The School of Odds
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Northern Ireland v Hungary

2026-09-28 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

18 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northern Ireland (Local)

Prediction 35.28%2.83fair odd
EV -1.91%
Edge -0.688%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.78

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.66%34.86%35.25%35.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.632.652.7840.00%37.97%37.74%35.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Hungary (Visit)

Prediction 34.40%2.91fair odd
EV -3.69%
Edge -1.32%
Kelly -2.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.27%34.74%34.49%37.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.662.702.8042.55%37.53%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.32%3.30fair odd
EV -3.58%
Edge -1.13%
Kelly -1.64%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.18

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.50%30.40%30.26%31.70%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.802.982.953.1835.71%33.54%33.90%31.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Northern Ireland (Local): 35.28%; Hungary (Visit): 34.40%; Draw: 30.32%. For Northern Ireland (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.83. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.78, with an expected value of -1.91%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Betclic (FR)🎯2.78I 35.97%NM 32.66%EV -1.91%E -0.688%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.37%EV -16.42%E -6.76%K -11.48%G +0.000%3.03I 33.00%NM 29.97%EV -8.13%E -2.68%K -4.00%G +0.000%10.1%2026-09-21 11:23
LeoVegas🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.32%EV -2.97%E -1.08%K -1.70%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.65%EV -14.01%E -5.60%K -9.34%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.04%EV -7.52%E -2.47%K -3.67%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-21 11:19
Marathon Bet🎯2.71I 36.90%NM 35.42%EV -4.38%E -1.62%K -2.56%G +0.000%2.79I 35.84%NM 34.40%EV -4.03%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000%3.18I 31.45%NM 30.18%EV -3.58%E -1.13%K -1.64%G +0.000%4.2%2026-09-21 11:53
Unibet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -10.56%E -3.58%K -5.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-21 11:19
Virgin Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -10.56%E -3.58%K -5.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-21 11:19
BetRivers🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -10.56%E -3.58%K -5.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-21 11:19
LiveScore Bet🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -10.56%E -3.58%K -5.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-21 11:19
Casumo🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -10.56%E -3.58%K -5.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-21 11:19
ATG (SE)🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -10.56%E -3.58%K -5.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-21 11:19
Svenska Spel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.15%EV -6.50%E -2.45%K -3.94%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.27%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.58%EV -10.56%E -3.58%K -5.41%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-21 11:19
William Hill🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -7.56%E -2.88%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -7.13%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -9.04%E -3.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-21 11:54
BoyleSports🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.17%EV -7.56%E -2.88%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.12%EV -7.13%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.71%EV -9.04%E -3.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-21 11:19
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -7.56%E -2.88%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.80%EV -9.88%E -3.77%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.39%EV -9.04%E -3.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-21 12:55
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 33.47%EV -8.26%E -3.18%K -5.16%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 37.03%EV -19.17%E -8.16%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 29.50%EV -10.56%E -3.58%K -5.41%G +0.000%14.9%2026-09-21 11:19
FanDuel🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 35.91%EV -10.03%E -3.93%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 34.55%EV -8.85%E -3.34%K -5.36%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.54%EV -6.01%E -1.94%K -2.86%G +0.000%9.2%2026-09-21 11:57
PMU (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 34.81%EV -10.03%E -3.93%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.65I 37.74%NM 33.49%EV -8.85%E -3.34%K -5.36%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 31.70%EV -15.10%E -5.39%K -8.39%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-21 11:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 33.73%EV -10.03%E -3.93%K -6.47%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 36.60%EV -19.17%E -8.16%K -14.20%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 29.66%EV -12.07%E -4.16%K -6.35%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-21 11:19
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 35.87%EV -11.79%E -4.72%K -7.86%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.23%EV -9.88%E -3.77%K -6.10%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 29.90%EV -9.04%E -3.01%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.5%2026-09-21 11:59
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 30.52%1.43I 69.93%NM 30.52%1.12I 89.29%NM 38.96%129.1%2026-09-21 11:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 30.52%1.43I 69.93%NM 30.52%1.12I 89.29%NM 38.96%129.1%2026-09-21 11:19
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.43I 69.93%NM 30.52%1.43I 69.93%NM 30.52%1.12I 89.29%NM 38.96%129.1%2026-09-21 11:19