La escuela de los momios

CF Montreal v Chicago Fire

Inicio: 2026-05-16 20:36 UTC

Final: CF Montreal 0–2 Chicago Fire

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

46 corredores (15 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

CF Montreal (Local)

Predicción 33.65%2.97momio equitativo
EV -1.07%
Ventaja -0.363%
Kelly -0.549%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.94

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
32.24%33.54%33.73%35.41%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.602.762.772.9438.46%36.24%36.04%34.01%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Chicago Fire (Visitante)

Predicción 40.33%2.48momio equitativo
EV -2.39%
Ventaja -0.987%
Kelly -1.68%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 2.42

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
38.84%40.44%40.32%42.50%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
2.182.292.302.4245.87%43.59%43.48%41.32%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Empate

Predicción 26.01%3.84momio equitativo
EV -1.67%
Ventaja -0.441%
Kelly -0.600%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 3.78

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
24.55%26.02%25.95%28.54%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
3.003.573.603.7833.33%28.01%27.78%26.46%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (46 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocal ▼VisitanteEmpateMargenActualizado
1xBet2.94I 34.01%NM 33.02%EV -1.07%E -0.363%K -0.549%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 41.31%EV -5.21%E -2.22%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.78I 26.46%NM 25.68%EV -1.67%E -0.441%K -0.600%G +0.000%3.0%2026-05-16 20:29
ATG (SE)2.90I 34.48%NM 33.13%EV -2.41%E -0.832%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.24%EV -6.02%E -2.58%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.62%EV -2.45%E -0.653%K -0.890%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-16 20:35
Svenska Spel2.90I 34.48%NM 33.13%EV -2.41%E -0.832%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.33I 42.92%NM 41.24%EV -6.02%E -2.58%K -4.53%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.62%EV -2.45%E -0.653%K -0.890%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-16 20:35
Caesars2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -2.41%E -0.832%K -1.27%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -11.26%E -5.12%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 20:30
BetOnline.ag2.86I 34.97%NM 33.80%EV -3.76%E -1.31%K -2.02%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 40.28%EV -3.20%E -1.33%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 25.92%EV -2.97%E -0.796%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.4%2026-05-16 20:35
Coolbet2.85I 35.09%NM 34.04%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.09%EV -2.39%E -0.987%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.87%EV -2.45%E -0.653%K -0.890%G +0.000%3.1%2026-05-16 20:28
Pinnacle2.85I 35.09%NM 33.97%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.42I 41.32%NM 40.01%EV -2.39%E -0.987%K -1.68%G +0.000%3.72I 26.88%NM 26.03%EV -3.23%E -0.868%K -1.19%G +0.000%3.3%2026-05-16 20:29
BetUS2.85I 35.09%NM 33.40%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.21%E -2.22%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.08%EV -5.05%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%5.0%2026-05-16 20:29
DraftKings2.85I 35.09%NM 33.34%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.32%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.34%EV -2.45%E -0.653%K -0.890%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-16 20:35
FanDuel2.85I 35.09%NM 33.28%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.37%EV -5.21%E -2.22%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.35%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-16 20:35
Bovada2.85I 35.09%NM 33.23%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-16 20:35
PointsBet (AU)2.85I 35.09%NM 33.04%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.06%EV -5.21%E -2.22%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.90%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%6.2%2026-05-16 20:29
Hard Rock Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.88%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.12%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 20:35
Unibet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -8.04%E -3.52%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -5.05%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 20:35
Unibet (NL)2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -8.04%E -3.52%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -5.05%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 20:35
Bally Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.99%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 41.24%EV -8.04%E -3.52%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -5.05%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%6.3%2026-05-16 20:35
Marathon Bet2.85I 35.09%NM 32.74%EV -4.09%E -1.44%K -2.21%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.75%EV -7.63%E -3.33%K -5.92%G +0.000%3.52I 28.41%NM 26.51%EV -8.43%E -2.40%K -3.35%G +0.000%7.2%2026-05-16 20:29
GTbets2.82I 35.46%NM 33.68%EV -5.10%E -1.81%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.59%EV -5.62%E -2.40%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.69I 27.10%NM 25.74%EV -4.01%E -1.09%K -1.49%G +0.000%5.3%2026-05-16 20:35
NordicBet2.82I 35.46%NM 32.99%EV -5.10%E -1.81%K -2.80%G +0.000%2.28I 43.86%NM 40.80%EV -8.04%E -3.52%K -6.28%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.21%EV -7.65%E -2.15%K -3.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-05-16 20:35
Bet Victor2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.78%E -2.06%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 20:34
Everygame2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.78%E -2.06%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 20:29
