Language:English
FC Cincinnati v D.C. United
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
FC Cincinnati (Local)
Prediction 55.26%1.81fair odd
EV -3.30%
Edge -1.89%
Kelly -4.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.02%55.35%55.33%58.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.581.681.671.7563.29%59.65%59.88%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
D.C. United (Visit)
Prediction 22.42%4.46fair odd
EV +9.21%
Edge +1.89%
Kelly +2.38%
Growth +0.219%
assuming max odds 4.87
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.87%22.35%22.43%24.38%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.184.034.8726.32%23.95%24.84%20.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.32%4.48fair odd
EV +0.438%
Edge +0.097%
Kelly +0.125%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.12%22.30%22.24%23.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.904.164.184.5025.64%24.04%23.95%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: FC Cincinnati (Local): 55.26%; D.C. United (Visit): 22.42%; Draw: 22.32%. For D.C. United (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.46. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.87, corresponding to a positive expected value of +9.21%.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.63%EV -8.83%E -5.35%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.87%EV +9.21%E +1.89%K +2.38%G +0.219% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.50%EV +0.438%E +0.097%K +0.125%G +0.001% | 3.4% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 58.63%EV -8.83%E -5.35%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.87I 20.53%NM 19.87%EV +9.21%E +1.89%K +2.38%G +0.219% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.50%EV +0.438%E +0.097%K +0.125%G +0.001% | 3.4% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.13%EV -10.48%E -6.47%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.47%EV +3.15%E +0.685%K +0.875%G +0.028% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.40%EV -1.79%E -0.408%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-09-05 23:15 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.83%EV -7.72%E -4.62%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.09%EV +0.909%E +0.202%K +0.260%G +0.002% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.07%EV -4.03%E -0.936%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-09-05 23:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.27%EV -7.72%E -4.62%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.36%EV -1.33%E -0.303%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.37%EV -6.26%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-05 23:46 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.47%EV -11.59%E -7.24%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -1.33%E -0.303%K -0.392%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.63%EV -5.14%E -1.21%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-05 23:15 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.06%E -3.57%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.82%EV -2.45%E -0.564%K -0.733%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.34%EV -5.14%E -1.21%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-05 23:45 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.13%EV -11.59%E -7.24%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.11%EV -2.90%E -0.670%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -6.26%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-05 23:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.53%EV -3.30%E -1.89%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.19%EV -3.58%E -0.832%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.28%EV -8.49%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-09-06 01:14 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.06%E -3.57%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -3.58%E -0.832%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.08%EV -4.03%E -0.936%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.99%EV -7.72%E -4.62%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.75%EV -3.58%E -0.832%K -1.08%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -6.26%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.72%E -4.62%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -5.82%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.15%EV -6.26%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-05 23:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.70%EV -8.83%E -5.35%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.88%EV -5.82%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.42%EV -8.49%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.39%EV -8.83%E -5.35%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.76%EV -5.82%E -1.39%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.85%EV -10.72%E -2.68%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.38%EV -4.41%E -2.55%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.23%EV -9.18%E -2.27%K -3.01%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.26%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.65%EV -7.72%E -4.62%K -11.53%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -10.30%E -2.58%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.12%EV -1.79%E -0.408%K -0.528%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.50%EV -6.62%E -3.92%K -9.59%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.03%EV -10.30%E -2.58%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.47%EV -8.49%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.06%E -3.57%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -10.30%E -2.58%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.95%E -3.32%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.06%E -3.57%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -10.30%E -2.58%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.95%E -3.32%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-05 23:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.06%E -3.57%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -10.30%E -2.58%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.95%E -3.32%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.74%EV -6.06%E -3.57%K -8.66%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.84%EV -10.30%E -2.58%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.42%EV -12.95%E -3.32%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 55.25%EV -8.83%E -5.35%K -13.58%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.79%EV -10.30%E -2.58%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 21.97%EV -7.37%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-09-05 23:48 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.62I 61.73%NM 55.84%EV -10.48%E -6.47%K -16.91%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -10.30%E -2.58%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.54%EV -6.26%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.58I 63.29%NM 55.65%EV -12.69%E -8.03%K -21.89%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 21.98%EV -10.30%E -2.58%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 3.93I 25.45%NM 22.37%EV -12.28%E -3.13%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-09-05 23:50 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.30%E -1.89%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -11.42%E -2.89%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.61%EV -7.37%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.63%EV -3.30%E -1.89%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.76%EV -11.42%E -2.89%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.15I 24.10%NM 22.61%EV -7.37%E -1.78%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.60I 62.50%NM 55.70%EV -11.59%E -7.24%K -19.32%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 22.56%EV -11.42%E -2.89%K -3.87%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.74%EV -8.49%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.02%EV -3.30%E -1.89%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.79%EV -12.55%E -3.22%K -4.33%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.19%EV -10.72%E -2.68%K -3.57%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 53.58%EV -4.96%E -2.88%K -6.89%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.94%EV -13.67%E -3.55%K -4.80%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -8.49%E -2.07%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.56%EV -4.41%E -2.55%K -6.04%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.38%EV -14.79%E -3.89%K -5.28%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.06%EV -6.26%E -1.49%K -1.96%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-06 01:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (6)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.49% | 4.55I 21.98%NM 21.73% | 4.76I 21.01%NM 20.77% | 1.1% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.54% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.72% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.73% | 2.3% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.68% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.65% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66% | 2.6% | 2026-09-06 01:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.68% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.65% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66% | 2.6% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.68% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.65% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.66% | 2.6% | 2026-09-06 01:15 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.41% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55% | 3.1% | 2026-09-06 01:25 |