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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Norway v Portugal

开赛时间： 2026-09-27 18:45 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

31 家博彩公司 (9 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Norway (主队)

预测 41.15%2.43公平赔率
EV +0.397%
优势 +0.163%
Kelly +0.276%
增长率 +0.001%

假设最高赔率为 2.44

博彩公司预测分布
39.32%41.28%41.08%42.50%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.172.272.252.4446.08%43.98%44.44%40.98%最小值均值中位数最大值

Portugal (客队)

预测 33.70%2.97公平赔率
EV -2.28%
优势 -0.785%
Kelly -1.20%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.90

博彩公司预测分布
32.24%33.66%33.60%35.72%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.622.782.802.9038.17%36.00%35.71%34.48%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 25.16%3.98公平赔率
EV -0.636%
优势 -0.161%
Kelly -0.216%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.95

博彩公司预测分布
23.33%25.07%25.32%26.03%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.453.703.703.9528.99%27.04%27.03%25.32%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Norway (主队)：41.15%；Portugal (客队)：33.70%；平局：25.16%。 对于“Norway (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.43。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.44，对应+0.397%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (31 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队平局利润率更新时间
1xBet🎯2.44I 40.98%NM 39.36%EV +0.397%E +0.163%K +0.276%G +0.001%2.71I 36.90%NM 35.44%EV -8.68%E -3.20%K -5.07%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.21%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%4.1%2026-09-27 18:39
Pinnacle🎯2.41I 41.49%NM 40.16%EV -0.837%E -0.347%K -0.594%G +0.000%2.81I 35.59%NM 34.44%EV -5.31%E -1.89%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 25.40%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-27 18:30
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 39.32%EV -2.07%E -0.870%K -1.50%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.72%EV -11.71%E -4.47%K -7.23%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.96%EV -5.67%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-09-27 06:30
Marathon Bet🎯2.36I 42.37%NM 41.08%EV -2.89%E -1.23%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.89I 34.60%NM 33.54%EV -2.61%E -0.904%K -1.38%G +0.000%3.82I 26.18%NM 25.38%EV -3.91%E -1.02%K -1.39%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-27 18:40
ATG (SE)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.31%EV -3.31%E -1.41%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.48%EV -2.28%E -0.785%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV -3.15%E -0.819%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-27 18:30
Svenska Spel🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 41.31%EV -3.31%E -1.41%K -2.45%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 33.48%EV -2.28%E -0.785%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.22%EV -3.15%E -0.819%K -1.11%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-27 18:30
Suprabets🎯2.31I 43.29%NM 41.03%EV -4.95%E -2.14%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.78I 35.97%NM 34.09%EV -6.32%E -2.27%K -3.55%G +0.000%3.81I 26.25%NM 24.88%EV -4.16%E -1.09%K -1.48%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-27 18:39
Coral🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.93%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.62%EV -5.65%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.44%EV -6.93%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-27 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.65%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.44%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-27 18:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.65%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.44%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-27 18:30
Neds🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.65%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.39%EV -5.65%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.97%EV -9.44%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-27 18:30
BoyleSports🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.56%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.56%EV -9.02%E -3.34%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 24.88%EV -5.67%E -1.51%K -2.06%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-27 18:29
LeoVegas🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 40.29%EV -5.36%E -2.33%K -4.13%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.32%EV -9.02%E -3.34%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.39%EV -8.18%E -2.24%K -3.09%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-27 18:10
Casumo🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.19%E -2.71%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%EV -5.65%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.93%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-27 18:30
Unibet🎯2.28I 43.86%NM 41.14%EV -6.19%E -2.71%K -4.83%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50%EV -5.65%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.35%EV -6.93%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-27 18:30
Bovada🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.74%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.54%EV -5.65%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.72%EV -4.41%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-27 18:40
NordicBet🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -2.28%E -0.785%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -9.44%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-27 18:40
Betsson🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.65%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.32%EV -2.28%E -0.785%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.03%EV -9.44%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-27 18:40
TAB🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.18%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.09%EV -5.65%E -2.02%K -3.14%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -9.44%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-27 18:40
DraftKings🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.07%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.61%EV -7.33%E -2.67%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.32%EV -8.18%E -2.24%K -3.09%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-27 18:39
BetRivers🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.93%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.49%EV -7.33%E -2.67%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.58%EV -9.44%E -2.62%K -3.63%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-27 18:30
William Hill🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 40.38%EV -7.42%E -3.30%K -5.94%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.65%EV -9.02%E -3.34%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -11.96%E -3.42%K -4.78%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-27 18:39
SportsBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -9.48%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -2.28%E -0.785%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.93%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-27 18:40
FanDuel🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.50%EV -9.48%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.24%EV -2.28%E -0.785%K -1.20%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.27%EV -6.93%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-27 18:39
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.40%EV -9.48%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.39%EV -2.95%E -1.02%K -1.57%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.21%EV -6.93%E -1.87%K -2.56%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-27 18:40
Winamax (DE)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.89%EV -9.48%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.78%EV -10.70%E -4.04%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.33%EV -0.636%E -0.161%K -0.216%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-27 18:10
Betclic (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.78%EV -9.48%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.04%EV -9.02%E -3.34%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.19%EV -4.41%E -1.16%K -1.57%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-27 18:22
Winamax (FR)🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.77%EV -9.48%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.67%EV -10.70%E -4.04%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.90I 25.64%NM 23.56%EV -1.89%E -0.486%K -0.653%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-27 18:10
Virgin Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -9.48%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -9.02%E -3.34%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -10.70%E -3.01%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-27 18:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.08%EV -9.48%E -4.31%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.47%EV -9.02%E -3.34%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.46%EV -10.70%E -3.01%K -4.20%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-27 18:30
PMU (FR)🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 40.75%EV -10.71%E -4.94%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 33.62%EV -11.37%E -4.32%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -13.21%E -3.83%K -5.39%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-27 18:30
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.04%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44%0.8%2026-09-27 18:40
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.04%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44%0.8%2026-09-27 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.36I 42.37%NM 42.04%3.05I 32.79%NM 32.53%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.44%0.8%2026-09-27 18:40