The School of Odds
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San Jose Earthquakes v Houston Dynamo

2026-09-13 02:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

San Jose Earthquakes (Local)

Prediction 37.56%2.66fair odd
EV -4.22%
Edge -1.65%
Kelly -2.72%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.50%37.56%37.56%37.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.462.482.5542.55%40.59%40.32%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Houston Dynamo (Visit)

Prediction 37.26%2.68fair odd
EV -3.12%
Edge -1.20%
Kelly -1.95%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.78%37.26%37.26%37.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.502.502.6041.67%40.04%40.00%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.18%3.97fair odd
EV -4.33%
Edge -1.14%
Kelly -1.55%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.00%25.18%25.18%25.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.453.663.703.8028.99%27.33%27.03%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: San Jose Earthquakes (Local): 37.56%; Houston Dynamo (Visit): 37.26%; Draw: 25.18%. For Houston Dynamo (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.60, with an expected value of -3.12%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.71%EV -4.22%E -1.65%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.98%EV -3.12%E -1.20%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.31%EV -4.33%E -1.14%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 03:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.71%EV -4.22%E -1.65%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.98%EV -3.12%E -1.20%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.31%EV -4.33%E -1.14%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 03:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.71%EV -4.22%E -1.65%K -2.72%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.98%EV -3.12%E -1.20%K -1.95%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.31%EV -4.33%E -1.14%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.0%2026-09-03 03:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.10%E -2.44%K -4.06%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -6.85%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.59%E -1.49%K -2.03%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-03 03:45
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -6.85%E -2.76%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.85%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.85%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 03:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -6.85%E -2.76%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.85%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.85%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 03:35
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -6.85%E -2.76%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.85%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.85%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 03:35
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -6.85%E -2.76%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.85%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.85%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 03:35
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -6.85%E -2.76%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.85%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.85%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 03:35
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -6.85%E -2.76%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.85%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.85%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 03:35
Bally Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.56%EV -6.85%E -2.76%K -4.63%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -6.85%E -2.74%K -4.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.18%EV -6.85%E -1.85%K -2.54%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-03 03:35
Grosvenor🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.53%EV -8.72%E -3.59%K -6.10%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 36.78%EV -7.59%E -3.06%K -5.13%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.69%EV -10.62%E -2.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-03 03:35
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -9.85%E -4.10%K -7.04%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 36.89%EV -8.71%E -3.55%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -10.62%E -2.99%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-03 03:35
TABtouch🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.60%EV -10.60%E -4.45%K -7.68%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.83%EV -9.45%E -3.89%K -6.61%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.57%EV -11.88%E -3.39%K -4.75%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-03 03:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.59%EV -11.73%E -4.99%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.81%EV -10.57%E -4.41%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -13.14%E -3.81%K -5.36%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-03 03:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 37.59%EV -11.73%E -4.99%K -8.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 36.81%EV -10.57%E -4.41%K -7.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.60%EV -13.14%E -3.81%K -5.36%G +0.000%13.2%2026-09-03 03:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.96I 51.02%NM 36.93%2.08I 48.08%NM 34.80%2.56I 39.06%NM 28.27%38.2%2026-09-03 07:15