StandardmodellInterkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Carlos Alcaraz v Otto Virtanen

Matchstart: 2026-04-14 14:10 UTC

Slutodds — de beräknade sannolikheterna och väntevärdet från de sista odds som registrerades före matchstart, enligt den valda modellen. Matchen har börjat, så siffrorna är inte aktuella realtidsvärden. Bedöm tillförlitligheten hos varje modells sannolikhetsprognoser mot utfallen i samtliga avgjorda matcher →

Matchresultat

55 spelbolag (21 i analysen )

Beräknad sannolikhet för varje utfall enligt modellen: Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista)

Carlos Alcaraz (Hemma)

Prognos 93.88%1.07rättvist odds
EV -3.30%
Fördel -3.21%
Kelly -110.07%
Tillväxt +0.000%

med antagandet om högsta odds 1.03

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
90.74%93.86%93.83%96.63%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
1.011.021.011.0399.01%98.50%99.01%97.09%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Otto Virtanen (Borta)

Prognos 6.12%16.34rättvist odds
EV +77.44%
Fördel +2.67%
Kelly +2.77%
Tillväxt +2.14%

med antagandet om högsta odds 29.00

Fördelning av spelbolagens sannolikhetsprognoser
3.37%6.14%6.17%9.26%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.
Oddsfördelning
10.0015.4415.0029.0010.00%6.48%6.67%3.45%MIN.MEDELVÄRDEMEDIANMAX.

Vid de sista oddsen före start uppskattade Interkvartilmedelvärde (Kurerad lista) för Matchresultat: Carlos Alcaraz (Hemma): 93.88%; Otto Virtanen (Borta): 6.12%. För Otto Virtanen (Borta) motsvarade uppskattningen ett rättvist decimalodds på 16.34. 12 spelbolag erbjöd slutodds över den nivån; bästa odds var 29.00, motsvarande ett positivt väntevärde på +77.44%.

Spelbolagsodds (55 spelbolag)

Vi är inte knutna till något spelbolag och får ingen ersättning för transaktioner som genomförs hos dem.

SpelbolagHemmaBorta ▼MarginalUppdaterat
DraftKings🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +77.44%E +2.67%K +2.77%G +2.14%2.5%2026-04-14 14:05
FanDuel🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +40.73%E +1.77%K +1.85%G +0.754%2.4%2026-04-14 14:05
Sky Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +40.73%E +1.77%K +1.85%G +0.754%2.4%2026-04-14 14:05
Pinnacle🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 95.63%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%22.54I 4.44%NM 4.37%EV +37.91%E +1.68%K +1.76%G +0.667%1.5%2026-04-14 14:05
Winamax (DE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +28.49%E +1.36%K +1.42%G +0.406%3.8%2026-04-14 14:05
Betclic (FR)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +22.37%E +1.12%K +1.18%G +0.263%3.0%2026-04-14 14:05
theScore Bet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +16.25%E +0.855%K +0.903%G +0.147%3.3%2026-04-14 14:05
Betway🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +16.25%E +0.855%K +0.903%G +0.147%4.3%2026-04-14 14:05
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +10.13%E +0.563%K +0.596%G +0.060%3.6%2026-04-14 14:05
Bovada🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +10.13%E +0.563%K +0.596%G +0.060%4.6%2026-04-14 13:58
1xBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.51%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%17.40I 5.75%NM 5.49%EV +6.46%E +0.371%K +0.394%G +0.025%4.8%2026-04-14 14:05
BoyleSports🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +4.02%E +0.236%K +0.251%G +0.010%3.0%2026-04-14 14:05
Marathon Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.15%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%16.25I 6.15%NM 5.85%EV -0.574%E -0.035%K -0.038%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 14:00
ReBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -2.10%E -0.131%K -0.140%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 13:59
NetBet (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -2.10%E -0.131%K -0.140%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 14:05
LowVig.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.83%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.17%EV -5.16%E -0.333%K -0.356%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-14 14:05
BetOnline.ag🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.83%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.17%EV -5.16%E -0.333%K -0.356%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-14 14:05
Coral🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-14 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-14 14:05
Unibet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Unibet (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Unibet (NL)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
TABtouch🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
LeoVegas🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Grosvenor🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Casumo🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
BetRivers🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Neds🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
ATG (SE)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Bally Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:04
betPARX🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Svenska Spel🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Coolbet🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.39%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%14.40I 6.94%NM 6.61%EV -11.89%E -0.826%K -0.888%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 14:05
Bet Right🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -14.34%E -1.02%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 14:05
Codere (IT)🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -14.34%E -1.02%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-14 14:01
PlayUp🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -20.46%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Paddy Power🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -20.46%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Fanatics🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -20.46%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 14:05
SportsBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -20.46%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Caesars🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -20.46%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 14:02
Betr (AU)🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -23.52%E -1.88%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-14 14:05
NordicBet🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -23.52%E -1.88%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 14:04
Betsson🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -23.52%E -1.88%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 14:05
William Hill🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 14:05
888sport🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 13:59
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 13:59
888sport (SE)🎯1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 13:59
BetMGM🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-14 14:04
TAB🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 14:05
Everygame🎯1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -32.70%E -2.97%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-14 13:59
Bet Victor🎯1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -38.81%E -3.88%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 14:04
Marginal = Marginal · I = Implicit sannolikhet · NM = Marginalrensad sannolikhet · EV = Väntevärde · E = Fördel · K = Kelly-kriteriet · G = Spelkapitalets tillväxt

Uppdaterat anger när respektive spelbolag senast ändrade sitt odds. En äldre tidpunkt betyder därför att oddset inte har rört sig, inte att det är inaktuellt. Spelbolag som inte har observerats under de senaste cirka 15 minuterna utesluts normalt; endast om dataflödet för en hel marknad tystnar visas i stället de senast registrerade oddsen.

Spelbörser (7)

SpelbolagHemmaBortaMarginal ▲Uppdaterat
Matchbook1.03I 97.09%NM 96.68%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.32%0.4%2026-04-14 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.45%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55%0.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.45%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55%0.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.45%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55%0.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Smarkets1.02I 98.04%NM 96.36%27.03I 3.70%NM 3.64%1.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Novig1.02I 98.04%NM 96.27%26.32I 3.80%NM 3.73%1.8%2026-04-14 14:05
ProphetX1.02I 98.04%NM 96.23%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.77%1.9%2026-04-14 14:05