La escuela de los momios

CF Montreal v Philadelphia Union

Inicio: 2026-04-11 18:38 UTC

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

57 corredores (17 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

CF Montreal (Local)

Predicción 38.55%2.59momio equitativo
EV -0.925%
Ventaja -0.360%
Kelly -0.589%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.57

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
37.17%38.65%38.37%40.80%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.252.422.402.5744.44%41.27%41.67%38.91%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Philadelphia Union (Visitante)

Predicción 33.71%2.97momio equitativo
EV -2.25%
Ventaja -0.774%
Kelly -1.18%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.90

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.21%33.66%33.89%35.00%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.742.752.9038.46%36.50%36.36%34.48%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 27.74%3.60momio equitativo
EV -0.132%
Ventaja -0.037%
Kelly -0.051%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.60

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
26.42%27.69%27.74%28.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.103.373.403.6032.26%29.66%29.41%27.78%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (57 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.57I 38.91%NM 37.73%EV -0.925%E -0.360%K -0.589%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.67%EV -2.92%E -1.01%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.39I 29.50%NM 28.60%EV -5.96%E -1.76%K -2.49%G +0.000%3.1%2026-04-11 18:29
LeoVegas2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.70%E -0.665%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.91%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -2.91%E -0.830%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 18:35
LeoVegas (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.70%E -0.665%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.91%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -2.91%E -0.830%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 18:35
ATG (SE)2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.70%E -0.665%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.91%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -2.91%E -0.830%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 18:35
Svenska Spel2.55I 39.22%NM 37.65%EV -1.70%E -0.665%K -1.09%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.91%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.43%EV -2.91%E -0.830%K -1.16%G +0.000%4.2%2026-04-11 18:35
LowVig.ag2.50I 40.00%NM 38.65%EV -3.62%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.51%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -0.132%E -0.037%K -0.051%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 18:35
BetOnline.ag2.50I 40.00%NM 38.65%EV -3.62%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.51%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.84%EV -0.132%E -0.037%K -0.051%G +0.000%3.5%2026-04-11 18:34
GTbets2.50I 40.00%NM 38.20%EV -3.62%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.35%EV -6.29%E -2.26%K -3.53%G +0.000%3.48I 28.74%NM 27.44%EV -3.46%E -0.995%K -1.40%G +0.000%4.7%2026-04-11 18:29
theScore Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -3.62%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.97%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.98%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.1%2026-04-11 18:34
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 37.26%EV -3.62%E -1.45%K -2.42%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.23%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:35
Casumo2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:34
Unibet (NL)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:34
Unibet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:35
Unibet (SE)2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:35
betPARX2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:35
Bally Bet2.48I 40.32%NM 37.92%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.83%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.26%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.3%2026-04-11 18:35
Grosvenor2.48I 40.32%NM 37.77%EV -4.39%E -1.77%K -2.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.69%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.55%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 18:34
MyBookie.ag2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 18:34
BetAnything2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 34.42%EV -7.98%E -2.92%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.23%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-04-11 18:35
Bet Victor2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 18:35
PointsBet (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.59%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 18:30
Marathon Bet2.45I 40.82%NM 38.06%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.74I 36.50%NM 34.03%EV -7.64%E -2.79%K -4.39%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.92%EV -7.34%E -2.20%K -3.14%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:29
DraftKings2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.55%E -2.27%K -3.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.83%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.19%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%7.5%2026-04-11 18:32
TABtouch2.43I 41.15%NM 37.85%EV -6.32%E -2.60%K -4.42%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.70%EV -10.67%E -4.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.45%EV -7.07%E -2.11%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 18:34
NordicBet2.42I 41.32%NM 39.34%EV -6.71%E -2.77%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 33.06%EV -2.92%E -1.01%K -1.55%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.60%EV -4.29%E -1.24%K -1.75%G +0.000%5.0%2026-04-11 18:30
Coolbet2.42I 41.32%NM 39.28%EV -6.71%E -2.77%K -4.72%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.95%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.78%EV -1.52%E -0.428%K -0.596%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 18:29
BetUS2.40I 41.67%NM 39.62%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.96%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.42%EV -0.132%E -0.037%K -0.051%G +0.000%5.2%2026-04-11 18:30
Pinnacle2.40I 41.67%NM 39.34%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.13%EV -3.93%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.43I 29.15%NM 27.53%EV -4.85%E -1.41%K -2.00%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 18:35
SportsBet2.40I 41.67%NM 39.34%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.90%EV -3.26%E -1.13%K -1.74%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.77%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-04-11 18:35
