Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Jose Earthquakes v Sporting Kansas City

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 03:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (14 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Jose Earthquakes (Local)

Prediction 54.24%1.84fair odd
EV -3.99%
Edge -2.25%
Kelly -5.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.77

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.40%54.28%54.18%55.60%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.541.711.711.7764.94%58.56%58.48%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sporting Kansas City (Visit)

Prediction 23.18%4.31fair odd
EV +0.852%
Edge +0.196%
Kelly +0.254%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 4.35

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.91%23.23%23.23%24.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.504.034.034.3528.57%24.82%24.84%22.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.57%4.43fair odd
EV +1.57%
Edge +0.349%
Kelly +0.448%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.70%22.49%22.59%24.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.404.114.104.5029.41%24.35%24.39%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: San Jose Earthquakes (Local): 54.24%; Sporting Kansas City (Visit): 23.18%; Draw: 22.57%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.43. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.57%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Sky Bet🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.51%EV -11.90%E -3.13%K -4.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV +1.57%E +0.349%K +0.448%G +0.007%7.4%2026-02-21 18:30
BetOnline.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.60%EV -5.61%E -3.23%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.66%EV -1.00%E -0.235%K -0.307%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.74%EV +0.440%E +0.099%K +0.128%G +0.001%3.4%2026-02-22 02:25
LowVig.ag🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 55.60%EV -5.61%E -3.23%K -7.59%G +0.000%4.27I 23.42%NM 22.66%EV -1.00%E -0.235%K -0.307%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.74%EV +0.440%E +0.099%K +0.128%G +0.001%3.4%2026-02-22 02:25
1xBet🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 55.03%EV -4.53%E -2.57%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.19I 23.87%NM 23.11%EV -2.86%E -0.682%K -0.896%G +0.000%4.43I 22.57%NM 21.86%EV -0.011%E -0.003%K -0.003%G +0.000%3.3%2026-02-22 03:20
FanDuel🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 55.35%EV -8.33%E -4.93%K -12.07%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.39%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.26%EV -0.688%E -0.156%K -0.202%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 18:30
Pinnacle🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.94%EV -5.07%E -2.90%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.06%EV -3.32%E -0.797%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.37I 22.88%NM 22.00%EV -1.37%E -0.312%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.0%2026-02-22 03:20
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.73%EV -6.70%E -3.89%K -9.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.53%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.74%EV -2.27%E -0.524%K -0.681%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-21 20:45
Paddy Power🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.02%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.38%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.60%EV -2.27%E -0.524%K -0.681%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 18:30
GTbets🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 54.21%EV -4.53%E -2.57%K -5.96%G +0.000%4.08I 24.51%NM 23.39%EV -5.41%E -1.33%K -1.76%G +0.000%4.26I 23.47%NM 22.40%EV -3.85%E -0.903%K -1.18%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-22 03:05
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.54%EV -5.07%E -2.90%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.00%EV -3.79%E -0.912%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.46%EV -4.07%E -0.959%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-21 18:05
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.54%EV -5.07%E -2.90%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 23.00%EV -3.79%E -0.912%K -1.20%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.46%EV -4.07%E -0.959%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-21 18:05
Bovada🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.66%EV -6.70%E -3.89%K -9.30%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.21%EV -6.10%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV -4.07%E -0.959%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-22 03:24
BetUS🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.66%EV -6.70%E -3.89%K -9.30%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.21%EV -6.10%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV -4.07%E -0.959%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-22 03:14
BetAnything🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.66%EV -6.70%E -3.89%K -9.30%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 23.21%EV -6.10%E -1.51%K -2.00%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.12%EV -4.07%E -0.959%K -1.25%G +0.000%6.4%2026-02-22 03:20
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.79%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.29%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.92%EV -4.07%E -0.959%K -1.25%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-21 16:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.98%EV -5.07%E -2.90%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV +0.852%E +0.196%K +0.254%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%EV -5.20%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-22 03:20
LeoVegas🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.98%EV -5.07%E -2.90%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV +0.852%E +0.196%K +0.254%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%EV -5.20%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-22 03:19
Svenska Spel🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.98%EV -5.07%E -2.90%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV +0.852%E +0.196%K +0.254%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%EV -5.20%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-22 03:20
ATG (SE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.98%EV -5.07%E -2.90%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.12%EV +0.852%E +0.196%K +0.254%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.91%EV -5.20%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-22 03:20
Coolbet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.07%E -2.90%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -2.63%E -0.625%K -0.821%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.73%EV -5.20%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-21 17:25
MyBookie.ag🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.93%EV -5.07%E -2.90%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.60%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.47%EV -5.20%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.0%2026-02-21 16:59
Everygame🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.22%EV -6.16%E -3.56%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.45%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.33%EV -5.20%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-21 18:09
theScore Bet🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 53.75%EV -5.61%E -3.23%K -7.59%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -5.20%E -1.24%K -1.63%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 17:00
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.99%E -2.25%K -5.18%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -4.94%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.17%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%5.3%2026-02-21 16:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.24%E -4.23%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -0.308%E -0.072%K -0.093%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 03:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.24%E -4.23%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -0.308%E -0.072%K -0.093%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 03:20
