The School of Odds
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Orlando City SC v Chicago Fire

2026-08-19 23:30 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Orlando City SC (Local)

Prediction 29.74%3.36fair odd
EV -4.24%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -1.91%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.83%29.64%29.74%30.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.783.073.103.2235.97%32.53%32.26%31.06%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Chicago Fire (Visit)

Prediction 47.33%2.11fair odd
EV -4.40%
Edge -2.18%
Kelly -4.32%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.46%47.27%47.33%48.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.941.912.0254.35%51.62%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 22.93%4.36fair odd
EV +5.27%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.47%
Growth +0.077%

assuming max odds 4.59

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.14%23.09%22.93%25.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.283.954.004.5930.49%25.33%25.00%21.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Orlando City SC (Local): 29.74%; Chicago Fire (Visit): 47.33%; Draw: 22.93%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.36. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 4.59, producing a positive expected value of +5.27%.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet3.20I 31.25%NM 30.33%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 48.53%EV -5.35%E -2.67%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.59I 21.79%NM 21.14%EV +5.27%E +1.15%K +1.47%G +0.077%3.0%2026-08-02 12:10
Coolbet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.89%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.34%EV -4.40%E -2.18%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.77%EV -3.68%E -0.875%K -1.15%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-02 11:44
SportsBet3.20I 31.25%NM 29.72%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.08%EV -4.40%E -2.18%K -4.32%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.20%EV -5.97%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-02 11:44
FanDuel3.20I 31.25%NM 29.58%EV -4.83%E -1.51%K -2.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.33%EV -5.35%E -2.67%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.09%EV -5.97%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-02 12:25
Betr (AU)3.15I 31.75%NM 29.91%EV -6.32%E -2.01%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.11%EV -5.35%E -2.67%K -5.35%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.98%EV -5.97%E -1.46%K -1.93%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-02 11:44
Paddy Power3.10I 32.26%NM 29.72%EV -7.81%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.25%EV -7.72%E -3.96%K -8.12%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -8.26%E -2.07%K -2.75%G +0.000%8.5%2026-08-02 11:49
888sport3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -9.61%E -5.03%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -8.26%E -2.07%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-02 14:04
William Hill3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -9.61%E -5.03%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -8.26%E -2.07%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-02 14:04
Mr Green (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -9.61%E -5.03%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -8.26%E -2.07%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-02 14:04
888sport (SE)3.00I 33.33%NM 30.11%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.30%EV -9.61%E -5.03%K -10.56%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.59%EV -8.26%E -2.07%K -2.75%G +0.000%10.7%2026-08-02 14:04
Marathon Bet3.22I 31.06%NM 28.97%EV -4.24%E -1.32%K -1.91%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.11%EV -6.30%E -3.18%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.92%EV -10.56%E -2.71%K -3.64%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-02 12:04
LeoVegas3.10I 32.26%NM 29.10%EV -7.81%E -2.52%K -3.72%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 47.47%EV -10.08%E -5.31%K -11.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.43%EV -11.70%E -3.04%K -4.11%G +0.000%10.9%2026-08-02 12:04
ReBet3.16I 31.65%NM 28.83%EV -6.02%E -1.91%K -2.79%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.20%EV -8.66%E -4.49%K -9.31%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.97%EV -12.85%E -3.38%K -4.59%G +0.000%9.8%2026-08-02 11:50
Sky Bet3.00I 33.33%NM 29.67%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.60%EV -9.61%E -5.03%K -10.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%12.4%2026-08-02 11:49
Winamax (DE)3.00I 33.33%NM 29.30%EV -10.78%E -3.59%K -5.39%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 47.26%EV -11.97%E -6.44%K -13.92%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.44%EV -14.00%E -3.73%K -5.09%G +0.000%13.8%2026-08-02 11:49
Winamax (FR)2.95I 33.90%NM 29.41%EV -12.27%E -4.16%K -6.29%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 47.15%EV -12.92%E -7.02%K -15.38%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.45%EV -15.14%E -4.09%K -5.61%G +0.000%15.3%2026-08-02 11:50
Betclic (FR)2.78I 35.97%NM 30.06%EV -17.32%E -6.23%K -9.73%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 44.46%EV -11.03%E -5.87%K -12.53%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 25.48%EV -24.78%E -7.55%K -10.87%G +0.000%19.7%2026-08-02 12:09
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets2.98I 33.56%NM 28.91%1.84I 54.35%NM 46.82%3.55I 28.17%NM 24.27%16.1%2026-08-02 11:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:30
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.04I 96.15%NM 33.01%1.01I 99.01%NM 33.99%191.3%2026-08-02 12:29