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Marco Trungelliti v Hamad Medjedovic
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Marco Trungelliti (Local)
Prediction 29.47%3.39fair odd
EV -1.27%
Edge -0.380%
Kelly -0.541%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 3.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.73%29.54%29.50%31.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.133.053.3533.90%31.90%32.79%29.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Hamad Medjedovic (Visit)
Prediction 70.53%1.42fair odd
EV -2.67%
Edge -1.93%
Kelly -7.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.38
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.60%70.46%70.50%71.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.361.361.3875.19%73.56%73.53%72.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Marco Trungelliti (Local): 29.47%; Hamad Medjedovic (Visit): 70.53%. For Marco Trungelliti (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.39. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.35, with an expected value of -1.27%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.87%EV -1.27%E -0.380%K -0.541%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 71.13%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 3.4% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15%EV -1.86%E -0.559%K -0.799%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.85%EV -3.38%E -2.46%K -9.12%G +0.000% | 3.0% | 2026-04-13 13:59 |
| William Hill🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.75%E -0.832%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.75%E -0.832%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.75%E -0.832%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -2.75%E -0.832%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.22%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.22%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.08%E -3.00%K -11.34%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.35%EV -4.22%E -1.30%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.65%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.67%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.33%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Coral🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -5.69%E -1.78%K -2.59%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -7.17%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 29.69%EV -7.17%E -2.27%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.31%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV -10.11%E -3.32%K -4.93%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -2.67%E -1.93%K -7.03%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -11.59%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -11.59%E -3.86%K -5.79%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.20%E -4.66%K -18.78%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.40%EV -13.06%E -4.43%K -6.70%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.60%EV -4.79%E -3.55%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.25I 30.77%NM 30.41% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 69.59% | 1.2% | 2026-04-13 14:00 |