Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Terence Atmane v Jack Draper

Kickoff: 2026-08-04 19:06 UTC

Final: Terence Atmane 2–1 Jack Draper

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

64 sportsbooks (21 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Terence Atmane (Local)

Prediction 34.25%2.92fair odd
EV -0.669%
Edge -0.231%
Kelly -0.352%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.18%34.31%34.21%35.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.752.792.9038.46%36.30%35.91%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Jack Draper (Visit)

Prediction 65.75%1.52fair odd
EV -2.69%
Edge -1.82%
Kelly -5.61%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.48

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.04%65.69%65.79%66.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.441.441.4871.43%69.53%69.44%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Terence Atmane (Local): 34.25%; Jack Draper (Visit): 65.75%. For Terence Atmane (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.92. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.90, with an expected value of -0.669%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (64 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Unibet (FR)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 33.18%EV -0.669%E -0.231%K -0.352%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.82%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%3.9%2026-08-04 18:20
FanDuel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.18%EV -1.35%E -0.470%K -0.720%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.82%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 18:54
DraftKings🎯2.87I 34.84%NM 33.26%EV -1.70%E -0.591%K -0.907%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.74%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-04 19:04
Coolbet🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -2.38%E -0.836%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.35%E -2.28%K -7.13%G +0.000%3.1%2026-08-04 19:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.87%EV -2.38%E -0.836%K -1.29%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 66.13%EV -4.01%E -2.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.6%2026-08-04 18:49
Pinnacle🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 34.26%EV -2.72%E -0.959%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.74%EV -2.69%E -1.82%K -5.61%G +0.000%2.8%2026-08-04 18:20
SportsBet🎯2.84I 35.21%NM 33.49%EV -2.72%E -0.959%K -1.48%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.51%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-04 19:05
LowVig.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -2.69%E -1.82%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-04 18:24
BetOnline.ag🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -2.69%E -1.82%K -5.61%G +0.000%3.3%2026-08-04 18:25
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 18:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 18:50
ReBet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 18:19
BetUS🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-04 18:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 18:34
Virgin Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 18:35
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 18:49
LiveScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 66.04%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-04 18:35
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:30
Grosvenor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:34
ATG (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:35
betPARX🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:34
TABtouch🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:35
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:35
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:34
Unibet (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:35
BetRivers🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:35
BetMGM🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-03 21:35
theScore Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.81%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 66.19%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-04 18:50
Paddy Power🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -4.09%E -1.46%K -2.27%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.67%EV -7.95%E -5.68%K -19.88%G +0.000%7.1%2026-08-04 18:55
1xBet🎯2.77I 36.10%NM 34.52%EV -5.12%E -1.85%K -2.89%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 65.48%EV -4.01%E -2.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-04 18:49
BetAnything🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.47I 68.03%NM 65.17%EV -3.35%E -2.28%K -7.13%G +0.000%4.4%2026-08-04 18:55
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:49
NordicBet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:55
Betsson🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-04 18:55
BoyleSports🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 18:14
Betr (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 19:05
Sky Bet🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 17:30
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 03:49
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-04 17:30
Fanatics🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.21%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.43I 69.93%NM 65.79%EV -5.98%E -4.18%K -13.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-04 18:50
Caesars🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.05%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.95%EV -6.64%E -4.67%K -15.80%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-02 14:09
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.95%E -5.68%K -19.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-03 21:34
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.73%EV -5.81%E -2.11%K -3.32%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 66.27%EV -7.95%E -5.68%K -19.88%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-03 21:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.74I 36.50%NM 34.61%EV -6.15%E -2.24%K -3.53%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.39%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 18:35
Dabble (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.10%EV -7.52%E -2.79%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.90%EV -4.01%E -2.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-04 18:20
Neds🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.52%E -2.79%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-03 21:35
PlayUp🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.52%E -2.79%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-04 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.52%E -2.79%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.67%E -3.22%K -10.37%G +0.000%6.0%2026-08-03 21:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.31%EV -7.52%E -2.79%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.69%EV -7.30%E -5.17%K -17.79%G +0.000%8.0%2026-08-04 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.52%E -2.79%K -4.42%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -7.95%E -5.68%K -19.88%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-04 05:04
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.21%EV -9.23%E -3.48%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.79%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-04 05:05
LeoVegas🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.89%EV -9.23%E -3.48%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.42I 70.42%NM 65.11%EV -6.64%E -4.67%K -15.80%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-04 18:55
Fliff🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 34.73%EV -9.23%E -3.48%K -5.60%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 65.27%EV -7.30%E -5.17%K -17.79%G +0.000%8.7%2026-08-04 19:04
888sport (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.26%E -3.92%K -6.33%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 19:05
888sport🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.26%E -3.92%K -6.33%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 19:05
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.26%E -3.92%K -6.33%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 19:04
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -10.26%E -3.92%K -6.33%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%7.6%2026-08-04 19:04
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.96%EV -10.94%E -4.21%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 64.04%EV -4.01%E -2.75%K -8.71%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-04 05:00
Bet Victor🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.94%E -4.21%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-04 18:45
betano_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -10.94%E -4.21%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 64.36%EV -5.32%E -3.70%K -12.10%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-04 18:46
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -10.94%E -4.21%K -6.84%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.00%EV -7.95%E -5.68%K -19.88%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-04 19:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (7)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.92I 34.25%NM 34.09%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.91%0.5%2026-08-04 19:05
Matchbook2.90I 34.48%NM 34.24%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.76%0.7%2026-08-04 19:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%0.9%2026-08-04 19:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.92I 34.25%NM 33.94%1.50I 66.67%NM 66.06%0.9%2026-08-04 19:05
ProphetX2.84I 35.21%NM 34.71%1.51I 66.23%NM 65.29%1.4%2026-08-04 19:05
Novig2.99I 33.44%NM 32.96%1.47I 68.03%NM 67.04%1.5%2026-08-04 18:55
Smarkets2.88I 34.72%NM 33.94%1.48I 67.57%NM 66.06%2.3%2026-08-04 18:45

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