Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Red Bulls v FC Cincinnati

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

New York Red Bulls (Local)

Prediction 48.48%2.06fair odd
EV -3.04%
Edge -1.52%
Kelly -3.04%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.84%48.54%48.38%49.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.811.921.932.0055.25%52.04%51.81%50.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

FC Cincinnati (Visit)

Prediction 27.36%3.65fair odd
EV +1.79%
Edge +0.481%
Kelly +0.658%
Growth +0.012%

assuming max odds 3.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.95%27.32%27.45%28.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.413.403.7232.26%29.36%29.41%26.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 24.16%4.14fair odd
EV -2.64%
Edge -0.654%
Kelly -0.870%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.03

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.24%24.14%24.18%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.823.854.0330.77%26.20%25.97%24.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Red Bulls (Local): 48.48%; FC Cincinnati (Visit): 27.36%; Draw: 24.16%. For FC Cincinnati (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.72, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.79%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
BetOnline.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.95%EV +1.79%E +0.481%K +0.658%G +0.012%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.56%EV -5.05%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 22:50
LowVig.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.95%EV +1.79%E +0.481%K +0.658%G +0.012%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.56%EV -5.05%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 22:50
BetAnything🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 49.50%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 25.95%EV +1.79%E +0.481%K +0.658%G +0.012%3.93I 25.45%NM 24.56%EV -5.05%E -1.29%K -1.72%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 22:49
1xBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.69%EV -3.53%E -1.77%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.68I 27.17%NM 26.33%EV +0.695%E +0.189%K +0.259%G +0.002%3.88I 25.77%NM 24.97%EV -6.26%E -1.61%K -2.17%G +0.000%3.2%2026-04-04 23:24
Pinnacle🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 48.56%EV -3.53%E -1.77%K -3.57%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 27.46%EV -3.68%E -1.05%K -1.46%G +0.000%4.03I 24.81%NM 23.98%EV -2.64%E -0.654%K -0.870%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-04 23:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.98%EV -3.04%E -1.52%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.42%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.60%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 23:00
LeoVegas🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.98%EV -3.04%E -1.52%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.42%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.60%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 23:00
Svenska Spel🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.98%EV -3.04%E -1.52%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.42%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.60%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 23:00
ATG (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.98%EV -3.04%E -1.52%K -3.04%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.42%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.60%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-04 23:00
theScore Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.91%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.25%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.84%EV -3.36%E -0.840%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 23:19
Coolbet🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.17%EV -6.44%E -3.34%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.11%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.72%EV -3.36%E -0.840%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.4%2026-04-04 22:54
BetUS🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.61%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.31%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 23:24
SportsBet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -8.19%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:14
FanDuel🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -8.19%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:14
Caesars🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.30%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.91%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.79%EV -8.19%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:08
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.66%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.55%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.78%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%7.6%2026-04-04 23:14
Tipico (DE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.62%EV -10.32%E -5.58%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.23%EV -4.23%E -1.21%K -1.69%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.16%EV -8.19%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 23:05
GTbets🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.82%EV -6.44%E -3.34%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.08%EV -4.78%E -1.37%K -1.93%G +0.000%3.91I 25.58%NM 24.10%EV -5.54%E -1.42%K -1.90%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 23:00
NordicBet🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.19%EV -4.01%E -2.03%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.66%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.57%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 23:14
Betsson🎯1.98I 50.51%NM 48.19%EV -4.01%E -2.03%K -4.10%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.66%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.16%EV -4.57%E -1.16%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 23:14
Casumo🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.27%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.99%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:00
Unibet (SE)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.27%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.99%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:00
Unibet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.27%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.99%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:01
Unibet (NL)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.27%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.99%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:00
betPARX🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.27%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.99%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:00
Bally Bet🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.27%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.28%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 24.45%EV -6.99%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:00
Marathon Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.82%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -5.60%E -1.62%K -2.29%G +0.000%3.86I 25.91%NM 24.16%EV -6.74%E -1.75%K -2.36%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 23:24
