The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Malta v Gibraltar

Kickoff: 2026-10-01 18:46 UTC

Final: Malta 1–1 Gibraltar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

39 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malta (Local)

Prediction 75.79%1.32fair odd
EV -3.75%
Edge -2.95%
Kelly -13.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.27

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.54%75.70%75.87%77.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.241.231.2783.33%80.75%81.30%78.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gibraltar (Visit)

Prediction 6.71%14.90fair odd
EV +7.35%
Edge +0.459%
Kelly +0.490%
Growth +0.036%

assuming max odds 16.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.77%6.84%6.72%8.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.5013.1312.7516.008.70%7.61%7.84%6.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 17.50%5.71fair odd
EV +5.00%
Edge +0.834%
Kelly +1.00%
Growth +0.050%

assuming max odds 6.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.48%17.45%17.40%19.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.605.275.006.0021.74%18.97%20.00%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Malta (Local): 75.79%; Gibraltar (Visit): 6.71%; Draw: 17.50%. For Gibraltar (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 14.90. 11 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 16.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.35%.

Sportsbook Odds (39 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -5.26%E -4.21%K -21.05%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.94%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.87%EV +5.00%E +0.834%K +1.00%G +0.050%5.0%2026-10-01 18:40
Suprabets🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%14.00I 7.14%NM 6.75%EV -6.07%E -0.433%K -0.467%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.76%EV +5.00%E +0.834%K +1.00%G +0.050%5.8%2026-10-01 18:38
Betway🎯1.20I 83.33%NM 77.38%EV -9.05%E -7.54%K -45.26%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -12.78%E -0.983%K -1.06%G +0.000%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.48%EV +5.00%E +0.834%K +1.00%G +0.050%7.7%2026-10-01 18:39
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.67%EV -5.26%E -4.21%K -21.05%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.88%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.45%EV +0.627%E +0.109%K +0.132%G +0.001%5.7%2026-10-01 18:35
BetMGM🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.86%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.05%EV -22.84%E -1.99%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.75I 17.39%NM 16.09%EV +0.627%E +0.109%K +0.132%G +0.001%8.1%2026-10-01 18:34
Marathon Bet🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 76.65%EV -5.26%E -4.21%K -21.05%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.39%EV +0.641%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000%5.65I 17.70%NM 16.96%EV -1.12%E -0.199%K -0.241%G +0.000%4.4%2026-10-01 18:30
Neds🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.08%EV -5.26%E -4.21%K -21.05%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.16%EV -22.84%E -1.99%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -2.00%E -0.357%K -0.434%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 18:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 75.08%EV -5.26%E -4.21%K -21.05%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.16%EV -22.84%E -1.99%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.76%EV -2.00%E -0.357%K -0.434%G +0.000%6.6%2026-10-01 18:30
Winamax (DE)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.94%EV -8.29%E -6.85%K -39.49%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.41%EV -2.00%E -0.357%K -0.434%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-01 18:45
Bovada🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.94%EV -8.29%E -6.85%K -39.49%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.66%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.60I 17.86%NM 16.41%EV -2.00%E -0.357%K -0.434%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-01 18:38
1xBet🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 76.68%EV -6.02%E -4.85%K -25.08%G +0.000%15.20I 6.58%NM 6.26%EV +1.98%E +0.130%K +0.140%G +0.003%5.57I 17.95%NM 17.07%EV -2.52%E -0.453%K -0.552%G +0.000%5.2%2026-10-01 18:43
Bet Victor🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.74%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV +0.641%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -3.75%E -0.681%K -0.833%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 18:34
DraftKings🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.74%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV +0.641%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -3.75%E -0.681%K -0.833%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 18:45
betano_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.74%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.24%EV +0.641%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 17.02%EV -3.75%E -0.681%K -0.833%G +0.000%6.8%2026-10-01 18:34
