The School of Odds
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Philadelphia Union v Toronto FC

2026-11-07 21:00 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Union (Local)

Prediction 72.12%1.39fair odd
EV -4.08%
Edge -3.07%
Kelly -12.38%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.33

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.87%72.12%72.12%73.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.301.301.3380.65%77.11%76.92%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Toronto FC (Visit)

Prediction 11.72%8.53fair odd
EV -0.389%
Edge -0.046%
Kelly -0.052%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 8.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.43%11.72%11.72%12.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.918.008.5014.29%12.65%12.50%11.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 16.16%6.19fair odd
EV +1.03%
Edge +0.164%
Kelly +0.195%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 6.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.54%16.16%16.16%16.58%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
5.305.785.806.2518.87%17.30%17.24%16.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Philadelphia Union (Local): 72.12%; Toronto FC (Visit): 11.72%; Draw: 16.16%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 6.19. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 6.25, producing a positive expected value of +1.03%.

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.03%EV -4.08%E -3.07%K -12.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.43%EV -0.389%E -0.046%K -0.052%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%EV +1.03%E +0.164%K +0.195%G +0.002%3.0%2026-10-31 21:40
ATG (SE)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.03%EV -4.08%E -3.07%K -12.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.43%EV -0.389%E -0.046%K -0.052%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%EV +1.03%E +0.164%K +0.195%G +0.002%3.0%2026-10-31 21:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 73.03%EV -4.08%E -3.07%K -12.38%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.43%EV -0.389%E -0.046%K -0.052%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 15.54%EV +1.03%E +0.164%K +0.195%G +0.002%3.0%2026-10-31 21:40
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.12%EV -6.25%E -4.81%K -20.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -6.25%E -0.781%K -0.893%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -6.25%E -1.08%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 21:45
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.12%EV -6.25%E -4.81%K -20.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -6.25%E -0.781%K -0.893%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -6.25%E -1.08%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 21:40
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.12%EV -6.25%E -4.81%K -20.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -6.25%E -0.781%K -0.893%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -6.25%E -1.08%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 21:40
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.12%EV -6.25%E -4.81%K -20.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -6.25%E -0.781%K -0.893%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -6.25%E -1.08%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 21:40
Unibet (NL)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.12%EV -6.25%E -4.81%K -20.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -6.25%E -0.781%K -0.893%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -6.25%E -1.08%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 21:40
betPARX🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.12%EV -6.25%E -4.81%K -20.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -6.25%E -0.781%K -0.893%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -6.25%E -1.08%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 21:40
Bally Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.12%EV -6.25%E -4.81%K -20.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.72%EV -6.25%E -0.781%K -0.893%G +0.000%5.80I 17.24%NM 16.16%EV -6.25%E -1.08%K -1.30%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-31 21:45
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.86%EV -5.53%E -4.22%K -17.83%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.77%EV -6.25%E -0.781%K -0.893%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.37%EV -7.06%E -1.23%K -1.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-10-31 21:20
LiveScore Bet🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.31%EV -6.97%E -5.40%K -24.03%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.27%EV -12.11%E -1.61%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.43%EV -9.48%E -1.69%K -2.06%G +0.000%8.7%2026-10-31 21:10
Grosvenor🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.26%EV -7.69%E -6.01%K -27.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -12.11%E -1.61%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -11.10%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 21:45
Virgin Bet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 71.26%EV -7.69%E -6.01%K -27.47%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.16%EV -12.11%E -1.61%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.58%EV -11.10%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-31 21:40
TABtouch🎯1.26I 79.37%NM 71.58%EV -9.13%E -7.25%K -35.13%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -12.11%E -1.61%K -1.86%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.40%EV -11.10%E -2.02%K -2.47%G +0.000%10.9%2026-10-31 21:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 70.87%EV -10.58%E -8.53%K -44.06%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.55%EV -17.97%E -2.57%K -2.99%G +0.000%5.30I 18.87%NM 16.58%EV -14.33%E -2.70%K -3.33%G +0.000%13.8%2026-10-31 21:40
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi◎1.43I 69.93%NM 63.63%5.56I 17.99%NM 16.37%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.00%9.9%2026-11-01 00:00