MyBookie.ag🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.31%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.42I 29.24%NM 27.54%EV -6.42%E -1.88%K -2.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.15%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:24
Betr (AU)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 48.23%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 24.11%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 23:23
Bet Victor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.48%EV -6.44%E -3.34%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.52%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.99%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.9%2026-04-04 23:24
Betway🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.92%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.49%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.59%EV -8.19%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 22:59
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.17%EV -7.89%E -4.15%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.48%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.36%EV -3.36%E -0.840%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.0%2026-04-04 22:54
Everygame🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.74%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.38%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.87%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 23:15
BetRivers🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.18%EV -6.44%E -3.34%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -8.19%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 23:00
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 48.18%EV -6.44%E -3.34%K -6.92%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.35%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.47%EV -8.19%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-04 23:00
TAB🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.61%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.30%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.09%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-04 23:14
Sky Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.44%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.21%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.35%EV -8.19%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-04 23:14
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 23:00
William Hill🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 23:00
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 23:01
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.12%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.03%EV -6.97%E -2.05%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.84%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 23:00
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.09%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.42%EV -8.34%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.49%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-04 23:01
Bet Right🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.79%EV -8.86%E -4.71%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.38%EV -8.34%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.83%EV -6.99%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-04 23:25
PMU (FR)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 48.33%EV -8.86%E -4.71%K -10.07%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.12%EV -8.34%E -2.49%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.55%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%10.1%2026-04-04 23:01
PlayUp🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 47.37%EV -5.47%E -2.80%K -5.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.99%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.63%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 23:24
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.20%EV -7.41%E -3.88%K -8.14%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.89%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.91%EV -6.99%E -1.81%K -2.45%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 23:14
LiveScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.10%EV -9.35%E -5.00%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -11.82%E -3.24%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 23:00
Virgin Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.10%EV -9.35%E -5.00%K -10.74%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.26%EV -9.70%E -2.94%K -4.22%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 24.64%EV -11.82%E -3.24%K -4.46%G +0.000%11.2%2026-04-04 23:00
Betclic (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.24%EV -10.32%E -5.58%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.23I 30.96%NM 27.63%EV -11.62%E -3.60%K -5.21%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.12%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 23:25
Winamax (DE)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.06%EV -7.89%E -4.15%K -8.77%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.53%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.41%EV -5.78%E -1.48%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.5%2026-04-04 23:20
Neds🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.32%E -5.58%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 23:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.32%E -5.58%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 23:25
Coral🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.32%E -5.58%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 23:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.28%EV -10.32%E -5.58%K -12.14%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.91%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.82%EV -9.40%E -2.51%K -3.42%G +0.000%12.0%2026-04-04 23:25
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 46.84%EV -11.29%E -6.17%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 26.79%EV -12.44%E -3.89%K -5.65%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.37%EV -21.48%E -6.61%K -9.55%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-04 23:19
Unibet (FR)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 48.14%EV -12.26%E -6.77%K -15.13%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 27.66%EV -13.81%E -4.38%K -6.42%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 24.20%EV -13.03%E -3.62%K -5.01%G +0.000%14.8%2026-04-04 23:20
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.26%EV -11.29%E -6.17%K -13.60%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.49%EV -15.18%E -4.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.24%EV -8.19%E -2.16%K -2.93%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-04 23:04
Winamax (FR)🎯1.84I 54.35%NM 47.83%EV -10.80%E -5.87%K -12.86%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.39%EV -15.18%E -4.90%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 23.78%EV -10.61%E -2.87%K -3.93%G +0.000%13.6%2026-04-04 23:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86%0.6%2026-04-04 23:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.06I 48.54%NM 48.27%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.87%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.86%0.6%2026-04-04 23:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.04I 49.02%NM 48.51%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-04-04 23:25
Matchbook2.04I 49.02%NM 48.51%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.75%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.74%1.0%2026-04-04 23:24
Smarkets2.02I 49.50%NM 48.43%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.80%3.95I 25.32%NM 24.77%2.2%2026-04-04 23:24