LeoVegas🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.01%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV -12.78%E -0.983%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.86%EV -3.75%E -0.681%K -0.833%G +0.000%7.8%2026-10-01 18:39
Winamax (FR)🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 75.46%EV -8.29%E -6.85%K -39.49%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 7.94%EV -22.84%E -1.99%K -2.18%G +0.000%5.50I 18.18%NM 16.60%EV -3.75%E -0.681%K -0.833%G +0.000%9.5%2026-10-01 18:45
MyBookie.ag🎯1.21I 82.64%NM 76.39%EV -8.29%E -6.85%K -39.49%G +0.000%14.25I 7.02%NM 6.49%EV -4.39%E -0.308%K -0.331%G +0.000%5.40I 18.52%NM 17.12%EV -5.50%E -1.02%K -1.25%G +0.000%8.2%2026-10-01 18:45
Unibet (UK)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 76.12%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.19%EV +0.641%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.69%EV -8.12%E -1.55%K -1.91%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-01 18:45
Betclic (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 74.76%EV -6.78%E -5.51%K -29.47%G +0.000%12.75I 7.84%NM 7.21%EV -14.46%E -1.13%K -1.23%G +0.000%5.10I 19.61%NM 18.03%EV -10.75%E -2.11%K -2.62%G +0.000%8.8%2026-10-01 18:44
Unibet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.54%EV -3.75%E -2.95%K -13.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 17:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.54%EV -3.75%E -2.95%K -13.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 17:55
BetRivers🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.54%EV -3.75%E -2.95%K -13.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 17:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.54%EV -3.75%E -2.95%K -13.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 17:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.54%EV -3.75%E -2.95%K -13.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 17:55
Svenska Spel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.54%EV -3.75%E -2.95%K -13.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 17:55
Casumo🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.54%EV -3.75%E -2.95%K -13.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 17:55
TABtouch🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.54%EV -3.75%E -2.95%K -13.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 17:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.54%EV -3.75%E -2.95%K -13.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 17:55
Bally Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.54%EV -3.75%E -2.95%K -13.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 17:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.54%EV -3.75%E -2.95%K -13.88%G +0.000%12.00I 8.33%NM 7.78%EV -19.49%E -1.62%K -1.77%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.68%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.1%2026-10-01 17:55
TAB🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 74.29%EV -5.26%E -4.21%K -21.05%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.14%EV -12.78%E -0.983%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%7.7%2026-10-01 18:35
888sport🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +0.641%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 18:20
888sport (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +0.641%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 18:20
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 75.45%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%15.00I 6.67%NM 6.14%EV +0.641%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.41%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%8.6%2026-10-01 18:20
BoyleSports🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.75%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -12.78%E -0.983%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-01 18:44
William Hill🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 74.75%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.01%EV -12.78%E -0.983%K -1.06%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -12.50%E -2.50%K -3.12%G +0.000%9.7%2026-10-01 18:45
NordicBet🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.01%EV -6.78%E -5.51%K -29.47%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV +7.35%E +0.459%K +0.490%G +0.036%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -16.00%E -3.33%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-01 18:30
Betsson🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 75.01%EV -6.78%E -5.51%K -29.47%G +0.000%16.00I 6.25%NM 5.77%EV +7.35%E +0.459%K +0.490%G +0.036%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.22%EV -16.00%E -3.33%K -4.21%G +0.000%8.4%2026-10-01 18:30
betfred_uk🎯1.22I 81.97%NM 73.58%EV -7.54%E -6.18%K -34.25%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 6.91%EV -12.78%E -0.983%K -1.06%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.51%EV -19.50%E -4.24%K -5.42%G +0.000%11.4%2026-10-01 18:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 78.54%16.50I 6.06%NM 6.00%6.40I 15.63%NM 15.46%1.1%2026-10-01 18:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.26I 79.37%NM 78.15%16.50I 6.06%NM 5.97%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88%1.6%2026-10-01 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.25I 80.00%NM 78.67%18.00I 5.56%NM 5.46%6.20I 16.13%NM 15.86%1.7%2026-10-01 18:45