Unibet (NL)🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.24%E -4.23%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -0.308%E -0.072%K -0.093%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 03:19
Casumo🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.24%E -4.23%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -0.308%E -0.072%K -0.093%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 03:20
Grosvenor🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.24%E -4.23%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -0.308%E -0.072%K -0.093%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 03:20
Unibet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.24%E -4.23%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -0.308%E -0.072%K -0.093%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 03:20
Bally Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.24%E -4.23%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -0.308%E -0.072%K -0.093%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 03:19
betPARX🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 55.10%EV -7.24%E -4.23%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91%EV -0.308%E -0.072%K -0.093%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.1%2026-02-22 03:20
BetRivers🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.11%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.04%EV -1.47%E -0.345%K -0.451%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.85%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.7%2026-02-22 03:20
Betr (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -6.70%E -3.89%K -9.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -4.94%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.81%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%6.9%2026-02-21 17:25
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 53.92%EV -6.16%E -3.56%K -8.43%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.32%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.75%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-21 18:10
Marathon Bet🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 54.52%EV -7.24%E -4.23%K -10.20%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -4.94%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.74%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-02-21 18:05
PlayUp🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.36%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.10%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.54%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-21 18:05
DraftKings🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.89%EV -7.24%E -4.23%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.63%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%8.5%2026-02-21 16:55
Winamax (DE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.53%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.27%EV -13.06%E -3.48%K -4.75%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.20%EV -7.46%E -1.82%K -2.41%G +0.000%9.9%2026-02-21 17:00
Fliff🎯1.69I 59.17%NM 54.04%EV -8.33%E -4.93%K -12.07%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.55%EV -8.59%E -2.12%K -2.82%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-22 03:25
Betway🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.33%EV -5.07%E -2.90%K -6.76%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -7.26%E -1.82%K -2.42%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.33%EV -9.72%E -2.43%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.1%2026-02-21 16:50
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 55.09%EV -9.41%E -5.64%K -14.05%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -2.63%E -0.625%K -0.821%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.00%EV -9.72%E -2.43%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.7%2026-02-22 03:20
William Hill🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.72%E -2.43%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 16:55
888sport🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.72%E -2.43%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 16:55
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.72%E -2.43%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 16:55
888sport (SE)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -9.58%E -2.46%K -3.30%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -9.72%E -2.43%K -3.24%G +0.000%9.5%2026-02-21 16:55
Bet Right🎯1.71I 58.48%NM 53.60%EV -7.24%E -4.23%K -10.20%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -8.42%E -2.13%K -2.85%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.20%EV -10.85%E -2.75%K -3.68%G +0.000%9.1%2026-02-21 17:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 54.94%EV -10.50%E -6.36%K -16.15%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.11%EV -4.94%E -1.21%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.95%EV -10.85%E -2.75%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.3%2026-02-22 03:20
Winamax (FR)🎯1.66I 60.24%NM 52.97%EV -9.95%E -6.00%K -15.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.77%EV -17.70%E -4.98%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 22.26%EV -10.85%E -2.75%K -3.68%G +0.000%13.7%2026-02-21 17:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.93%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV -13.06%E -3.48%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -11.97%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-21 16:54
Neds🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.93%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV -13.06%E -3.48%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -11.97%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-21 16:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.93%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV -13.06%E -3.48%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -11.97%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-21 16:55
Coral🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 52.93%EV -7.78%E -4.58%K -11.12%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.00%EV -13.06%E -3.48%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.07%EV -11.97%E -3.07%K -4.13%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-21 16:54
Unibet (FR)🎯1.63I 61.35%NM 53.32%EV -11.58%E -7.10%K -18.38%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 23.81%EV -15.38%E -4.21%K -5.80%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.87%EV -14.23%E -3.74%K -5.08%G +0.000%15.1%2026-02-22 03:20
PMU (FR)🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 54.19%EV -16.46%E -10.69%K -30.49%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 23.84%EV -18.86%E -5.39%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 21.96%EV -14.23%E -3.74%K -5.08%G +0.000%19.8%2026-02-22 02:35
Betclic (FR)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 53.23%EV -12.12%E -7.48%K -19.55%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.95%EV -16.54%E -4.59%K -6.36%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 22.81%EV -14.68%E -3.88%K -5.28%G +0.000%16.0%2026-02-22 03:04
Parions Sport (FR)🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 53.26%EV -13.75%E -8.65%K -23.31%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 23.85%EV -17.70%E -4.98%K -6.94%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.89%EV -16.49%E -4.46%K -6.11%G +0.000%18.1%2026-02-22 03:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 52.40%EV -12.12%E -7.48%K -19.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.64%EV -13.06%E -3.48%K -4.75%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 24.97%EV -23.26%E -6.84%K -9.69%G +0.000%17.8%2026-02-22 00:36
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42%1.5%2026-02-22 03:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42%1.5%2026-02-22 03:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42%1.5%2026-02-22 03:20
Matchbook1.77I 56.50%NM 55.67%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.91%4.60I 21.74%NM 21.42%1.5%2026-02-22 03:25
Kalshi1.75I 57.14%NM 55.42%4.17I 23.98%NM 23.26%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.32%3.1%2026-02-22 03:25
Smarkets1.75I 57.14%NM 55.11%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.96%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.92%3.7%2026-02-22 03:25