The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Northern Ireland v Georgia

2026-10-05 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

33 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northern Ireland (Local)

Prediction 38.30%2.61fair odd
EV -4.25%
Edge -1.70%
Kelly -2.83%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.14%38.23%38.37%39.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.432.452.5044.44%41.10%40.82%40.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Georgia (Visit)

Prediction 34.16%2.93fair odd
EV -4.35%
Edge -1.55%
Kelly -2.41%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.77%34.29%34.04%35.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.552.712.702.8039.22%36.94%37.04%35.71%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 27.54%3.63fair odd
EV +4.36%
Edge +1.15%
Kelly +1.56%
Growth +0.068%

assuming max odds 3.79

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.55%27.48%27.59%29.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.123.353.303.7932.05%29.85%30.30%26.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Northern Ireland (Local): 38.30%; Georgia (Visit): 34.16%; Draw: 27.54%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. 2 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 3.79, producing a positive expected value of +4.36%.

Sportsbook Odds (33 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.49I 40.16%NM 38.92%EV -4.63%E -1.86%K -3.11%G +0.000%2.73I 36.63%NM 35.50%EV -6.74%E -2.47%K -3.89%G +0.000%3.79I 26.39%NM 25.57%EV +4.36%E +1.15%K +1.56%G +0.068%3.2%2026-10-02 10:15
Marathon Bet🎯2.46I 40.65%NM 38.95%EV -5.78%E -2.35%K -3.96%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.49%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.55%EV +3.26%E +0.869%K +1.19%G +0.039%4.4%2026-10-02 10:13
Coral🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.64%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 35.06%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -0.871%E -0.242%K -0.335%G +0.000%5.6%2026-10-02 13:00
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -3.62%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-02 12:25
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -3.62%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-02 13:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.35%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 34.80%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.85%EV -3.62%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%6.4%2026-10-02 12:56
Betway🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.44%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.21%EV -10.49%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.36%EV -3.62%E -1.04%K -1.45%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-02 10:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.53%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 33.71%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.76%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-10-02 07:40
888sport🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -10.49%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 13:00
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -10.49%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 13:00
888sport (SE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.14%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.94%EV -10.49%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.92%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.2%2026-10-02 13:00
William Hill🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.34%EV -8.84%E -3.71%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -10.49%E -4.01%K -6.48%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -6.38%E -1.88%K -2.66%G +0.000%9.6%2026-10-02 13:00
LeoVegas🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.71%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.67%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%7.9%2026-10-02 10:05
Winamax (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 38.89%EV -11.91%E -5.18%K -9.16%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 34.41%EV -11.18%E -4.30%K -6.99%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.70%EV -7.75%E -2.31%K -3.30%G +0.000%11.8%2026-10-02 10:05
MyBookie.ag🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -8.84%E -3.71%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.34I 29.94%NM 27.47%EV -8.03%E -2.40%K -3.43%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-02 10:15
Betclic (FR)🎯2.33I 42.92%NM 39.02%EV -10.76%E -4.62%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.67%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 27.30%EV -8.31%E -2.49%K -3.56%G +0.000%10.0%2026-10-02 10:05
BetMGM🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.50%EV -4.25%E -1.70%K -2.83%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.09%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.41%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%6.7%2026-10-02 12:45
Winamax (FR)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 39.00%EV -13.82%E -6.14%K -11.06%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 34.41%EV -12.89%E -5.05%K -8.31%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 26.59%EV -9.13%E -2.77%K -3.97%G +0.000%14.0%2026-10-02 10:05
Unibet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:20
BetRivers🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:20
Casumo🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:20
Unibet (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:20
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:20
TABtouch🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:20
Bally Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 37.52%EV -5.01%E -2.02%K -3.39%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 33.84%EV -6.05%E -2.20%K -3.46%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.63%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%7.5%2026-10-02 08:18
BoyleSports🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.06%EV -8.08%E -3.36%K -5.77%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.83%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.11%EV -10.51%E -3.23%K -4.67%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-02 10:15
betfred_uk🎯2.38I 42.02%NM 38.55%EV -8.84%E -3.71%K -6.41%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.77%EV -4.35%E -1.55%K -2.41%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.67%EV -11.89%E -3.71%K -5.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-10-02 13:00
Bet Victor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.14%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.16%EV -14.09%E -4.52%K -6.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-02 07:40
betano_uk🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.14%EV -6.16%E -2.51%K -4.25%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.70%EV -7.76%E -2.87%K -4.57%G +0.000%3.12I 32.05%NM 29.16%EV -14.09%E -4.52%K -6.65%G +0.000%9.9%2026-10-02 07:43
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 30.27%1.56I 64.10%NM 29.88%1.17I 85.47%NM 39.84%114.5%2026-10-02 12:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.54I 64.94%NM 30.27%1.56I 64.10%NM 29.88%1.17I 85.47%NM 39.84%114.5%2026-10-02 12:46
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.45I 68.97%NM 31.00%1.47I 68.03%NM 30.58%1.17I 85.47%NM 38.42%122.5%2026-10-02 12:55