The School of Odds
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Malta v Luxembourg

Kickoff: 2026-03-26 17:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malta (Local)

Prediction 26.58%3.76fair odd
EV +2.06%
Edge +0.536%
Kelly +0.724%
Growth +0.015%

assuming max odds 3.84

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
24.93%26.62%26.77%28.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.253.513.553.8430.77%28.48%28.13%26.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Luxembourg (Visit)

Prediction 41.04%2.44fair odd
EV -1.50%
Edge -0.625%
Kelly -1.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.40

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
38.22%40.85%40.90%42.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.152.242.252.4046.51%44.57%44.44%41.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 32.38%3.09fair odd
EV -2.53%
Edge -0.842%
Kelly -1.26%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.01

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.52%32.53%32.33%33.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.702.872.863.0137.04%34.81%34.97%33.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malta (Local): 26.58%; Luxembourg (Visit): 41.04%; Draw: 32.38%. For Malta (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.76. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.84, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.06%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 25.30%EV +2.06%E +0.536%K +0.724%G +0.015%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.42%EV -6.01%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%3.01I 33.22%NM 32.28%EV -2.53%E -0.842%K -1.26%G +0.000%2.9%2026-03-26 16:55
Marathon Bet🎯3.84I 26.04%NM 25.25%EV +2.06%E +0.536%K +0.724%G +0.015%2.29I 43.67%NM 42.33%EV -6.01%E -2.63%K -4.66%G +0.000%2.99I 33.44%NM 32.42%EV -3.18%E -1.06%K -1.60%G +0.000%3.2%2026-03-26 16:54
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -1.66%E -0.450%K -0.616%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -6.10%E -2.10%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-26 16:54
Coral🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.51%EV -1.66%E -0.450%K -0.616%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.95%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -6.10%E -2.10%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.0%2026-03-26 16:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -1.66%E -0.450%K -0.616%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-26 16:55
Neds🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 25.36%EV -1.66%E -0.450%K -0.616%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.71%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.93%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%6.6%2026-03-26 16:54
Bovada🎯3.70I 27.03%NM 24.93%EV -1.66%E -0.450%K -0.616%G +0.000%2.16I 46.30%NM 42.70%EV -11.35%E -5.25%K -9.78%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.37%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-26 16:54
Everygame🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.77%EV -2.99%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.80%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.43%EV -6.10%E -2.10%K -3.21%G +0.000%6.3%2026-03-26 16:54
DraftKings🎯3.65I 27.40%NM 25.38%EV -2.99%E -0.820%K -1.13%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.51%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%7.9%2026-03-26 16:54
BetMGM🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.64%EV -4.32%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.96%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 32.39%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-03-26 16:54
TAB🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.54%EV -4.32%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.76%EV -11.76%E -5.47%K -10.23%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.10%E -2.10%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-26 16:55
William Hill🎯3.60I 27.78%NM 25.50%EV -4.32%E -1.20%K -1.66%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.72%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.78%EV -9.33%E -3.33%K -5.19%G +0.000%8.9%2026-03-26 16:55
Suprabets🎯3.51I 28.49%NM 27.01%EV -6.71%E -1.91%K -2.67%G +0.000%2.34I 42.74%NM 40.52%EV -3.96%E -1.69%K -2.96%G +0.000%2.92I 34.25%NM 32.47%EV -5.45%E -1.87%K -2.84%G +0.000%5.5%2026-03-26 16:51
BoyleSports🎯3.40I 29.41%NM 26.84%EV -9.64%E -2.83%K -4.02%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.56%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.59%EV -9.33%E -3.33%K -5.19%G +0.000%9.6%2026-03-26 16:49
Unibet🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -10.97%E -3.27%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.10%E -2.10%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-26 16:55
ATG (SE)🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -10.97%E -3.27%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.10%E -2.10%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-26 16:55
Svenska Spel🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -10.97%E -3.27%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.10%E -2.10%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-26 16:55
Casumo🎯3.35I 29.85%NM 27.44%EV -10.97%E -3.27%K -4.67%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.86%EV -7.66%E -3.40%K -6.12%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.70%EV -6.10%E -2.10%K -3.21%G +0.000%8.8%2026-03-26 16:54
BetRivers🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.80%EV -12.29%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 38.22%EV -1.50%E -0.625%K -1.07%G +0.000%2.70I 37.04%NM 33.98%EV -12.57%E -4.66%K -7.40%G +0.000%9.0%2026-03-26 16:52
Winamax (FR)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -12.29%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-26 16:50
Winamax (DE)🎯3.30I 30.30%NM 27.34%EV -12.29%E -3.73%K -5.35%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.01%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.65%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%10.8%2026-03-26 16:55
Betclic (FR)🎯3.28I 30.49%NM 28.12%EV -12.83%E -3.91%K -5.63%G +0.000%2.32I 43.10%NM 39.75%EV -4.78%E -2.06%K -3.62%G +0.000%2.87I 34.84%NM 32.13%EV -7.07%E -2.46%K -3.78%G +0.000%8.4%2026-03-26 16:51
Virgin Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.84%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.52%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-26 16:55
LiveScore Bet🎯3.25I 30.77%NM 27.64%EV -13.62%E -4.19%K -6.05%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 40.84%EV -9.71%E -4.41%K -8.09%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.52%EV -7.72%E -2.71%K -4.17%G +0.000%11.3%2026-03-26 16:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.