A Escola das Odds

Carlos Alcaraz v Otto Virtanen

Início: 2026-04-14 14:10 UTC

Odds de fecho — as probabilidades calculadas e o valor esperado com base nas últimas cotações registadas antes do início, segundo o modelo selecionado. O jogo já começou, pelo que estes valores não são atuais. Avaliar a fiabilidade das previsões probabilísticas de cada modelo face aos resultados de todos os jogos concluídos →

Frente a frente

55 casas de apostas (21 na análise )

Probabilidade estimada de cada resultado, segundo o modelo: IQM

Carlos Alcaraz (Local)

Previsão 93.88%1.07odd justa
EV -3.30%
Vantagem -3.21%
Kelly -110.07%
Crescimento +0.000%

pressupondo odds máximas de 1.03

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
90.74%93.86%93.83%96.63%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
1.011.021.011.0399.01%98.50%99.01%97.09%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Otto Virtanen (Visitante)

Previsão 6.12%16.34odd justa
EV +77.44%
Vantagem +2.67%
Kelly +2.77%
Crescimento +2.14%

pressupondo odds máximas de 29.00

Distribuição das previsões das casas de apostas
3.37%6.14%6.17%9.26%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX
Distribuição das odds
10.0015.4415.0029.0010.00%6.48%6.67%3.45%MINMÉDIAMEDIANAMAX

Odds das casas de apostas (55 casas de apostas)

Não temos qualquer vínculo com casas de apostas e não recebemos nada pelas ações realizadas junto delas.

