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.36%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-13 17:14 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.84%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 72.16%EV -1.50%E -1.11%K -4.28%G +0.000% | 2.6% | 2026-08-13 17:34 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.42%E -3.37%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-13 17:34 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -4.42%E -3.37%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-13 17:59 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 09:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 17:19 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 17:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 17:19 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -5.38%E -1.54%K -2.15%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-13 17:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -6.73%E -1.95%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-13 17:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.44I 29.07%NM 27.73%EV -7.00%E -2.03%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.27%EV -3.69%E -2.79%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-13 13:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.81%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.19%EV -4.42%E -3.37%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-13 10:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-13 10:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-13 09:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.51%EV -8.08%E -2.38%K -3.37%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.49%EV -5.88%E -4.55%K -20.26%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-13 17:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.36I 29.76%NM 28.21%EV -9.16%E -2.73%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.79%EV -3.69%E -2.79%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 17:34 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -9.43%E -2.82%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -4.42%E -3.37%K -14.24%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-13 16:29 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.14%EV -10.24%E -3.09%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.86%EV -5.15%E -3.96%K -17.15%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-13 17:35 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:25 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:25 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:24 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:25 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:25 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:24 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:25 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:25 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:24 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:25 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:25 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -10.78%E -3.27%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-13 13:24 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -12.14%E -3.73%K -5.39%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -2.96%E -2.22%K -8.96%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-13 09:50 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.20%EV -13.49%E -4.21%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.80%EV -3.69%E -2.79%K -11.52%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-08-13 13:24 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ProphetX◎ | 3.90I 25.64%NM 25.00% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.00% | 2.6% | 2026-08-13 18:10 |