Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malta v Gibraltar

2026-10-01 18:45 UTC — UEFA Nations League

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Malta (Local)

Prediction 72.61%1.38fair odd
EV -4.88%
Edge -3.73%
Kelly -15.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.31

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.08%72.46%72.51%73.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.231.281.291.3181.30%78.10%77.52%76.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Gibraltar (Visit)

Prediction 8.13%12.30fair odd
EV +5.73%
Edge +0.441%
Kelly +0.478%
Growth +0.027%

assuming max odds 13.00

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.16%8.23%8.17%9.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.0011.3011.3813.0011.11%8.85%8.79%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 19.26%5.19fair odd
EV +1.29%
Edge +0.245%
Kelly +0.302%
Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 5.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
18.33%19.32%19.32%20.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.764.805.2623.09%21.02%20.83%19.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Malta (Local): 72.61%; Gibraltar (Visit): 8.13%; Draw: 19.26%. For Gibraltar (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.30. 6 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 13.00, producing a positive expected value of +5.73%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
Coral🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.95%EV -5.61%E -4.31%K -18.69%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.29%EV +5.73%E +0.441%K +0.478%G +0.027%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV -7.57%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-28 11:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.95%EV -5.61%E -4.31%K -18.69%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.29%EV +5.73%E +0.441%K +0.478%G +0.027%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.76%EV -7.57%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-28 12:00
BoyleSports🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 72.16%EV -6.33%E -4.91%K -21.84%G +0.000%13.00I 7.69%NM 7.16%EV +5.73%E +0.441%K +0.478%G +0.027%4.50I 22.22%NM 20.68%EV -13.35%E -2.97%K -3.81%G +0.000%7.4%2026-09-28 11:14
Neds🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -5.61%E -4.31%K -18.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.55%EV +1.67%E +0.133%K +0.145%G +0.002%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.87%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-28 12:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.59%EV -5.61%E -4.31%K -18.69%G +0.000%12.50I 8.00%NM 7.55%EV +1.67%E +0.133%K +0.145%G +0.002%4.75I 21.05%NM 19.87%EV -8.53%E -1.80%K -2.28%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-28 12:00
1xBet🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 73.77%EV -4.88%E -3.73%K -15.74%G +0.000%12.30I 8.13%NM 7.86%EV +0.040%E +0.003%K +0.004%G +0.000%5.26I 19.01%NM 18.37%EV +1.29%E +0.245%K +0.302%G +0.004%3.5%2026-09-28 11:14
Marathon Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 73.74%EV -5.61%E -4.31%K -18.69%G +0.000%12.25I 8.16%NM 7.83%EV -0.366%E -0.030%K -0.033%G +0.000%5.20I 19.23%NM 18.43%EV +0.132%E +0.025%K +0.031%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-28 11:09
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.26%EV -5.61%E -4.31%K -18.69%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.17%EV -6.47%E -0.562%K -0.616%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -7.57%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 08:35
BetRivers🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.26%EV -5.61%E -4.31%K -18.69%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.17%EV -6.47%E -0.562%K -0.616%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -7.57%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 08:35
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.26%EV -5.61%E -4.31%K -18.69%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.17%EV -6.47%E -0.562%K -0.616%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -7.57%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 08:40
Svenska Spel🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.26%EV -5.61%E -4.31%K -18.69%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.17%EV -6.47%E -0.562%K -0.616%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -7.57%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 08:39
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.26%EV -5.61%E -4.31%K -18.69%G +0.000%11.50I 8.70%NM 8.17%EV -6.47%E -0.562%K -0.616%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.57%EV -7.57%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%6.5%2026-09-28 10:30
Betclic (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 72.91%EV -9.24%E -7.39%K -36.95%G +0.000%11.25I 8.89%NM 8.10%EV -8.50%E -0.756%K -0.829%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.99%EV -7.57%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%9.7%2026-09-28 09:13
LeoVegas🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 73.02%EV -7.78%E -6.13%K -28.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.43%EV -10.53%E -0.958%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.55%EV -3.72%E -0.744%K -0.930%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-28 09:15
William Hill🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 71.55%EV -6.33%E -4.91%K -21.84%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.39%EV -10.53%E -0.958%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.06%EV -11.42%E -2.48%K -3.17%G +0.000%8.3%2026-09-28 12:00
Suprabets🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 73.33%EV -9.24%E -7.39%K -36.95%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -10.53%E -0.958%K -1.05%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.33%EV -3.72%E -0.744%K -0.930%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-28 11:16
FanDuel🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 72.17%EV -7.78%E -6.13%K -28.83%G +0.000%11.00I 9.09%NM 8.33%EV -10.53%E -0.958%K -1.05%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 19.50%EV -9.50%E -2.02%K -2.57%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-28 08:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.58%EV -7.78%E -6.13%K -28.83%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -14.60%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -11.42%E -2.48%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-28 08:35
Virgin Bet🎯1.27I 78.74%NM 71.58%EV -7.78%E -6.13%K -28.83%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.66%EV -14.60%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 19.76%EV -11.42%E -2.48%K -3.17%G +0.000%10.0%2026-09-28 08:40
PMU (FR)🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.59%EV -9.24%E -7.39%K -36.95%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.52%EV -14.60%E -1.39%K -1.54%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.89%EV -13.35%E -2.97%K -3.81%G +0.000%11.7%2026-09-28 08:40
betfred_uk🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 70.08%EV -6.33%E -4.91%K -21.84%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.04%EV -18.67%E -1.87%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 20.88%EV -16.62%E -3.84%K -4.99%G +0.000%10.6%2026-09-28 08:39
Paddy Power🎯1.25I 80.00%NM 71.29%EV -9.24%E -7.39%K -36.95%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 8.91%EV -18.67%E -1.87%K -2.07%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 19.80%EV -13.35%E -2.97%K -3.81%G +0.000%12.2%2026-09-28 08:38
Winamax (DE)🎯1.24I 80.65%NM 72.00%EV -9.96%E -8.03%K -41.51%G +0.000%9.50I 10.53%NM 9.40%EV -22.73%E -2.39%K -2.67%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 18.60%EV -7.57%E -1.58%K -1.99%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-28 09:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.23I 81.30%NM 71.51%EV -10.69%E -8.69%K -46.47%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 9.77%EV -26.80%E -2.98%K -3.35%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 18.71%EV -9.50%E -2.02%K -2.57%G +0.000%13.7%2026-09-28 09:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 40.58%1.10I 90.91%NM 46.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 12.57%94.0%2026-09-28 13:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 40.58%1.10I 90.91%NM 46.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 12.57%94.0%2026-09-28 13:15
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.27I 78.74%NM 40.58%1.10I 90.91%NM 46.85%4.10I 24.39%NM 12.57%94.0%2026-09-28 13:15