Casa de apostasLocalVisitante ▼MargemAtualização
DraftKings1.01I 99.01%NM 96.63%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%29.00I 3.45%NM 3.37%EV +77.44%E +2.67%K +2.77%G +2.14%2.5%2026-04-14 14:05
FanDuel1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +40.73%E +1.77%K +1.85%G +0.754%2.4%2026-04-14 14:05
Sky Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 95.75%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%23.00I 4.35%NM 4.25%EV +40.73%E +1.77%K +1.85%G +0.754%2.4%2026-04-14 14:05
Pinnacle1.03I 97.09%NM 95.63%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%22.54I 4.44%NM 4.37%EV +37.91%E +1.68%K +1.76%G +0.667%1.5%2026-04-14 14:05
Winamax (DE)1.01I 99.01%NM 95.41%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%21.00I 4.76%NM 4.59%EV +28.49%E +1.36%K +1.42%G +0.406%3.8%2026-04-14 14:05
Betclic (FR)1.02I 98.04%NM 95.15%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%20.00I 5.00%NM 4.85%EV +22.37%E +1.12%K +1.18%G +0.263%3.0%2026-04-14 14:05
theScore Bet1.02I 98.04%NM 94.91%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.09%EV +16.25%E +0.855%K +0.903%G +0.147%3.3%2026-04-14 14:05
Betway1.01I 99.01%NM 94.95%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%19.00I 5.26%NM 5.05%EV +16.25%E +0.855%K +0.903%G +0.147%4.3%2026-04-14 14:05
PointsBet (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 94.64%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.36%EV +10.13%E +0.563%K +0.596%G +0.060%3.6%2026-04-14 14:05
Bovada1.01I 99.01%NM 94.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.31%EV +10.13%E +0.563%K +0.596%G +0.060%4.6%2026-04-14 13:58
1xBet1.01I 99.01%NM 94.51%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%17.40I 5.75%NM 5.49%EV +6.46%E +0.371%K +0.394%G +0.025%4.8%2026-04-14 14:05
BoyleSports1.03I 97.09%NM 94.29%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%17.00I 5.88%NM 5.71%EV +4.02%E +0.236%K +0.251%G +0.010%3.0%2026-04-14 14:05
Marathon Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 94.15%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%16.25I 6.15%NM 5.85%EV -0.574%E -0.035%K -0.038%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 14:00
ReBet1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -2.10%E -0.131%K -0.140%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 13:59
NetBet (FR)1.01I 99.01%NM 94.06%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.94%EV -2.10%E -0.131%K -0.140%G +0.000%5.3%2026-04-14 14:05
LowVig.ag1.02I 98.04%NM 93.83%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.17%EV -5.16%E -0.333%K -0.356%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-14 14:05
BetOnline.ag1.02I 98.04%NM 93.83%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%15.50I 6.45%NM 6.17%EV -5.16%E -0.333%K -0.356%G +0.000%4.5%2026-04-14 14:05
Coral1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-14 14:05
Ladbrokes (UK)1.03I 97.09%NM 93.57%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.43%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%3.8%2026-04-14 14:05
Unibet1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Unibet (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Unibet (NL)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:04
Winamax (FR)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
TABtouch1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
LeoVegas1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Grosvenor1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
LeoVegas (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Casumo1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
BetRivers1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Ladbrokes (AU)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Neds1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
ATG (SE)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Bally Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:04
betPARX1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Svenska Spel1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Hard Rock Bet1.01I 99.01%NM 93.69%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.31%EV -8.22%E -0.548%K -0.587%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Coolbet1.02I 98.04%NM 93.39%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%14.40I 6.94%NM 6.61%EV -11.89%E -0.826%K -0.888%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-14 14:05
Bet Right1.02I 98.04%NM 93.21%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.79%EV -14.34%E -1.02%K -1.10%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-14 14:05
Codere (IT)1.01I 99.01%NM 93.27%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.73%EV -14.34%E -1.02%K -1.10%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-14 14:01
PlayUp1.02I 98.04%NM 92.72%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.28%EV -20.46%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000%5.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Paddy Power1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -20.46%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Fanatics1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -20.46%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 14:05
SportsBet1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -20.46%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Caesars1.01I 99.01%NM 92.79%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.21%EV -20.46%E -1.57%K -1.70%G +0.000%6.7%2026-04-14 14:02
Betr (AU)1.02I 98.04%NM 92.46%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.54%EV -23.52%E -1.88%K -2.05%G +0.000%6.0%2026-04-14 14:05
NordicBet1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -23.52%E -1.88%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 14:04
Betsson1.01I 99.01%NM 92.52%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.48%EV -23.52%E -1.88%K -2.05%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-14 14:05
William Hill1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 14:05
888sport1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 13:59
Mr Green (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 13:59
888sport (SE)1.03I 97.09%NM 92.10%EV -3.30%E -3.21%K -110.07%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.90%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-14 13:59
BetMGM1.02I 98.04%NM 92.17%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.83%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-14 14:04
TAB1.01I 99.01%NM 92.24%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.76%EV -26.58%E -2.21%K -2.42%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-14 14:05
Everygame1.01I 99.01%NM 91.59%EV -5.18%E -5.13%K -517.97%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.41%EV -32.70%E -2.97%K -3.27%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-14 13:59
Bet Victor1.02I 98.04%NM 90.74%EV -4.24%E -4.16%K -212.05%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -38.81%E -3.88%K -4.31%G +0.000%8.0%2026-04-14 14:04
Margem = Margem · I = Probabilidade implícita · NM = Probabilidade sem margem · EV = Valor esperado · E = Vantagem · K = Critério de Kelly · G = Crescimento do capital de apostas

Atualização indica quando cada casa alterou a cotação pela última vez; uma hora mais antiga significa apenas que as odds não mudaram, não que estejam desatualizadas. As casas sem dados nos últimos ~15 minutos são normalmente excluídas; apenas quando a fonte de todo um mercado fica sem atualizações se mostram as últimas cotações registadas.

Bolsas de apostas (7)

Casa de apostasLocalVisitanteMargem ▲Atualização
Matchbook1.03I 97.09%NM 96.68%30.00I 3.33%NM 3.32%0.4%2026-04-14 14:05
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.45%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55%0.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.45%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55%0.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.03I 97.09%NM 96.45%28.00I 3.57%NM 3.55%0.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Smarkets1.02I 98.04%NM 96.36%27.03I 3.70%NM 3.64%1.7%2026-04-14 14:05
Novig1.02I 98.04%NM 96.27%26.32I 3.80%NM 3.73%1.8%2026-04-14 14:05
ProphetX1.02I 98.04%NM 96.23%26.00I 3.85%NM 3.77%1.9%2026-04-14 14:05