Paddy Power2.80I 35.71%NM 33.14%EV -5.78%E -2.06%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.35%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.51%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.8%2026-05-16 20:34
Tipico (DE)2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -5.78%E -2.06%K -3.21%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -11.26%E -5.12%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%8.9%2026-05-16 20:35
Sky Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.03%EV -7.46%E -2.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.68%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.29%EV -3.75%E -1.01%K -1.39%G +0.000%6.9%2026-05-16 20:35
Betway2.75I 36.36%NM 34.00%EV -7.46%E -2.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.29%EV -4.00%E -1.68%K -2.90%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.71%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 20:35
MyBookie.ag2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%EV -7.46%E -2.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -9.25%E -4.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -5.05%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%8.2%2026-05-16 20:35
PlayUp2.75I 36.36%NM 33.54%EV -7.46%E -2.71%K -4.26%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.10%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.35%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%8.4%2026-05-16 20:29
TAB2.70I 37.04%NM 34.53%EV -9.14%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.84%EV -3.20%E -1.33%K -2.28%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.63%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%7.3%2026-05-16 20:35
BetMGM2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50%EV -9.14%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.63%EV -5.21%E -2.22%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.87%EV -6.35%E -1.76%K -2.44%G +0.000%7.4%2026-05-16 20:35
888sport2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -9.14%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 20:29
888sport (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -9.14%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 20:29
Mr Green (SE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -9.14%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.55%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.76%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000%9.9%2026-05-16 20:29
Winamax (DE)2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -9.14%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.77%EV -11.26%E -5.12%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.00%EV -10.25%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-16 20:35
LiveScore Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -9.14%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.15%EV -12.07%E -5.54%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-16 20:35
Virgin Bet2.70I 37.04%NM 33.22%EV -9.14%E -3.39%K -5.38%G +0.000%2.18I 45.87%NM 41.15%EV -12.07%E -5.54%K -10.23%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.63%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%11.5%2026-05-16 20:35
Betr (AU)2.65I 37.74%NM 35.28%EV -10.82%E -4.08%K -6.56%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.79%EV -5.21%E -2.22%K -3.86%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.93%EV -2.45%E -0.653%K -0.890%G +0.000%7.0%2026-05-16 20:29
Neds2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -11.50%E -4.37%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -9.25%E -4.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 20:29
Ladbrokes (AU)2.63I 38.02%NM 33.99%EV -11.50%E -4.37%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.73%EV -9.25%E -4.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.29%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 20:29
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.63I 38.02%NM 32.55%EV -11.50%E -4.37%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 38.91%EV -11.26%E -5.12%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.54%EV -21.96%E -7.32%K -10.98%G +0.000%16.8%2026-05-16 20:35
Betclic (FR)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.08%EV -11.83%E -4.52%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.23I 44.84%NM 40.04%EV -10.05%E -4.51%K -8.17%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.88%EV -10.25%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 20:29
Coral2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -11.83%E -4.52%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -9.25%E -4.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 20:35
Ladbrokes (UK)2.62I 38.17%NM 34.07%EV -11.83%E -4.52%K -7.31%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.67%EV -9.25%E -4.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.25%EV -11.55%E -3.40%K -4.81%G +0.000%12.0%2026-05-16 20:35
betfred_uk2.60I 38.46%NM 35.41%EV -12.51%E -4.81%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.03%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.55%EV -2.45%E -0.653%K -0.890%G +0.000%8.6%2026-05-16 20:29
Bet Right2.60I 38.46%NM 35.18%EV -12.51%E -4.81%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 39.77%EV -7.23%E -3.14%K -5.56%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.06%EV -5.05%E -1.38%K -1.91%G +0.000%9.3%2026-05-16 20:29
Unibet (FR)2.60I 38.46%NM 34.37%EV -12.51%E -4.81%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.72%EV -9.25%E -4.11%K -7.40%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.91%EV -10.25%E -2.97%K -4.18%G +0.000%11.9%2026-05-16 20:28
BoyleSports2.60I 38.46%NM 34.19%EV -12.51%E -4.81%K -7.82%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.41%EV -11.26%E -5.12%K -9.39%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -8.95%E -2.56%K -3.58%G +0.000%12.5%2026-05-16 20:35
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (2)

CorredorLocalVisitanteEmpateMargen ▲Actualizado
Betfair Exchange (EU)3.00I 33.33%NM 32.67%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.19%3.75I 26.67%NM 26.14%2.0%2026-05-16 20:35
Smarkets2.94I 34.01%NM 33.00%2.38I 42.02%NM 40.77%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.23%3.1%2026-05-16 20:35