Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charlotte FC v Philadelphia Union

Kickoff: 2026-04-04 23:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

58 sportsbooks (18 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Charlotte FC (Local)

Prediction 42.20%2.37fair odd
EV -2.94%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.82%42.23%42.13%43.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.052.182.202.3048.78%45.81%45.45%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Union (Visit)

Prediction 31.00%3.23fair odd
EV +0.754%
Edge +0.232%
Kelly +0.335%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 3.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.33%30.93%31.06%31.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.043.053.2535.71%32.88%32.79%30.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.80%3.73fair odd
EV -1.64%
Edge -0.448%
Kelly -0.615%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.67

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.82%26.84%26.80%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.453.453.6733.33%28.95%28.99%27.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Charlotte FC (Local): 42.20%; Philadelphia Union (Visit): 31.00%; Draw: 26.80%. For Philadelphia Union (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.23. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.754%.

Sportsbook Odds (58 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%EV +0.754%E +0.232%K +0.335%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-04 23:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%EV +0.754%E +0.232%K +0.335%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-04 23:24
Svenska Spel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%EV +0.754%E +0.232%K +0.335%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-04 23:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.54%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 29.47%EV +0.754%E +0.232%K +0.335%G +0.003%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.98%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.4%2026-04-04 23:25
Unibet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -8.85%E -4.10%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -0.796%E -0.249%K -0.362%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 23:24
Unibet (SE)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -8.85%E -4.10%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -0.796%E -0.249%K -0.362%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 23:25
Casumo🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -8.85%E -4.10%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -0.796%E -0.249%K -0.362%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 23:25
Unibet (NL)🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -8.85%E -4.10%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -0.796%E -0.249%K -0.362%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 23:25
betPARX🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -8.85%E -4.10%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -0.796%E -0.249%K -0.362%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 23:24
Bally Bet🎯2.16I 46.30%NM 43.46%EV -8.85%E -4.10%K -7.63%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.33%EV -0.796%E -0.249%K -0.362%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.21%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-04 23:25
Pinnacle🎯2.29I 43.67%NM 42.24%EV -3.37%E -1.47%K -2.61%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.51%EV -1.73%E -0.545%K -0.796%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 27.25%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%3.4%2026-04-04 23:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.27%EV -5.90%E -2.64%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.44%EV -1.73%E -0.545%K -0.796%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.29%EV -1.64%E -0.448%K -0.615%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 22:50
LowVig.ag🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.27%EV -5.90%E -2.64%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.44%EV -1.73%E -0.545%K -0.796%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.29%EV -1.64%E -0.448%K -0.615%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 22:50
BetAnything🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.27%EV -5.90%E -2.64%K -4.79%G +0.000%3.17I 31.55%NM 30.44%EV -1.73%E -0.545%K -0.796%G +0.000%3.67I 27.25%NM 26.29%EV -1.64%E -0.448%K -0.615%G +0.000%3.6%2026-04-04 22:49
BetRivers🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.54%EV -9.27%E -4.31%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.72%EV -2.35%E -0.745%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.74%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 22:50
Grosvenor🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 43.37%EV -9.27%E -4.31%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.60%EV -2.35%E -0.745%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.03%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 23:24
1xBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 42.54%EV -3.79%E -1.66%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.14I 31.85%NM 30.89%EV -2.66%E -0.846%K -1.24%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.57%EV -2.18%E -0.597%K -0.822%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-04 23:24
BetUS🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.38%EV -5.05%E -2.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.76%EV -3.90%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.86%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.9%2026-04-04 23:19
theScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.09%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.58%EV -3.90%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.33%EV -3.52%E -0.977%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.5%2026-04-04 21:45
MyBookie.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.93%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -3.90%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.60%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-04 21:24
SportsBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.05%E -2.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -3.90%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 22:54
FanDuel🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.88%EV -5.05%E -2.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.40%EV -3.90%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.72%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.1%2026-04-04 22:55
Tipico (DE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 42.99%EV -9.27%E -4.31%K -8.06%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.82%EV -3.90%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.19%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 22:54
TABtouch🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.34%EV -10.54%E -4.97%K -9.41%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.64%EV -3.90%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.02%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.8%2026-04-04 23:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.40%EV -11.38%E -5.42%K -10.35%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.40%EV -3.90%E -1.26%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.20%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%9.7%2026-04-04 23:24
GTbets🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 43.16%EV -8.43%E -3.88%K -7.20%G +0.000%3.06I 32.68%NM 30.61%EV -5.14%E -1.68%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.23%EV -4.32%E -1.21%K -1.68%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-04 15:44
