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Philadelphia Union v Inter Miami CF

2026-08-19 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Philadelphia Union (Local)

Prediction 37.45%2.67fair odd
EV -2.63%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.26%37.20%37.45%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.452.6043.48%40.61%40.82%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Inter Miami CF (Visit)

Prediction 39.58%2.53fair odd
EV -5.00%
Edge -2.08%
Kelly -3.57%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.76%39.47%39.58%40.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.172.322.302.4046.08%43.09%43.48%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.97%4.35fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.341%
Kelly +0.440%
Growth +0.007%

assuming max odds 4.42

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.94%23.32%22.97%24.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.603.944.004.4227.78%25.39%25.00%22.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Philadelphia Union (Local): 37.45%; Inter Miami CF (Visit): 39.58%; Draw: 22.97%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.35. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.42, producing a positive expected value of +1.51%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet2.60I 38.46%NM 37.30%EV -2.63%E -1.01%K -1.64%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.75%EV -5.79%E -2.43%K -4.19%G +0.000%4.42I 22.62%NM 21.94%EV +1.51%E +0.341%K +0.440%G +0.007%3.1%2026-08-02 12:04
Coolbet2.55I 39.22%NM 37.46%EV -4.50%E -1.77%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.80%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74%EV -3.55%E -0.844%K -1.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-02 11:25
SportsBet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.72%EV -6.38%E -2.55%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -5.84%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 11:25
FanDuel2.50I 40.00%NM 37.72%EV -6.38%E -2.55%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.29%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -5.84%E -1.43%K -1.88%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 12:25
Betr (AU)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.04%EV -4.50%E -1.77%K -2.90%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.35%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.61%EV -8.14%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-02 11:24
Paddy Power2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.77%EV -5.00%E -2.08%K -3.57%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.26%EV -8.14%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-02 11:23
888sport2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -8.14%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 12:54
William Hill2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -8.14%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 12:55
888sport (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -8.14%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 12:55
Mr Green (SE)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.35%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.78%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.87%EV -8.14%E -2.03%K -2.71%G +0.000%9.3%2026-08-02 12:55
ReBet2.48I 40.32%NM 36.68%EV -7.12%E -2.87%K -4.81%G +0.000%2.31I 43.29%NM 39.38%EV -8.56%E -3.71%K -6.53%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.94%EV -12.73%E -3.35%K -4.55%G +0.000%9.9%2026-08-02 13:04
Marathon Bet2.57I 38.91%NM 36.29%EV -3.75%E -1.46%K -2.39%G +0.000%2.39I 41.84%NM 39.03%EV -5.39%E -2.26%K -3.88%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 24.68%EV -13.19%E -3.49%K -4.75%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 11:40
LeoVegas2.45I 40.82%NM 36.78%EV -8.25%E -3.37%K -5.69%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.18%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.03%EV -13.88%E -3.70%K -5.05%G +0.000%11.0%2026-08-02 13:05
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.46%EV -10.87%E -4.57%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.76%EV -8.95%E -3.89%K -6.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.78%EV -13.88%E -3.70%K -5.05%G +0.000%12.2%2026-08-02 11:25
Winamax (DE)2.35I 42.55%NM 37.11%EV -11.99%E -5.10%K -8.88%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.64%EV -12.91%E -5.87%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.25%EV -13.88%E -3.70%K -5.05%G +0.000%14.7%2026-08-02 13:04
Winamax (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 37.49%EV -13.87%E -6.03%K -10.67%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.20%EV -12.91%E -5.87%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.31%EV -15.03%E -4.06%K -5.57%G +0.000%16.0%2026-08-02 13:04
Betclic (FR)2.38I 42.02%NM 36.26%EV -10.87%E -4.57%K -7.88%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 39.77%EV -14.10%E -6.50%K -12.05%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.97%EV -17.33%E -4.81%K -6.66%G +0.000%15.9%2026-08-02 13:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.34I 42.74%NM 36.73%2.20I 45.45%NM 39.06%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.21%16.4%2026-08-02 13:05
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:29