The School of Odds
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Toronto FC v Chicago Fire

2026-09-05 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

21 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Toronto FC (Local)

Prediction 31.70%3.15fair odd
EV -2.35%
Edge -0.765%
Kelly -1.13%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.08

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.81%31.73%31.70%32.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.912.903.0837.04%34.41%34.48%32.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Fire (Visit)

Prediction 44.06%2.27fair odd
EV +0.900%
Edge +0.393%
Kelly +0.698%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 2.29

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.08%43.78%43.99%44.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.942.102.102.2951.55%47.63%47.62%43.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.24%4.13fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -0.764%
Kelly -1.02%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.76%24.50%24.31%27.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.713.754.0032.26%26.99%26.67%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Toronto FC (Local): 31.70%; Chicago Fire (Visit): 44.06%; Draw: 24.24%. For Chicago Fire (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.29, producing a positive expected value of +0.900%.

Sportsbook Odds (21 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.08I 32.47%NM 31.52%EV -2.35%E -0.765%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.39%EV +0.900%E +0.393%K +0.698%G +0.006%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.09%EV -9.84%E -2.65%K -3.62%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-23 13:05
Coolbet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 32.29%EV -6.48%E -2.20%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.90%EV -4.39%E -2.02%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV -3.06%E -0.764%K -1.02%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-23 13:25
SportsBet🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 31.79%EV -4.89%E -1.63%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 44.36%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.06%E -0.764%K -1.02%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-23 12:10
Betr (AU)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.96%EV -6.48%E -2.20%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.18%EV -5.48%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-23 12:10
NordicBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -6.48%E -2.20%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -6.69%E -1.74%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 12:20
Betsson🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -6.48%E -2.20%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.42%EV -6.69%E -1.74%K -2.35%G +0.000%6.4%2026-08-23 12:20
888sport🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -15.17%E -4.34%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 12:55
William Hill🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -15.17%E -4.34%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 13:05
888sport (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -15.17%E -4.34%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 13:09
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.47%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.45%EV -5.27%E -2.45%K -4.58%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.08%EV -15.17%E -4.34%K -6.07%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-23 13:10
FanDuel🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.63%EV -6.48%E -2.20%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.44%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.93%EV -5.48%E -1.41%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-23 12:10
Paddy Power🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.81%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.92%EV -7.47%E -3.56%K -6.79%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.27%EV -7.90%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.4%2026-08-23 12:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 31.49%EV -14.40%E -5.33%K -8.47%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 41.08%EV -8.79%E -4.25%K -8.22%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 27.43%EV -24.87%E -8.02%K -11.84%G +0.000%17.6%2026-08-23 13:05
MyBookie.ag🎯3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -4.89%E -1.63%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.87%EV -9.23%E -4.48%K -8.71%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.32%EV -7.90%E -2.08%K -2.82%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-23 12:10
betano_uk🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.37%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -9.67%E -4.72%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 12:45
Bet Victor🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.37%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.37%EV -9.67%E -4.72%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.26%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-23 12:41
Sky Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.81%EV -11.23%E -4.01%K -6.24%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 43.45%EV -9.67%E -4.72%K -9.21%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.74%EV -12.75%E -3.54%K -4.90%G +0.000%12.3%2026-08-23 12:09
ReBet🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 30.87%EV -6.48%E -2.20%K -3.32%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 44.85%EV -10.56%E -5.20%K -10.25%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.28%EV -9.12%E -2.43%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-23 12:10
LeoVegas🎯2.90I 34.48%NM 31.06%EV -8.06%E -2.78%K -4.24%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 44.59%EV -11.00%E -5.44%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.35%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-23 12:10
Winamax (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.39%EV -11.23%E -4.01%K -6.24%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 44.85%EV -13.64%E -6.96%K -14.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.76%EV -10.33%E -2.79%K -3.83%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-23 12:09
Winamax (FR)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 31.54%EV -12.82%E -4.66%K -7.32%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 44.70%EV -14.52%E -7.49%K -15.45%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.76%EV -11.54%E -3.16%K -4.35%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-23 12:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎2.94I 34.01%NM 31.50%2.13I 46.95%NM 43.48%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.03%8.0%2026-08-23 13:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-23 12:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.33%188.5%2026-08-23 12:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-23 12:25