NordicBet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.79%E -1.66%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -5.45%E -1.79%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 23:04
Betsson🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.84%EV -3.79%E -1.66%K -2.96%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 31.28%EV -5.45%E -1.79%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.87%EV -4.86%E -1.37%K -1.91%G +0.000%4.8%2026-04-04 23:05
Everygame🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.68%EV -5.05%E -2.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.74%EV -5.45%E -1.79%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.58%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 23:04
LiveScore Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.54%EV -12.65%E -6.11%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -5.45%E -1.79%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 22:50
Virgin Bet🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 43.54%EV -12.65%E -6.11%K -11.82%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 29.55%EV -5.45%E -1.79%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.91%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%10.9%2026-04-04 22:50
Marathon Bet🎯2.21I 45.25%NM 42.18%EV -6.74%E -3.05%K -5.57%G +0.000%3.02I 33.11%NM 30.87%EV -6.38%E -2.11%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 26.94%EV -7.27%E -2.10%K -2.96%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-04 23:03
Coolbet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 42.11%EV -5.05%E -2.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.58%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.32%EV -3.52%E -0.977%K -1.35%G +0.000%5.6%2026-04-04 23:05
Caesars🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -2.94%E -1.28%K -2.26%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.38%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.69%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-04 23:03
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.79%EV -5.05%E -2.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.34%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.87%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-04 15:40
Sky Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.65%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.28%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -3.52%E -0.977%K -1.35%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-04 22:54
Betway🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.05%E -2.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 23:05
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.46%EV -5.05%E -2.25%K -4.04%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.10%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%7.2%2026-04-04 23:09
Bet Victor🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.34%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.05%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.61%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-04 23:03
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.81%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.18%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-04 22:55
PlayUp🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.84%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.68%EV -7.00%E -2.33%K -3.50%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.48%EV -10.22%E -3.05%K -4.35%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-04 23:05
Betr (AU)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.43%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.64%EV -8.55%E -2.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.93%EV -3.52%E -0.977%K -1.35%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-04 23:05
DraftKings🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.29%EV -8.55%E -2.90%K -4.38%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.75%EV -7.54%E -2.19%K -3.08%G +0.000%8.3%2026-04-04 23:01
Bet Right🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.78%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.33%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%8.5%2026-04-04 23:04
888sport🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 23:14
William Hill🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 23:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 23:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.23%EV -7.16%E -3.26%K -5.97%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.28%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.49%EV -11.56%E -3.50%K -5.03%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-04 23:14
Winamax (DE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 43.03%EV -11.38%E -5.42%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.16%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.82%EV -6.20%E -1.77%K -2.48%G +0.000%10.7%2026-04-04 21:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 42.84%EV -12.23%E -5.88%K -11.32%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 30.72%EV -10.10%E -3.48%K -5.31%G +0.000%3.37I 29.67%NM 26.44%EV -9.68%E -2.87%K -4.09%G +0.000%12.2%2026-04-04 23:08
Neds🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.38%E -5.42%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.72%E -3.72%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 21:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.61%EV -11.38%E -5.42%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.07%EV -10.72%E -3.72%K -5.70%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.32%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.8%2026-04-04 21:54
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -11.38%E -5.42%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -11.03%E -3.84%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 21:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.56%EV -11.38%E -5.42%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 31.15%EV -11.03%E -3.84%K -5.90%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-04 21:54
Unibet (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.55%EV -13.49%E -6.58%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 30.61%EV -11.65%E -4.09%K -6.30%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 26.84%EV -12.90%E -3.97%K -5.73%G +0.000%14.6%2026-04-04 23:04
BoyleSports🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.66%EV -9.27%E -4.31%K -8.06%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.99%EV -13.20%E -4.71%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.35%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%11.6%2026-04-04 23:04
Winamax (FR)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 42.83%EV -13.49%E -6.58%K -12.85%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.35%EV -13.20%E -4.71%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 25.82%EV -8.88%E -2.61%K -3.70%G +0.000%13.9%2026-04-04 21:45
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 40.82%EV -11.38%E -5.42%K -10.35%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 30.61%EV -13.20%E -4.71%K -7.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.57%EV -19.60%E -6.53%K -9.80%G +0.000%16.7%2026-04-04 23:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-04-04 23:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-04-04 23:15
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-04-04 23:15
Matchbook2.34I 42.74%NM 42.51%3.25I 30.77%NM 30.61%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.5%2026-04-04 23:15
Smarkets2.32I 43.10%NM 42.36%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.71%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.93%1.8%2026-04-04 23:15
Kalshi2.27I 44.05%NM 43.17%3.23I 30.96%NM 30.34%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.49%2.0%2026-04-04 23:20