Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Montreal v Philadelphia Union

Kickoff: 2026-04-11 18:38 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

57 sportsbooks (17 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

CF Montreal (Local)

Prediction 38.55%2.59fair odd
EV -0.925%
Edge -0.360%
Kelly -0.589%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.17%38.65%38.37%40.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.422.402.5744.44%41.27%41.67%38.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Philadelphia Union (Visit)

Prediction 33.71%2.97fair odd
EV -2.25%
Edge -0.774%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.90

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.21%33.66%33.89%35.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.602.742.752.9038.46%36.50%36.36%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.74%3.60fair odd
EV -0.132%
Edge -0.037%
Kelly -0.051%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.42%27.69%27.74%28.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.373.403.6032.26%29.66%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: CF Montreal (Local): 38.55%; Philadelphia Union (Visit): 33.71%; Draw: 27.74%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.605. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.600, with an expected value of -0.132%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (57 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.73%EV -0.925%E -0.360%K -0.589%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.67%EV -2.92%E -1.01%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.60%EV -5.96%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 18:29
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.70%E -0.665%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.91%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -2.91%E -0.830%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.70%E -0.665%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.91%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -2.91%E -0.830%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.70%E -0.665%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.91%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -2.91%E -0.830%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 18:35
Svenska Spel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.70%E -0.665%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.91%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -2.91%E -0.830%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 18:35
LowVig.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.65%EV -3.62%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.51%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -0.132%E -0.037%K -0.051%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 18:35
BetOnline.ag🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.65%EV -3.62%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.51%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -0.132%E -0.037%K -0.051%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 18:34
GTbets🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.20%EV -3.62%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.35%EV -6.29%E -2.26%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.44%EV -3.46%E -0.995%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-11 18:29
theScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -3.62%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 18:34
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -3.62%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:35
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:34
Unibet (NL)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:34
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:35
betPARX🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:35
Bally Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:35
Grosvenor🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.77%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 18:34
MyBookie.ag🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 18:34
BetAnything🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.42%EV -7.98%E -2.92%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 18:35
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 18:35
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 18:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.06%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.03%EV -7.64%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.92%EV -7.34%E -2.20%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:29
DraftKings🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 18:32
TABtouch🎯2.43I 41.15%NM 37.85%EV -6.32%E -2.60%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.70%EV -10.67%E -4.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -7.07%E -2.11%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 18:34
NordicBet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.34%EV -6.71%E -2.77%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -2.92%E -1.01%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 18:30
Coolbet🎯2.42I 41.32%NM 39.28%EV -6.71%E -2.77%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.95%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -1.52%E -0.428%K -0.596%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 18:29
BetUS🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -0.132%E -0.037%K -0.051%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 18:30
Pinnacle🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.34%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -3.93%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.53%EV -4.85%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 18:35
SportsBet🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.34%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.90%EV -3.26%E -1.13%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 18:35
FanDuel🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -3.93%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 18:35
Caesars🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -2.25%E -0.774%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 18:35
Betr (AU)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -2.91%E -0.830%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 18:29
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 18:31
Fanatics🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 18:34
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -11.23%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 18:29
William Hill🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -11.23%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 18:35
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -11.23%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 18:29
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -11.23%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 18:29
PMU (FR)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.57%EV -11.35%E -4.31%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 18:35
Fliff🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -10.67%E -4.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.84%E -3.03%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -10.67%E -4.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -12.62%E -4.00%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -12.36%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -11.23%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-11 18:34
Coral🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.05%EV -11.68%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -14.00%E -4.52%K -6.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 18:35
Paddy Power🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:35
Betsson🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.04%EV -4.94%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -7.07%E -2.11%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:33
Sky Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 18:35
BoyleSports🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -12.36%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 18:35
LiveScore Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -12.36%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -12.36%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 18:35
Everygame🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -9.41%E -4.00%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 18:29
PlayUp🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.36%EV -9.41%E -4.00%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.03%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -7.07%E -2.11%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 18:29
Bet Right🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -9.41%E -4.00%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 18:29
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -11.33%E -4.93%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -11.35%E -4.31%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -9.84%E -3.03%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-11 18:29
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -11.33%E -4.93%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -11.35%E -4.31%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -9.84%E -3.03%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-11 18:29
Betclic (FR)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.32%EV -11.33%E -4.93%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -10.67%E -4.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -14.00%E -4.52%K -6.67%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-11 18:35
Tipico (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -13.26%E -5.89%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -3.93%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 18:35
Unibet (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -13.26%E -5.89%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -9.84%E -3.03%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-11 18:29
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (6)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.03%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.39%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.58%1.7%2026-04-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 38.93%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52%1.9%2026-04-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 38.93%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52%1.9%2026-04-11 18:35
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 38.89%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.26%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-04-11 18:35
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 38.98%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.70%2.6%2026-04-11 18:35
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 39.42%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.63%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.94%4.0%2026-04-11 18:35