The School of Odds

Chicago Fire v Portland Timbers

2026-08-16 22:00 UTC — MLS

Head to Head

16 sportsbooks (4 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Chicago Fire (Local)

Prediction 57.78%1.73fair odd
EV -1.20%
Edge -0.699%
Kelly -1.68%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.71

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
55.13%57.21%57.78%58.67%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
1.521.611.621.7165.79%62.02%61.73%58.48%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Portland Timbers (Visit)

Prediction 21.25%4.71fair odd
EV -0.974%
Edge -0.209%
Kelly -0.266%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.66

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.66%21.31%21.25%22.69%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.704.284.334.6627.03%23.35%23.09%21.46%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Draw

Prediction 20.97%4.77fair odd
EV -3.54%
Edge -0.770%
Kelly -0.984%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
20.51%21.47%20.97%23.61%MINMEANMEDIANMAX
Odds’ distribution
3.804.174.134.6026.32%23.96%24.24%21.74%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Sportsbook Odds (16 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet1.71I 58.48%NM 56.79%EV -1.20%E -0.699%K -1.68%G +0.000%4.66I 21.46%NM 20.84%EV -0.974%E -0.209%K -0.266%G +0.000%4.34I 23.04%NM 22.37%EV -8.99%E -2.07%K -2.69%G +0.000%3.0%2026-07-26 12:00
888sport1.67I 59.88%NM 55.13%EV -3.51%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.26%EV -7.99%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -18.22%E -4.67%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 13:00
William Hill1.67I 59.88%NM 55.13%EV -3.51%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.26%EV -7.99%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -18.22%E -4.67%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 13:05
888sport (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.13%EV -3.51%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.26%EV -7.99%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -18.22%E -4.67%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 13:00
Mr Green (SE)1.67I 59.88%NM 55.13%EV -3.51%E -2.10%K -5.23%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.26%EV -7.99%E -1.84%K -2.40%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.61%EV -18.22%E -4.67%K -6.28%G +0.000%8.6%2026-07-26 13:00
Coolbet1.64I 60.98%NM 57.84%EV -5.24%E -3.20%K -8.19%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.08%EV -5.64%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-26 12:00
SportsBet1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -6.40%E -3.95%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -2.25%E -0.489%K -0.625%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.66%EV -3.54%E -0.770%K -0.984%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-26 12:00
Betr (AU)1.62I 61.73%NM 58.14%EV -6.40%E -3.95%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.93%EV -5.64%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-26 12:00
LeoVegas1.62I 61.73%NM 55.85%EV -6.40%E -3.95%K -10.32%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 21.80%EV -11.81%E -2.85%K -3.75%G +0.000%4.05I 24.69%NM 22.34%EV -15.07%E -3.72%K -4.94%G +0.000%10.5%2026-07-26 13:05
Paddy Power1.60I 62.50%NM 58.44%EV -7.55%E -4.72%K -12.59%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.78%EV -5.64%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-26 12:00
FanDuel1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -8.13%E -5.11%K -13.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -4.37%E -0.972%K -1.25%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.70%EV -5.64%E -1.25%K -1.61%G +0.000%7.3%2026-07-26 12:00
Winamax (DE)1.56I 64.10%NM 55.87%EV -9.86%E -6.32%K -17.61%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.35%EV -17.12%E -4.39%K -5.90%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 21.79%EV -16.12%E -4.03%K -5.37%G +0.000%14.7%2026-07-26 13:05
Sky Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 57.53%EV -10.44%E -6.74%K -18.98%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.23%EV -10.75%E -2.56%K -3.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.23%EV -11.93%E -2.84%K -3.73%G +0.000%12.1%2026-07-26 12:04
BoyleSports1.55I 64.52%NM 57.29%EV -10.44%E -6.74%K -18.98%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.20%EV -15.00%E -3.75%K -5.00%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.51%EV -9.20%E -2.13%K -2.76%G +0.000%12.6%2026-07-26 11:58
Betclic (FR)1.54I 64.94%NM 55.96%EV -11.02%E -7.15%K -20.40%G +0.000%3.98I 25.13%NM 21.65%EV -15.42%E -3.88%K -5.18%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 22.38%EV -19.27%E -5.00%K -6.76%G +0.000%16.0%2026-07-26 13:05
Winamax (FR)1.52I 65.79%NM 55.22%EV -12.17%E -8.01%K -23.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 22.69%EV -21.37%E -5.78%K -7.92%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.09%EV -20.32%E -5.35%K -7.26%G +0.000%19.1%2026-07-26 13:05
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets1.56I 64.10%NM 55.23%3.90I 25.64%NM 22.09%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.67%16.1%2026-07-26 13:15