The School of Odds
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Hungary v Ukraine

Kickoff: 2026-09-25 18:49 UTC

Final: Hungary 0–1 Ukraine

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

29 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Hungary (Local)

Prediction 38.23%2.62fair odd
EV +0.558%
Edge +0.212%
Kelly +0.342%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 2.63

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
36.10%38.22%38.22%41.34%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.322.472.502.6343.10%40.41%40.00%38.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Ukraine (Visit)

Prediction 31.65%3.16fair odd
EV +3.80%
Edge +1.16%
Kelly +1.67%
Growth +0.063%

assuming max odds 3.28

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
29.24%31.51%31.72%32.90%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.752.932.903.2836.36%34.09%34.48%30.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 30.12%3.32fair odd
EV -1.81%
Edge -0.556%
Kelly -0.802%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.26

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
28.77%30.27%30.05%32.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.803.073.103.2635.71%32.60%32.26%30.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Hungary (Local): 38.23%; Ukraine (Visit): 31.65%; Draw: 30.12%. For Ukraine (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.16. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.28, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.80%.

Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯2.32I 43.10%NM 41.34%EV -11.30%E -4.87%K -8.56%G +0.000%3.28I 30.49%NM 29.24%EV +3.80%E +1.16%K +1.67%G +0.063%3.26I 30.67%NM 29.42%EV -1.81%E -0.556%K -0.802%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 18:40
DraftKings🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 40.13%EV -10.15%E -4.32%K -7.52%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -0.314%E -0.100%K -0.146%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.94%EV -5.13%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 18:45
Betsson🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -3.48%E -1.14%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-25 18:39
NordicBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.56%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.05I 32.79%NM 30.97%EV -3.48%E -1.14%K -1.70%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.47%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.9%2026-09-25 18:40
Svenska Spel🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.70%EV +0.558%E +0.212%K +0.342%G +0.002%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.17%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.13%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-25 18:35
ATG (SE)🎯2.63I 38.02%NM 36.70%EV +0.558%E +0.212%K +0.342%G +0.002%3.00I 33.33%NM 32.17%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 31.13%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%3.6%2026-09-25 18:35
Bovada🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.88%EV -4.41%E -1.77%K -2.94%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.57%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.55%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-25 18:48
TAB🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.85%EV -8.24%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.08%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.08%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%7.3%2026-09-25 18:40
FanDuel🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -5.06%E -1.69%K -2.53%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.01%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.5%2026-09-25 18:44
Marathon Bet🎯2.53I 39.53%NM 37.88%EV -3.27%E -1.29%K -2.13%G +0.000%2.98I 33.56%NM 32.16%EV -5.69%E -1.91%K -2.88%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.95%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%4.3%2026-09-25 18:44
Suprabets🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 37.64%EV -3.65%E -1.45%K -2.40%G +0.000%2.96I 33.78%NM 32.05%EV -6.33%E -2.14%K -3.23%G +0.000%3.13I 31.95%NM 30.31%EV -5.73%E -1.83%K -2.69%G +0.000%5.4%2026-09-25 18:27
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.83%EV -4.41%E -1.77%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.61%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 29.56%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%5.7%2026-09-25 18:45
LeoVegas🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.01%EV -2.50%E -0.981%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.54%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.44%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-25 18:45
BoyleSports🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -4.41%E -1.77%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-25 18:25
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -4.41%E -1.77%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-25 18:20
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -4.41%E -1.77%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-25 18:20
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.47%EV -4.41%E -1.77%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.31%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.22%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%6.7%2026-09-25 18:45
Unibet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -2.50%E -0.981%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-25 18:35
Casumo🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.64%EV -2.50%E -0.981%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 32.22%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 31.14%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%7.0%2026-09-25 18:35
Winamax (DE)🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.62%EV -8.24%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.96%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.42%EV -5.13%E -1.63%K -2.38%G +0.000%7.9%2026-09-25 18:45
Betclic (FR)🎯2.37I 42.19%NM 38.66%EV -9.38%E -3.96%K -6.85%G +0.000%2.90I 34.48%NM 31.59%EV -8.23%E -2.84%K -4.33%G +0.000%3.08I 32.47%NM 29.75%EV -7.23%E -2.35%K -3.48%G +0.000%9.1%2026-09-25 18:39
BetRivers🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.37%EV -2.50%E -0.981%K -1.61%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 32.20%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.43%EV -11.15%E -3.78%K -5.72%G +0.000%7.8%2026-09-25 18:35
Paddy Power🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 37.50%EV -8.24%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -8.86%E -3.08%K -4.71%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.25%EV -13.26%E -4.60%K -7.05%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-25 18:35
Winamax (FR)🎯2.35I 42.55%NM 38.72%EV -10.15%E -4.32%K -7.52%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.93%EV -9.81%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 29.35%EV -6.63%E -2.14%K -3.16%G +0.000%9.9%2026-09-25 18:45
PMU (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 36.10%EV -4.41%E -1.77%K -2.94%G +0.000%2.85I 35.09%NM 31.67%EV -9.81%E -3.44%K -5.30%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.23%EV -15.67%E -5.60%K -8.70%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-25 18:30
betfred_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.36%EV -8.24%E -3.43%K -5.88%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.88%EV -11.39%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.77%EV -3.62%E -1.13%K -1.65%G +0.000%8.6%2026-09-25 18:25
LiveScore Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.41%EV -5.18%E -2.09%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.25%EV -11.39%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.35%EV -13.26%E -4.60%K -7.05%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-25 18:35
Virgin Bet🎯2.48I 40.32%NM 36.41%EV -5.18%E -2.09%K -3.50%G +0.000%2.80I 35.71%NM 32.25%EV -11.39%E -4.07%K -6.33%G +0.000%2.88I 34.72%NM 31.35%EV -13.26%E -4.60%K -7.05%G +0.000%10.8%2026-09-25 18:35
William Hill🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 36.93%EV -6.32%E -2.58%K -4.36%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 32.90%EV -12.97%E -4.72%K -7.41%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 30.16%EV -9.64%E -3.21%K -4.82%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-25 18:45
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%1.0%2026-09-25 18:45
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%1.0%2026-09-25 18:45
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.60I 38.46%NM 38.10%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%3.20I 31.25%NM 30.95%1.0%2026-09-25 18:45