FanDuel2.40I 41.67%NM 39.25%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 33.05%EV -3.93%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.70%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.2%2026-04-11 18:35
Caesars2.40I 41.67%NM 39.14%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.39%EV -2.25%E -0.774%K -1.18%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.47%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%6.5%2026-04-11 18:35
Betr (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.09%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.11%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.80%EV -2.91%E -0.830%K -1.16%G +0.000%6.6%2026-04-11 18:29
TAB2.40I 41.67%NM 39.02%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.54%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%6.8%2026-04-11 18:31
Fanatics2.40I 41.67%NM 38.78%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.37%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.4%2026-04-11 18:34
888sport2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -11.23%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 18:29
William Hill2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -11.23%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 18:35
888sport (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -11.23%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 18:29
Mr Green (SE)2.40I 41.67%NM 38.13%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.60%EV -11.23%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%9.3%2026-04-11 18:29
PMU (FR)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.88%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.57%EV -11.35%E -4.31%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.55%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.0%2026-04-11 18:35
Fliff2.40I 41.67%NM 37.82%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.25%EV -10.67%E -4.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.93%EV -9.84%E -3.03%K -4.37%G +0.000%10.2%2026-04-11 18:35
Winamax (DE)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.49%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.95%EV -10.67%E -4.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.56%EV -12.62%E -4.00%K -5.87%G +0.000%11.1%2026-04-11 18:34
Ladbrokes (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.41%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.53%EV -12.36%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.06%EV -11.23%E -3.51%K -5.10%G +0.000%11.4%2026-04-11 18:34
Coral2.40I 41.67%NM 37.17%EV -7.48%E -3.12%K -5.34%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.05%EV -11.68%E -4.46%K -7.21%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.78%EV -14.00%E -4.52%K -6.67%G +0.000%12.1%2026-04-11 18:35
Paddy Power2.38I 42.02%NM 39.22%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.45%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.1%2026-04-11 18:35
Betsson2.38I 42.02%NM 39.15%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.82I 35.46%NM 33.04%EV -4.94%E -1.75%K -2.72%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.81%EV -7.07%E -2.11%K -3.01%G +0.000%7.3%2026-04-11 18:33
Sky Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 38.66%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.46%EV -7.30%E -2.66%K -4.17%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.88%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%8.7%2026-04-11 18:35
BoyleSports2.38I 42.02%NM 38.24%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 35.00%EV -12.36%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.9%2026-04-11 18:35
LiveScore Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -12.36%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 18:35
Virgin Bet2.38I 42.02%NM 37.93%EV -8.25%E -3.47%K -5.98%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.72%EV -12.36%E -4.75%K -7.72%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.35%EV -8.45%E -2.56%K -3.68%G +0.000%10.8%2026-04-11 18:35
Everygame2.35I 42.55%NM 39.52%EV -9.41%E -4.00%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.17%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.31%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%7.7%2026-04-11 18:29
PlayUp2.35I 42.55%NM 39.36%EV -9.41%E -4.00%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.03%EV -5.62%E -2.01%K -3.12%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.61%EV -7.07%E -2.11%K -3.01%G +0.000%8.1%2026-04-11 18:29
Bet Right2.35I 42.55%NM 39.04%EV -9.41%E -4.00%K -6.97%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.98%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%9.0%2026-04-11 18:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -11.33%E -4.93%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -11.35%E -4.31%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -9.84%E -3.03%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-11 18:29
Neds2.30I 43.48%NM 38.73%EV -11.33%E -4.93%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.87%EV -11.35%E -4.31%K -6.96%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -9.84%E -3.03%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-11 18:29
Betclic (FR)2.30I 43.48%NM 38.32%EV -11.33%E -4.93%K -8.72%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.26%EV -10.67%E -4.03%K -6.47%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 28.43%EV -14.00%E -4.52%K -6.67%G +0.000%13.5%2026-04-11 18:35
Tipico (DE)2.25I 44.44%NM 40.80%EV -13.26%E -5.89%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.21%EV -3.93%E -1.38%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.00%EV -5.68%E -1.67%K -2.37%G +0.000%8.9%2026-04-11 18:35
Unibet (FR)2.25I 44.44%NM 39.59%EV -13.26%E -5.89%K -10.61%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 32.99%EV -8.99%E -3.33%K -5.29%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.41%EV -9.84%E -3.03%K -4.37%G +0.000%12.3%2026-04-11 18:29
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (6)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.52I 39.68%NM 39.03%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.39%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.58%1.7%2026-04-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.52I 39.68%NM 38.93%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52%1.9%2026-04-11 18:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.52I 39.68%NM 38.93%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.55%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.52%1.9%2026-04-11 18:35
Matchbook2.52I 39.68%NM 38.89%2.86I 34.97%NM 34.26%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.85%2.0%2026-04-11 18:35
Smarkets2.50I 40.00%NM 38.98%2.84I 35.21%NM 34.32%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.70%2.6%2026-04-11 18:35
Kalshi2.44I 40.98%NM 39.42%2.86I 34.97%NM 33.63%3.57I 28.01%NM 26.94%4.0%2026-04-11 18:35