Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Switzerland v Slovenia

2026-10-03 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Switzerland (Local)

Prediction 67.57%1.48fair odd
EV -3.37%
Edge -2.36%
Kelly -7.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.43

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.00%67.47%67.53%68.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.331.381.381.4375.19%72.51%72.46%69.93%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Slovenia (Visit)

Prediction 12.26%8.16fair odd
EV +5.45%
Edge +0.634%
Kelly +0.717%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 8.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
11.28%12.32%12.25%14.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.257.557.508.6016.00%13.24%13.33%11.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 20.17%4.96fair odd
EV -0.980%
Edge -0.200%
Kelly -0.251%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.53%20.20%20.22%21.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.204.564.504.9123.81%21.94%22.22%20.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Switzerland (Local): 67.57%; Slovenia (Visit): 12.26%; Draw: 20.17%. For Slovenia (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.16. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 8.60, producing a positive expected value of +5.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.41I 70.92%NM 68.91%EV -4.72%E -3.35%K -11.52%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 11.30%EV +5.45%E +0.634%K +0.717%G +0.039%4.91I 20.37%NM 19.79%EV -0.980%E -0.200%K -0.251%G +0.000%2.9%2026-09-30 11:43
Marathon Bet🎯1.39I 71.94%NM 68.96%EV -6.08%E -4.37%K -15.58%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 11.28%EV +4.22%E +0.497%K +0.563%G +0.024%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.76%EV -2.19%E -0.452%K -0.569%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-30 11:41
Unibet (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43%EV -3.37%E -2.36%K -7.84%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.05%EV -1.91%E -0.239%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.52%EV -5.22%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-30 11:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43%EV -3.37%E -2.36%K -7.84%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.05%EV -1.91%E -0.239%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.52%EV -5.22%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-30 11:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.43I 69.93%NM 67.43%EV -3.37%E -2.36%K -7.84%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 12.05%EV -1.91%E -0.239%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.52%EV -5.22%E -1.11%K -1.41%G +0.000%3.7%2026-09-30 11:34
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV -1.91%E -0.239%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.89%EV -3.20%E -0.666%K -0.842%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-30 09:35
Coral🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.93%EV -1.91%E -0.239%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.89%EV -3.20%E -0.666%K -0.842%G +0.000%4.8%2026-09-30 09:34
Betway🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 68.35%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.79%EV -1.91%E -0.239%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.86%EV -4.21%E -0.886%K -1.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-30 11:05
BoyleSports🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.92%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -1.91%E -0.239%K -0.273%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-30 09:45
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.66%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.05%EV -4.97%E -0.642%K -0.737%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -7.23%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-30 09:35
Neds🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.66%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.05%EV -4.97%E -0.642%K -0.737%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.30%EV -7.23%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-30 09:35
BetMGM🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 68.41%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 12.00%EV -4.97%E -0.642%K -0.737%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.59%EV -4.21%E -0.886%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-30 09:33
Unibet (UK)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 67.50%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.60%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.90%EV -4.21%E -0.886%K -1.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-09-30 09:35
Unibet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 11:34
Casumo🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 11:34
Bally Bet🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.77%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.46%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-30 11:35
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.45%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -11.27%E -2.56%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-30 11:34
BetRivers🎯1.40I 71.43%NM 66.45%EV -5.40%E -3.86%K -13.50%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.40%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.14%EV -11.27%E -2.56%K -3.31%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-30 11:35
LiveScore Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -11.27%E -2.56%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-30 11:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -11.27%E -2.56%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-30 11:35
TABtouch🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 66.77%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.29%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.94%EV -11.27%E -2.56%K -3.31%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-30 11:34
betfred_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-30 09:34
888sport🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-30 10:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-30 10:25
888sport (SE)🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.41%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.22%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-30 10:24
betano_uk🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -11.27%E -2.56%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-30 11:08
Bet Victor🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -11.27%E -2.56%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-30 11:09
William Hill🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.09%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.17%EV -8.04%E -1.07%K -1.24%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 20.74%EV -11.27%E -2.56%K -3.31%G +0.000%9.6%2026-09-30 10:25
Suprabets🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 67.59%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.42%EV -9.27%E -1.25%K -1.45%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV -7.23%E -1.57%K -2.01%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-30 11:16
Betclic (FR)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 67.29%EV -8.78%E -6.50%K -25.08%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.53%EV -11.10%E -1.53%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.19%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-30 09:40
MyBookie.ag🎯1.37I 72.99%NM 66.90%EV -7.43%E -5.42%K -20.07%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.73%EV -11.72%E -1.63%K -1.89%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.37%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-30 09:39
LeoVegas🎯1.38I 72.46%NM 67.22%EV -6.75%E -4.89%K -17.77%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 13.25%EV -14.17%E -2.02%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.53%EV -4.21%E -0.886%K -1.12%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-30 12:10
DraftKings🎯1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -8.10%E -5.96%K -22.51%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV -14.17%E -2.02%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-30 13:00
PMU (FR)🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 66.20%EV -9.45%E -7.06%K -27.81%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.67%EV -14.17%E -2.02%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.12%EV -15.30%E -3.64%K -4.78%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-30 11:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.35I 74.07%NM 66.33%EV -8.78%E -6.50%K -25.08%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 13.78%EV -20.30%E -3.12%K -3.69%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.90%EV -9.25%E -2.06%K -2.64%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-30 09:35
Winamax (FR)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 66.00%EV -10.13%E -7.62%K -30.70%G +0.000%6.25I 16.00%NM 14.05%EV -23.37%E -3.74%K -4.45%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 19.95%EV -11.27%E -2.56%K -3.31%G +0.000%13.9%2026-09-30 09:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.