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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Netherlands v Germany

开赛时间： 2026-09-24 18:45 UTC

最终结果： Netherlands 1–1 Germany

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

31 家博彩公司 (9 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Netherlands (主队)

预测 36.02%2.78公平赔率
EV -2.03%
优势 -0.747%
Kelly -1.18%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.72

博彩公司预测分布
35.47%36.13%36.07%38.40%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.452.582.602.7240.82%38.78%38.46%36.76%最小值均值中位数最大值

Germany (客队)

预测 38.24%2.61公平赔率
EV -0.570%
优势 -0.219%
Kelly -0.357%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.60

博彩公司预测分布
36.18%38.21%38.21%39.39%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.352.482.482.6042.55%40.32%40.32%38.46%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 25.74%3.89公平赔率
EV -2.19%
优势 -0.576%
Kelly -0.781%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 3.80

博彩公司预测分布
24.75%25.66%25.72%26.69%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
3.403.643.653.8029.41%27.50%27.40%26.32%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Netherlands (主队)：36.02%；Germany (客队)：38.24%；平局：25.74%。 对于“Germany (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.61。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为2.60，期望值为-0.570%，未产生正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (31 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队平局利润率更新时间
1xBet🎯2.72I 36.76%NM 36.05%EV -2.03%E -0.747%K -1.18%G +0.000%2.57I 38.91%NM 38.15%EV -1.72%E -0.668%K -1.09%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.80%EV -2.19%E -0.576%K -0.781%G +0.000%2.0%2026-09-24 18:25
Svenska Spel🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.86%EV -2.75%E -1.02%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.97%EV -2.48%E -0.974%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.17%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-24 18:25
ATG (SE)🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 35.86%EV -2.75%E -1.02%K -1.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.97%EV -2.48%E -0.974%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.17%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%3.3%2026-09-24 18:25
Marathon Bet🎯2.69I 37.17%NM 36.04%EV -3.11%E -1.16%K -1.84%G +0.000%2.54I 39.37%NM 38.17%EV -2.87%E -1.13%K -1.86%G +0.000%3.76I 26.60%NM 25.79%EV -3.22%E -0.856%K -1.17%G +0.000%3.1%2026-09-24 18:20
Pinnacle🎯2.68I 37.31%NM 36.10%EV -3.47%E -1.30%K -2.07%G +0.000%2.53I 39.53%NM 38.24%EV -3.25%E -1.28%K -2.12%G +0.000%3.77I 26.53%NM 25.66%EV -2.96%E -0.785%K -1.07%G +0.000%3.4%2026-09-24 18:30
FanDuel🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.74%EV -4.55%E -1.72%K -2.76%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.66%EV -6.31%E -2.57%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.60%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 18:25
Suprabets🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.18%EV -5.63%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.77%EV -4.01%E -1.60%K -2.66%G +0.000%3.64I 27.47%NM 26.04%EV -6.31%E -1.73%K -2.39%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-24 18:24
Betsson🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.13%EV -5.63%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.57%EV -3.63%E -1.44%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 18:20
NordicBet🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.13%EV -5.63%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.52I 39.68%NM 37.57%EV -3.63%E -1.44%K -2.39%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.30%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-24 18:20
Paddy Power🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -5.63%E -2.15%K -3.48%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.72%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.81%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.6%2026-09-24 18:25
Bovada🎯2.61I 38.31%NM 36.02%EV -5.99%E -2.30%K -3.72%G +0.000%2.46I 40.65%NM 38.22%EV -5.92%E -2.41%K -4.06%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 25.76%EV -6.05%E -1.66%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-24 18:30
betfred_uk🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.05%EV -4.39%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 25.37%EV -3.47%E -0.927%K -1.26%G +0.000%5.1%2026-09-24 18:15
Casumo🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -5.16%E -2.08%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-24 18:25
Unibet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.09%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.48I 40.32%NM 37.84%EV -5.16%E -2.08%K -3.49%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.07%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%6.6%2026-09-24 18:25
TAB🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.93%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 37.37%EV -4.39%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.69%EV -9.91%E -2.83%K -3.96%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-24 18:20
SportsBet🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-24 18:20
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.64%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.74%EV -7.34%E -2.04%K -2.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-24 18:25
Betclic (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 35.60%EV -6.35%E -2.44%K -3.97%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.39%EV -10.13%E -4.31%K -7.50%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.02%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.0%2026-09-24 18:25
Winamax (DE)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.87%EV -8.15%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 38.38%EV -6.31%E -2.57%K -4.35%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 24.75%EV -2.19%E -0.576%K -0.781%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 18:10
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.34%EV -8.15%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.61%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.05%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-24 18:19
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.13%EV -8.15%E -3.20%K -5.26%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 37.92%EV -7.07%E -2.91%K -4.95%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 25.95%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.5%2026-09-24 18:25
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.92%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.46%EV -0.570%E -0.219%K -0.357%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.62%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%5.5%2026-09-24 18:20
DraftKings🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.98%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.98%EV -4.39%E -1.76%K -2.93%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.04%EV -8.62%E -2.43%K -3.38%G +0.000%8.2%2026-09-24 18:10
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.80%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.33%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 24.87%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%8.7%2026-09-24 18:10
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.15%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -11.20%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-24 18:25
Virgin Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.15%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -11.20%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-24 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.15%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 26.20%EV -11.20%E -3.25%K -4.57%G +0.000%10.7%2026-09-24 18:25
William Hill🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.01%EV -9.96%E -3.98%K -6.64%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.51%EV -8.22%E -3.42%K -5.87%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 26.48%EV -12.48%E -3.67%K -5.20%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-24 18:10
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -0.570%E -0.219%K -0.357%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 18:20
Neds🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -0.570%E -0.219%K -0.357%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.40%EV -11.76%E -4.80%K -8.11%G +0.000%2.60I 38.46%NM 36.18%EV -0.570%E -0.219%K -0.357%G +0.000%3.70I 27.03%NM 25.42%EV -4.76%E -1.29%K -1.76%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-24 18:20
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (3)

博彩公司主队客队平局利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.11%2.60I 38.46%NM 38.33%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.56%0.3%2026-09-24 18:30
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.00%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.52%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-09-24 18:30
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.76I 36.23%NM 36.00%2.58I 38.76%NM 38.52%3.90I 25.64%NM 25.48%0.6%2026-09-24 18:30