The School of Odds
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Netherlands v Germany

Kickoff: 2026-09-24 18:45 UTC

Final: Netherlands 1–1 Germany

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Netherlands (Local)

Prediction 36.02%2.78fair odd
EV -2.03%
Edge -0.747%
Kelly -1.18%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.72

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.47%36.13%36.07%38.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.452.582.602.7240.82%38.78%38.46%36.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Germany (Visit)

Prediction 38.24%2.61fair odd
EV -0.570%
Edge -0.219%
Kelly -0.357%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.18%38.21%38.21%39.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.352.482.482.6042.55%40.32%40.32%38.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 25.74%3.89fair odd
EV -2.19%
Edge -0.576%
Kelly -0.781%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.75%25.66%25.72%26.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.643.653.8029.41%27.50%27.40%26.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Netherlands (Local): 36.02%; Germany (Visit): 38.24%; Draw: 25.74%. For Germany (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.61. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.60, with an expected value of -0.570%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 36.05%EV -2.03%E -0.747%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 38.15%EV -1.72%E -0.668%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.80%EV -2.19%E -0.576%K -0.781%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-24 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.86%EV -2.75%E -1.02%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.97%EV -2.48%E -0.974%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.17%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-24 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.86%EV -2.75%E -1.02%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.97%EV -2.48%E -0.974%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.17%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-24 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.04%EV -3.11%E -1.16%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.17%EV -2.87%E -1.13%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.79%EV -3.22%E -0.856%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-24 18:20
Pinnacle🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.10%EV -3.47%E -1.30%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.24%EV -3.25%E -1.28%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.66%EV -2.96%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-24 18:30
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.74%EV -4.55%E -1.72%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.66%EV -6.31%E -2.57%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 18:25
Suprabets🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.18%EV -5.63%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.77%EV -4.01%E -1.60%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.04%EV -6.31%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-24 18:24
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.13%EV -5.63%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.57%EV -3.63%E -1.44%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.13%EV -5.63%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.57%EV -3.63%E -1.44%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 18:20
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.63%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-24 18:25
Bovada🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.02%EV -5.99%E -2.30%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.22%EV -5.92%E -2.41%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -6.05%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-24 18:30
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.39%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -3.47%E -0.927%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 18:15
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -5.16%E -2.08%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-24 18:25
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -5.16%E -2.08%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-24 18:25
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.39%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-24 18:20
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-24 18:20
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-24 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.39%EV -10.13%E -4.31%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-24 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -8.15%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -6.31%E -2.57%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.19%E -0.576%K -0.781%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 18:10
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -8.15%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-24 18:19
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV -8.15%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -7.07%E -2.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-24 18:25
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -0.570%E -0.219%K -0.357%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-24 18:20
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.98%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.98%EV -4.39%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-24 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-24 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.15%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -11.20%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-24 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.15%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -11.20%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-24 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.15%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -11.20%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-24 18:25
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-24 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -0.570%E -0.219%K -0.357%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 18:20
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -0.570%E -0.219%K -0.357%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -0.570%E -0.219%K -0.357%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 18:20
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.33%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.56%0.3%2026-09-24 18:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.00%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.52%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-09-24 18:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.00%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.52%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-09-24 18:30