Modelo predeterminadoMedia intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Andrey Rublev v Roman Safiullin

2026-10-03 03:00 UTC — ATP China Open

Resultado del partido

59 corredores (20 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada)

Andrey Rublev (Local)

Predicción 56.04%1.78momio equitativo
EV -3.61%
Ventaja -2.10%
Kelly -5.02%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.72

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
54.97%56.10%56.03%57.38%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.561.671.671.7264.10%59.75%59.88%58.14%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Roman Safiullin (Visitante)

Predicción 43.96%2.27momio equitativo
EV -1.96%
Ventaja -0.881%
Kelly -1.60%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.23

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
42.62%43.90%43.97%45.03%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
2.002.162.152.2350.00%46.38%46.51%44.84%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.

Para Resultado del partido, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estima estas probabilidades: Andrey Rublev (Local): 56.04%; Roman Safiullin (Visitante): 43.96%. Para Roman Safiullin (Visitante), esa estimación equivale a momios decimales justos de 2.27. Ningún corredor elegible ofrece momios superiores a ese nivel: los mejores momios disponibles son 2.23, con un valor esperado de -1.96%; no producen valor esperado positivo.

Momios de las casas de apuestas (59 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteMargenActualizado
Pinnacle🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 56.46%EV -3.61%E -2.10%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 43.54%EV -1.96%E -0.881%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.0%2026-10-01 17:45
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 55.44%EV -3.61%E -2.10%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.56%EV -5.92%E -2.77%K -5.19%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 19:29
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.61%E -2.10%K -5.02%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-10-01 19:30
1xBet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.38%EV -4.17%E -2.44%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.21I 45.25%NM 43.62%EV -2.84%E -1.29%K -2.35%G +0.000%3.7%2026-10-01 17:34
LowVig.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.17%E -2.44%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-01 19:14
BetOnline.ag🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.17%E -2.44%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-01 19:19
BetAnything🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.17%E -2.44%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%3.9%2026-10-01 19:25
Bovada🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.17%E -2.44%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 17:34
Coolbet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.60%E -2.12%K -3.93%G +0.000%4.9%2026-10-01 19:35
NordicBet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 16:10
Betsson🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 16:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 19:03
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.74%E -2.79%K -6.76%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 16:10
Fanatics🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.30%E -3.13%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 16:10
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.30%E -3.13%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%5.7%2026-10-01 16:10
theScore Bet🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.41%EV -5.30%E -3.13%K -7.67%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.59%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 16:10
DraftKings🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.0%2026-10-01 15:40
Bet Right🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%EV -4.16%E -1.91%K -3.53%G +0.000%5.4%2026-10-01 17:49
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.36%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.64%EV -4.60%E -2.12%K -3.93%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-01 17:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 19:34
PlayUp🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.0%2026-10-01 17:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 16:10
Neds🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 18:40
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.56%EV -5.86%E -3.49%K -8.61%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 18:40
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:45
William Hill🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:45
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:45
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:45
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:30
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:30
Bally Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:29
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:30
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:29
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:29
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:30
BetRivers🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:30
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:30
Svenska Spel🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:30
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:30
betPARX🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:34
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%5.3%2026-10-01 17:30
BetMGM🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-01 18:40
Paddy Power🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 19:30
Sky Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 20:00
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 17:45
betano_uk🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 18:54
Bet Victor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.42%E -3.84%K -9.58%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-01 18:55
Betway🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.54%E -4.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.28%E -1.49%K -2.74%G +0.000%6.1%2026-10-01 17:35
Coral🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.54%E -4.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 18:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.58%EV -7.54%E -4.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.42%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 18:40
LeoVegas🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 56.23%EV -7.54%E -4.57%K -11.60%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 43.77%EV -6.80%E -3.21%K -6.07%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-01 17:45
ReBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 55.43%EV -8.10%E -4.94%K -12.65%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 44.57%EV -10.32%E -5.06%K -9.92%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-01 16:10
GTbets🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 56.88%EV -8.66%E -5.31%K -13.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.12%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-01 15:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.03%EV -9.22%E -5.69%K -14.87%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.97%EV -5.48%E -2.55%K -4.77%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 16:16
Winamax (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 55.25%EV -9.22%E -5.69%K -14.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.75%EV -12.08%E -6.04%K -12.08%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-01 16:10
PMU (FR)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 56.60%EV -9.78%E -6.07%K -16.03%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-01 17:30
Unibet (FR)🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 57.38%EV -12.58%E -8.06%K -22.47%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.62%EV -7.68%E -3.66%K -6.98%G +0.000%11.7%2026-10-01 16:09
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (5)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 56.85%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.15%3.5%2026-10-01 19:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 56.85%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.15%3.5%2026-10-01 19:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.70I 58.82%NM 56.85%2.24I 44.64%NM 43.15%3.5%2026-10-01 19:10
Matchbook◎1.61I 62.11%NM 56.37%2.08I 48.08%NM 43.63%10.2%2026-10-01 19:39
Smarkets◎1.62I 61.73%NM 55.12%1.99I 50.25%NM 44.88%12.0%2026-10-01 17:40