The School of Odds

Philadelphia Union v Atlanta United FC

2026-08-01 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Philadelphia Union (Local)

Prediction 54.43%1.84fair odd
EV -2.58%
Edge -1.44%
Kelly -3.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%54.40%54.37%57.13%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.611.711.701.7962.11%58.61%58.82%55.87%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Atlanta United FC (Visit)

Prediction 21.56%4.64fair odd
EV -0.844%
Edge -0.184%
Kelly -0.235%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.44%21.63%21.65%22.76%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
4.004.264.254.6025.00%23.50%23.53%21.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 24.02%4.16fair odd
EV -1.53%
Edge -0.372%
Kelly -0.492%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.43%23.97%23.98%24.68%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.583.843.804.1027.93%26.04%26.32%24.39%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.79I 55.87%NM 54.21%EV -2.58%E -1.44%K -3.26%G +0.000%4.47I 22.37%NM 21.71%EV -3.65%E -0.816%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 24.08%EV -3.21%E -0.796%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.1%2026-07-26 00:14
GTbets1.76I 56.82%NM 54.11%EV -4.21%E -2.39%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.36I 22.94%NM 21.84%EV -6.02%E -1.38%K -1.79%G +0.000%3.96I 25.25%NM 24.05%EV -4.89%E -1.23%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-26 00:05
Pinnacle1.75I 57.14%NM 54.32%EV -4.75%E -2.72%K -6.34%G +0.000%4.41I 22.68%NM 21.56%EV -4.94%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000%3.94I 25.38%NM 24.13%EV -5.37%E -1.36%K -1.83%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 00:50
Fanatics1.74I 57.47%NM 54.89%EV -5.30%E -3.04%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%EV -3.00%E -0.667%K -0.857%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.88%EV -3.93%E -0.982%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-26 00:45
PointsBet (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 54.89%EV -5.30%E -3.04%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.23%EV -3.00%E -0.667%K -0.857%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.88%EV -3.93%E -0.982%K -1.31%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-26 00:50
BetMGM1.74I 57.47%NM 53.75%EV -5.30%E -3.04%K -7.16%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.27%EV -9.47%E -2.25%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.98%EV -6.33%E -1.62%K -2.18%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-25 23:53
888sport1.73I 57.80%NM 52.63%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.78%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -11.13%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 01:00
William Hill1.73I 57.80%NM 52.63%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.78%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -11.13%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 01:00
Mr Green (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 52.63%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.78%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -11.13%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 01:00
888sport (SE)1.73I 57.80%NM 52.63%EV -5.84%E -3.38%K -8.00%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.76%EV -13.78%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.61%EV -11.13%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.8%2026-07-26 01:00
Coolbet1.72I 58.14%NM 55.18%EV -6.39%E -3.71%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV -3.00%E -0.667%K -0.857%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.73%EV -3.93%E -0.982%K -1.31%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-25 23:59
NordicBet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.89%EV -6.39%E -3.71%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.21%EV -4.08%E -0.916%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -5.13%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 00:40
Betsson1.72I 58.14%NM 54.89%EV -6.39%E -3.71%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.45I 22.47%NM 21.21%EV -4.08%E -0.916%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.90%EV -5.13%E -1.30%K -1.74%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-26 00:40
Marathon Bet1.72I 58.14%NM 54.25%EV -6.39%E -3.71%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.70%EV -7.31%E -1.70%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.05%EV -6.81%E -1.76%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 00:05
MyBookie.ag1.72I 58.14%NM 53.80%EV -6.39%E -3.71%K -8.87%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.52%EV -7.31%E -1.70%K -2.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.68%EV -9.93%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-25 23:58
Betr (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 55.47%EV -7.47%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.96%EV -3.00%E -0.667%K -0.857%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.57%EV -3.93%E -0.982%K -1.31%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-25 23:59
LeoVegas1.70I 58.82%NM 53.68%EV -7.47%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.99%EV -10.54%E -2.54%K -3.35%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.33%EV -9.93%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 23:54
betano_uk1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%EV -7.47%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.47%E -2.25%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -11.13%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 00:04
Bet Victor1.70I 58.82%NM 53.64%EV -7.47%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.71%EV -9.47%E -2.25%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.65%EV -11.13%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-07-26 00:04
Betway1.70I 58.82%NM 53.41%EV -7.47%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.70%EV -13.78%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.89%EV -8.73%E -2.30%K -3.12%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 00:00
Ladbrokes (AU)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.07%EV -7.47%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -13.78%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -11.13%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-25 23:54
Ladbrokes (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 53.07%EV -7.47%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -13.78%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -11.13%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-25 23:54
Neds1.70I 58.82%NM 53.07%EV -7.47%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -13.78%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -11.13%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-25 23:55
Coral1.70I 58.82%NM 53.07%EV -7.47%E -4.40%K -10.68%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.55%EV -13.78%E -3.44%K -4.59%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.38%EV -11.13%E -3.01%K -4.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-25 23:55
SportsBet1.68I 59.52%NM 56.34%EV -8.56%E -5.10%K -12.59%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -0.844%E -0.184%K -0.235%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -1.53%E -0.372%K -0.492%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 23:59
Paddy Power1.67I 59.88%NM 55.91%EV -9.11%E -5.45%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.75%EV -3.00%E -0.667%K -0.857%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.34%EV -3.93%E -0.982%K -1.31%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-26 00:00
Bet Right1.67I 59.88%NM 54.74%EV -9.11%E -5.45%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.51%EV -8.39%E -1.97%K -2.58%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.75%EV -7.53%E -1.96%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.4%2026-07-25 23:59
betfred_uk1.67I 59.88%NM 54.61%EV -9.11%E -5.45%K -13.59%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.06%EV -6.66%E -1.54%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.32%EV -9.93%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-25 23:59
Betclic (FR)1.63I 61.35%NM 53.83%EV -11.28%E -6.92%K -17.91%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 21.66%EV -12.70%E -3.14%K -4.16%G +0.000%3.58I 27.93%NM 24.51%EV -14.02%E -3.92%K -5.43%G +0.000%14.0%2026-07-25 23:55
Sky Bet1.62I 61.73%NM 55.01%EV -11.83%E -7.30%K -19.08%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -9.47%E -2.25%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.77%EV -9.93%E -2.65%K -3.61%G +0.000%12.2%2026-07-26 00:05
FanDuel1.61I 62.11%NM 57.13%EV -12.37%E -7.69%K -20.28%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.44%EV -3.00%E -0.667%K -0.857%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.43%EV -1.53%E -0.372%K -0.492%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 00:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.66I 60.24%NM 53.12%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.04%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.84%13.4%2026-07-26 00:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-07-26 00:10