The School of Odds
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Romania v Poland

2026-11-14 19:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Romania (Local)

Prediction 26.97%3.71fair odd
EV -0.203%
Edge -0.055%
Kelly -0.075%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.03%26.92%26.94%27.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.183.483.503.7031.45%28.77%28.57%27.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Poland (Visit)

Prediction 46.78%2.14fair odd
EV -3.64%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -3.44%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.06

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.12%46.74%46.83%47.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.881.971.972.0653.19%50.65%50.76%48.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 26.25%3.81fair odd
EV -1.82%
Edge -0.485%
Kelly -0.662%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.74

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.51%26.34%26.23%27.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.203.513.503.7431.25%28.48%28.57%26.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Romania (Local): 26.97%; Poland (Visit): 46.78%; Draw: 26.25%. For Romania (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.71. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 3.70, with an expected value of -0.203%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Unibet (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -0.203%E -0.055%K -0.075%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -5.51%E -2.73%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -2.87%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-03 11:20
ATG (SE)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -0.203%E -0.055%K -0.075%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -5.51%E -2.73%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -2.87%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-03 11:20
Svenska Spel🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -0.203%E -0.055%K -0.075%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.80%EV -5.51%E -2.73%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.10%EV -2.87%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%3.6%2026-11-03 11:19
Unibet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -2.90%E -0.806%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.44%EV -7.39%E -3.73%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-03 11:20
Casumo🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -2.90%E -0.806%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -7.85%E -3.99%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-03 11:19
Bally Bet🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -2.90%E -0.806%K -1.12%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 47.57%EV -7.85%E -3.99%K -8.10%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.40%EV -6.80%E -1.92%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.7%2026-11-03 11:20
1xBet🎯3.58I 27.93%NM 27.06%EV -3.44%E -0.961%K -1.33%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 47.03%EV -3.64%E -1.77%K -3.44%G +0.000%3.74I 26.74%NM 25.91%EV -1.82%E -0.485%K -0.662%G +0.000%3.2%2026-11-03 11:19
Bovada🎯3.55I 28.17%NM 26.46%EV -4.25%E -1.20%K -1.67%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.44%EV -7.39%E -3.73%K -7.54%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.09%EV -5.49%E -1.53%K -2.11%G +0.000%6.5%2026-11-03 11:19
Marathon Bet🎯3.54I 28.25%NM 27.09%EV -4.52%E -1.28%K -1.78%G +0.000%2.04I 49.02%NM 47.00%EV -4.58%E -2.24%K -4.40%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.91%EV -2.87%E -0.774%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.3%2026-11-03 11:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -8.79%E -4.51%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.43%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-03 11:20
Virgin Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -8.79%E -4.51%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.43%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-03 11:20
LiveScore Bet🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -8.79%E -4.51%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.43%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-03 11:19
BetRivers🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.25%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 47.12%EV -8.79%E -4.51%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.63%EV -9.43%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.8%2026-11-03 13:30
TABtouch🎯3.50I 28.57%NM 26.19%EV -5.60%E -1.60%K -2.24%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 47.25%EV -9.26%E -4.77%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.57%EV -9.43%E -2.73%K -3.85%G +0.000%9.1%2026-11-03 11:20
Winamax (DE)🎯3.45I 28.99%NM 26.99%EV -6.95%E -2.01%K -2.84%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.50%EV -8.32%E -4.25%K -8.67%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.51%EV -4.18%E -1.14%K -1.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-11-03 11:19
888sport🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.29%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.45%E -3.22%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-03 11:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.29%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.45%E -3.22%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-03 11:20
888sport (SE)🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 27.24%EV -8.29%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 46.30%EV -6.45%E -3.22%K -6.45%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.46%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%8.0%2026-11-03 11:20
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -8.29%E -2.44%K -3.46%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.93%EV -8.79%E -4.51%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.15%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%9.3%2026-11-03 11:19
Winamax (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.01%EV -9.64%E -2.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 47.13%EV -10.19%E -5.31%K -11.08%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.86%EV -8.12%E -2.32%K -3.25%G +0.000%10.5%2026-11-03 11:20
PMU (FR)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 26.34%EV -9.64%E -2.88%K -4.10%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.93%EV -12.06%E -6.42%K -13.71%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.74%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%13.3%2026-11-03 11:20
LeoVegas🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.75%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 45.33%EV -5.51%E -2.73%K -5.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.93%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%9.2%2026-11-03 11:19
William Hill🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.30%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.20%EV -8.79%E -4.51%K -9.25%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.50%EV -10.74%E -3.16%K -4.48%G +0.000%11.0%2026-11-03 11:20
Betclic (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -10.99%E -3.33%K -4.78%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.96%EV -9.26%E -4.77%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 27.02%EV -13.37%E -4.05%K -5.81%G +0.000%12.2%2026-11-03 11:20
ReBet🎯3.18I 31.45%NM 27.53%EV -14.23%E -4.47%K -6.53%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 45.12%EV -9.26%E -4.77%K -9.85%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 27.35%EV -15.99%E -5.00%K -7.27%G +0.000%14.2%2026-11-03 11:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 27.53%1.20I 83.33%NM 44.51%1.91I 52.36%NM 27.96%87.2%2026-11-03 11:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.94I 51.55%NM 27.53%1.20I 83.33%NM 44.51%1.91I 52.36%NM 27.96%87.2%2026-11-03 11:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.12I 89.29%NM 39.69%1.20I 83.33%NM 37.04%1.91I 52.36%NM 23.27%125.0%2026-11-03 11:20