The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Orlando City SC v Nashville SC

Kickoff: 2026-07-26 00:46 UTC

Final: Orlando City SC 1–0 Nashville SC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Orlando City SC (Local)

Prediction 38.52%2.60fair odd
EV +5.92%
Edge +2.15%
Kelly +3.38%
Growth +0.200%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.91%38.23%38.60%39.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.202.512.502.7545.45%39.78%40.00%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Nashville SC (Visit)

Prediction 36.76%2.72fair odd
EV -0.736%
Edge -0.273%
Kelly -0.433%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.49%37.14%36.77%39.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.302.462.452.7043.48%40.68%40.82%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.72%4.05fair odd
EV -1.12%
Edge -0.281%
Kelly -0.375%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.44%24.64%24.63%25.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.503.723.734.0028.57%26.87%26.85%25.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Orlando City SC (Local): 38.52%; Nashville SC (Visit): 36.76%; Draw: 24.72%. For Orlando City SC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.60. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.75, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.92%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.02%EV +5.92%E +2.15%K +3.38%G +0.200%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.30%EV -9.93%E -4.05%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.68%EV -7.30%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-26 00:45
Svenska Spel🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.02%EV +5.92%E +2.15%K +3.38%G +0.200%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.30%EV -9.93%E -4.05%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.68%EV -7.30%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-26 00:45
ATG (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 35.02%EV +5.92%E +2.15%K +3.38%G +0.200%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.30%EV -9.93%E -4.05%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.68%EV -7.30%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.8%2026-07-26 00:45
Casumo🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV +3.99%E +1.48%K +2.35%G +0.094%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -11.77%E -4.90%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 00:45
Unibet (NL)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV +3.99%E +1.48%K +2.35%G +0.094%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -11.77%E -4.90%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 00:45
Unibet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV +3.99%E +1.48%K +2.35%G +0.094%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -11.77%E -4.90%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 00:45
Unibet (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV +3.99%E +1.48%K +2.35%G +0.094%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -11.77%E -4.90%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 00:45
Bally Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV +3.99%E +1.48%K +2.35%G +0.094%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -11.77%E -4.90%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 00:42
betPARX🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.91%EV +3.99%E +1.48%K +2.35%G +0.094%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.27%EV -11.77%E -4.90%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.82%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-26 00:45
Fanatics🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.69%EV +2.07%E +0.781%K +1.25%G +0.026%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.41%EV -11.77%E -4.90%K -8.40%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.89%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 23:54
Grosvenor🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.09%EV +2.07%E +0.781%K +1.25%G +0.026%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.07%EV -12.50%E -5.25%K -9.06%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.83%EV -11.01%E -3.06%K -4.24%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-26 00:45
TABtouch🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 34.97%EV +1.30%E +0.494%K +0.797%G +0.010%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.13%EV -13.60%E -5.79%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.90%EV -12.25%E -3.45%K -4.80%G +0.000%8.7%2026-07-26 00:45
Tipico (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.30%EV +0.143%E +0.055%K +0.090%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.90%EV -15.44%E -6.71%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.0%2026-07-25 22:48
PMU (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.11%EV +0.143%E +0.055%K +0.090%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 39.18%EV -14.34%E -6.15%K -10.78%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.71%EV -12.25%E -3.45%K -4.80%G +0.000%9.5%2026-07-26 00:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.25%EV -1.78%E -0.699%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -15.44%E -6.71%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-26 00:04
Virgin Bet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.25%EV -1.78%E -0.699%K -1.15%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.08%EV -15.44%E -6.71%K -11.88%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.68%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%11.3%2026-07-26 00:05
Caesars🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -3.71%E -1.48%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.09%E -3.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -7.30%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-26 00:32
betano_uk🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -3.71%E -1.48%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.09%E -3.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 23:24
Bet Victor🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -3.71%E -1.48%K -2.47%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -8.09%E -3.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.25%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 23:28
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.65%EV -5.63%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.42%EV -4.41%E -1.70%K -2.76%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.92%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-25 23:55
Bovada🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.63%EV -5.63%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.11%EV -6.25%E -2.45%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.26%EV -3.60%E -0.922%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-25 23:49
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -5.63%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -6.25%E -2.45%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.3%2026-07-25 23:54
Fliff🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.85%EV -5.63%E -2.30%K -3.89%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 38.42%EV -13.60%E -5.79%K -10.08%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.73%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.8%2026-07-26 00:45
theScore Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.93%EV -7.56%E -3.15%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.49%EV -0.736%E -0.273%K -0.433%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.57%EV -3.60%E -0.922%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-26 00:34
Sky Bet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.06%EV -7.56%E -3.15%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -8.09%E -3.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.44%EV -1.12%E -0.281%K -0.375%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-25 23:55
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.87%EV -7.56%E -3.15%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.58%EV -6.25%E -2.45%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.55%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%7.2%2026-07-26 00:24
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.56%E -3.15%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -8.09%E -3.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-25 23:53
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.59%EV -7.56%E -3.15%K -5.40%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.04%EV -8.09%E -3.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.37%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-25 23:55
Betway🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.45%EV -8.33%E -3.50%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.84%EV -3.68%E -1.40%K -2.27%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -6.07%E -1.60%K -2.17%G +0.000%6.5%2026-07-26 00:20
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.26%EV -8.33%E -3.50%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.08%EV -7.35%E -2.92%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -2.36%E -0.597%K -0.800%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 23:54
NordicBet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.26%EV -8.33%E -3.50%K -6.04%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.08%EV -7.35%E -2.92%K -4.84%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.66%EV -2.36%E -0.597%K -0.800%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-25 23:54
LeoVegas🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.24%EV -9.49%E -4.04%K -7.03%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.16%EV -6.25%E -2.45%K -4.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.59%EV -7.30%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%8.4%2026-07-26 00:35
MyBookie.ag🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.47%EV -11.41%E -4.96%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.32%EV -8.09%E -3.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.21%EV -7.30%E -1.95%K -2.66%G +0.000%10.1%2026-07-26 00:34
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.21%EV -11.41%E -4.96%K -8.78%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.08%EV -8.09%E -3.24%K -5.39%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.71%EV -9.78%E -2.68%K -3.69%G +0.000%10.9%2026-07-26 00:34
Betclic (FR)🎯2.22I 45.05%NM 39.78%EV -14.49%E -6.53%K -11.88%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.35%EV -10.66%E -4.39%K -7.46%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.87%EV -8.54%E -2.31%K -3.16%G +0.000%13.2%2026-07-26 00:33
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 39.58%EV -15.26%E -6.94%K -12.72%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 35.54%EV -9.93%E -4.05%K -6.85%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 24.88%EV -13.48%E -3.85%K -5.39%G +0.000%14.8%2026-07-26 00:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.64I 37.88%NM 37.71%2.62I 38.17%NM 38.00%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.28%0.4%2026-07-26 00:45
Kalshi◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.63%2.56I 39.06%NM 38.63%4.35I 22.99%NM 22.74%1.1%2026-07-26 00:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.44%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.00%1.6%2026-07-26 00:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.56I 39.06%NM 38.44%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.56%4.10I 24.39%NM 24.00%1.6%2026-07-26 00:45
Matchbook◎2.60I 38.46%NM 37.61%2.62I 38.17%NM 37.32%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.07%2.3%2026-07-26 00:45