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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
+ 新建模型所有模型

Norway v Denmark

开赛时间： 2026-09-24 18:45 UTC

最终结果： Norway 3–2 Denmark

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

31 家博彩公司 (9 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Norway (主队)

预测 58.66%1.70公平赔率
EV -3.21%
优势 -1.94%
Kelly -4.93%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.65

博彩公司预测分布
57.91%58.79%58.68%60.59%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.531.591.601.6565.36%62.91%62.50%60.61%最小值均值中位数最大值

Denmark (客队)

预测 18.97%5.27公平赔率
EV +4.33%
优势 +0.787%
Kelly +0.962%
增长率 +0.042%

假设最高赔率为 5.50

博彩公司预测分布
17.68%18.99%18.94%20.57%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
4.334.964.955.5023.09%20.18%20.20%18.18%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 22.37%4.47公平赔率
EV +0.656%
优势 +0.146%
Kelly +0.187%
增长率 +0.001%

假设最高赔率为 4.50

博彩公司预测分布
21.09%22.22%22.38%22.99%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
4.004.244.204.5025.00%23.60%23.81%22.22%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Norway (主队)：58.66%；Denmark (客队)：18.97%；平局：22.37%。 对于“Denmark (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为5.27。 当时有2家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为5.50，对应+4.33%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (31 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队客队 ▼平局利润率更新时间
Svenska Spel🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.59%EV -5.55%E -3.45%K -9.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.74%EV +4.33%E +0.787%K +0.962%G +0.042%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.68%EV +0.656%E +0.146%K +0.187%G +0.001%2.5%2026-09-24 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 60.59%EV -5.55%E -3.45%K -9.10%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.74%EV +4.33%E +0.787%K +0.962%G +0.042%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.68%EV +0.656%E +0.146%K +0.187%G +0.001%2.5%2026-09-24 18:25
Unibet🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 59.78%EV -7.90%E -5.03%K -13.86%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.88%EV -0.415%E -0.079%K -0.098%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-24 18:25
Casumo🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 59.93%EV -8.48%E -5.44%K -15.15%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.81%EV -0.415%E -0.079%K -0.098%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.26%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-24 18:25
Suprabets🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 59.22%EV -6.14%E -3.84%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.22%EV -1.36%E -0.262%K -0.325%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.56%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-24 17:53
PMU (FR)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.33%EV -9.07%E -5.85%K -16.49%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 17.68%EV -1.36%E -0.262%K -0.325%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.99%EV -10.53%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-24 18:25
1xBet🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 59.13%EV -3.79%E -2.31%K -5.92%G +0.000%5.15I 19.42%NM 18.83%EV -2.31%E -0.449%K -0.557%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%EV -1.58%E -0.359%K -0.465%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-24 18:25
Pinnacle🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.51%EV -3.21%E -1.94%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.14I 19.46%NM 18.78%EV -2.50%E -0.487%K -0.604%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 22.71%EV -4.94%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-24 18:30
BetRivers🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.45%EV -9.07%E -5.85%K -16.49%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.07%EV -3.26%E -0.639%K -0.795%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.48%EV -8.29%E -2.02%K -2.67%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-24 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯1.65I 60.61%NM 58.76%EV -3.21%E -1.94%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.05I 19.80%NM 19.20%EV -4.21%E -0.833%K -1.04%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%EV -1.58%E -0.359%K -0.465%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-24 18:30
Coral🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 59.04%EV -5.55%E -3.45%K -9.10%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.01%EV -5.16%E -1.03%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.95%EV -3.15%E -0.727%K -0.945%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-24 18:25
BoyleSports🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.79%EV -6.14%E -3.84%K -10.23%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.81%EV -5.16%E -1.03%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 17:55
Betclic (FR)🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.18%EV -10.24%E -6.70%K -19.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -5.16%E -1.03%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.41%EV -3.82%E -0.888%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-24 18:20
Virgin Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -10.24%E -6.70%K -19.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -5.16%E -1.03%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -10.53%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-24 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 59.22%EV -10.24%E -6.70%K -19.33%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.12%EV -5.16%E -1.03%K -1.29%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.65%EV -10.53%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.4%2026-09-24 18:30
Bovada🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.06%EV -4.97%E -3.06%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.95I 20.20%NM 19.00%EV -6.11%E -1.23%K -1.55%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.94%EV -8.29%E -2.02%K -2.67%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 18:30
Betsson🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -4.97%E -3.06%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -7.05%E -1.44%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.68%EV -7.17%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-24 18:25
NordicBet🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 58.11%EV -4.97%E -3.06%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.21%EV -7.05%E -1.44%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.15I 24.10%NM 22.68%EV -7.17%E -1.73%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-24 18:25
SportsBet🎯1.61I 62.11%NM 58.41%EV -5.55%E -3.45%K -9.10%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.19%EV -7.05%E -1.44%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.39%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 18:30
FanDuel🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.72%EV -6.72%E -4.23%K -11.40%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 19.05%EV -7.05%E -1.44%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.23%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-24 18:30
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 58.40%EV -6.72%E -4.23%K -11.40%G +0.000%4.90I 20.41%NM 18.95%EV -7.05%E -1.44%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.65%EV -8.29%E -2.02%K -2.67%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-24 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%EV -6.14%E -3.84%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -8.95%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -1.58%E -0.359%K -0.465%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-24 18:25
Neds🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.93%EV -6.14%E -3.84%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.64%EV -8.95%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -1.58%E -0.359%K -0.465%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-24 18:25
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.73%EV -6.14%E -3.84%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.58%EV -8.95%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -3.15%E -0.727%K -0.945%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-24 18:29
William Hill🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 58.47%EV -9.07%E -5.85%K -16.49%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.88%EV -8.95%E -1.86%K -2.36%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.66%EV -10.53%E -2.63%K -3.51%G +0.000%10.3%2026-09-24 17:20
Paddy Power🎯1.62I 61.73%NM 57.91%EV -4.97%E -3.06%K -8.01%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.75%EV -9.90%E -2.08%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.34%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-24 18:25
TAB🎯1.60I 62.50%NM 58.37%EV -6.14%E -3.84%K -10.23%G +0.000%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.66%EV -9.90%E -2.08%K -2.64%G +0.000%4.25I 23.53%NM 21.97%EV -4.94%E -1.16%K -1.52%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-24 18:25
LeoVegas🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.99%EV -7.31%E -4.63%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.83%EV -10.85%E -2.31%K -2.93%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.18%EV -1.58%E -0.359%K -0.465%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-24 18:15
Winamax (DE)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.73%EV -7.31%E -4.63%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.17%EV -12.74%E -2.77%K -3.54%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.09%EV -1.58%E -0.359%K -0.465%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-24 18:15
Winamax (FR)🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 58.19%EV -7.31%E -4.63%K -12.61%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.43%EV -14.64%E -3.25%K -4.18%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 21.38%EV -3.82%E -0.888%K -1.16%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-24 18:15
betfred_uk🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 58.22%EV -10.24%E -6.70%K -19.33%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.57%EV -17.87%E -4.13%K -5.37%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.21%EV -6.05%E -1.44%K -1.89%G +0.000%12.3%2026-09-24 17:55
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.71%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.13%4.50I 22.22%NM 22.16%0.3%2026-09-24 18:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.41%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%0.8%2026-09-24 18:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.67I 59.88%NM 59.41%5.50I 18.18%NM 18.04%4.40I 22.73%NM 22.55%0.8%2026-09-24 18:30