The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Northern Ireland v Hungary

Kickoff: 2026-09-28 18:46 UTC

Final: Northern Ireland 0–0 Hungary

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (11 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northern Ireland (Local)

Prediction 33.69%2.97fair odd
EV -2.97%
Edge -1.03%
Kelly -1.58%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.88

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.98%33.74%33.66%34.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.672.772.772.8837.45%36.04%36.04%34.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hungary (Visit)

Prediction 34.33%2.91fair odd
EV -2.86%
Edge -1.01%
Kelly -1.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%34.29%34.28%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.722.712.8338.17%36.72%36.90%35.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 31.98%3.13fair odd
EV -0.850%
Edge -0.274%
Kelly -0.405%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
30.92%31.97%32.07%33.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.912.903.1035.71%34.37%34.48%32.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northern Ireland (Local): 33.69%; Hungary (Visit): 34.33%; Draw: 31.98%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.13. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 3.10, with an expected value of -0.850%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
ATG (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.46%EV -2.97%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.42%EV -3.89%E -1.39%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.12%EV -4.05%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-28 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.46%EV -2.97%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.42%EV -3.89%E -1.39%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.12%EV -4.05%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-28 18:25
Unibet (SE)🎯2.88I 34.72%NM 33.46%EV -2.97%E -1.03%K -1.58%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 34.42%EV -3.89%E -1.39%K -2.16%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.12%EV -4.05%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%3.8%2026-09-28 18:25
DraftKings🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.31%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.60%E -2.04%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 32.18%EV -5.65%E -1.91%K -2.90%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-28 18:45
Suprabets🎯2.85I 35.09%NM 33.29%EV -3.98%E -1.40%K -2.15%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.00%EV -4.23%E -1.52%K -2.36%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.71%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-28 18:06
1xBet🎯2.83I 35.34%NM 33.60%EV -4.66%E -1.65%K -2.55%G +0.000%2.83I 35.34%NM 33.60%EV -2.86%E -1.01%K -1.56%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.79%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%5.2%2026-09-28 18:35
Marathon Bet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 34.00%EV -5.00%E -1.77%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.87%EV -5.60%E -2.04%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 31.13%EV -1.49%E -0.484%K -0.716%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-28 18:44
Betsson🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.43%EV -5.00%E -1.77%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -5.60%E -2.04%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.29%EV -6.61%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-28 18:35
NordicBet🎯2.82I 35.46%NM 33.43%EV -5.00%E -1.77%K -2.74%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.28%EV -5.60%E -2.04%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.29%EV -6.61%E -2.26%K -3.44%G +0.000%6.1%2026-09-28 18:35
BoyleSports🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 34.23%EV -5.67%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.85%EV -5.60%E -2.04%K -3.20%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.92%EV -0.850%E -0.274%K -0.405%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-28 18:45
LeoVegas🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -5.67%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.60%E -2.04%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 18:45
Bovada🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -5.67%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -5.60%E -2.04%K -3.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 18:44
Unibet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -5.67%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.73%EV -7.32%E -2.71%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -5.65%E -1.91%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 18:00
Casumo🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -5.67%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.73%EV -7.32%E -2.71%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -5.65%E -1.91%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 18:00
Bally Bet🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.49%EV -5.67%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.73%EV -7.32%E -2.71%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.78%EV -5.65%E -1.91%K -2.90%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 18:00
Bet Victor🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -5.67%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -3.89%E -1.39%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.33%EV -10.44%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%7.1%2026-09-28 18:44
FanDuel🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -5.67%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -7.32%E -2.71%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-28 18:40
TAB🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.30%EV -5.67%E -2.02%K -3.15%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.54%EV -7.32%E -2.71%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.16%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.2%2026-09-28 18:05
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -3.89%E -1.39%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 17:55
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -3.89%E -1.39%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 17:55
Neds🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -3.89%E -1.39%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 17:55
Coral🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 34.12%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.52%EV -3.89%E -1.39%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.36%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-28 17:55
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.33%EV -7.32%E -2.71%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-28 18:45
BetRivers🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.32%E -2.71%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.89%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-28 18:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.63%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.25%EV -7.32%E -2.71%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.11%EV -7.89%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.1%2026-09-28 18:30
TABtouch🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.42%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.68%EV -9.04%E -3.41%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.91%EV -7.89%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.8%2026-09-28 18:25
betfred_uk🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.28%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -10.07%E -3.84%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.78%EV -7.89%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-28 18:44
Paddy Power🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 32.98%EV -7.35%E -2.67%K -4.20%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.62%EV -10.07%E -3.84%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.40%EV -10.44%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.2%2026-09-28 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -9.04%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.48%EV -7.32%E -2.71%K -4.31%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.03%EV -4.05%E -1.35%K -2.02%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-28 18:45
BetMGM🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -9.04%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.93%EV -7.32%E -2.71%K -4.31%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.14%EV -8.85%E -3.10%K -4.78%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-28 17:55
Winamax (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.90%EV -9.04%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.54%EV -9.04%E -3.41%K -5.48%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.56%EV -7.25%E -2.50%K -3.81%G +0.000%9.3%2026-09-28 18:44
William Hill🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.69%EV -9.04%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.72%EV -10.07%E -3.84%K -6.21%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.59%EV -7.89%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-28 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.04%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -9.72%E -3.70%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -10.44%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-28 18:25
PMU (FR)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.04%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -9.72%E -3.70%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -10.44%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-28 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 33.43%EV -9.04%E -3.35%K -5.32%G +0.000%2.63I 38.02%NM 34.32%EV -9.72%E -3.70%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.24%EV -10.44%E -3.73%K -5.80%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-28 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.67I 37.45%NM 34.38%EV -10.05%E -3.76%K -6.02%G +0.000%2.72I 36.76%NM 33.75%EV -6.63%E -2.44%K -3.86%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.87%EV -7.89%E -2.74%K -4.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-28 18:42
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎3.00I 33.33%NM 33.23%2.88I 34.72%NM 34.61%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.16%0.3%2026-09-28 18:40
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-09-28 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%2.92I 34.25%NM 33.99%3.10I 32.26%NM 32.02%0.8%2026-09-28 18:45