Idioma:Español
Germany v Greece
Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →
Resultado del partido
Germany (Local)
Predicción 65.19%1.53momio equitativo
EV -2.86%
Ventaja -1.92%
Kelly -5.84%
Crecimiento +0.000%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.49
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
63.45%65.30%64.95%68.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
1.341.421.431.4974.63%70.22%69.93%67.11%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Greece (Visitante)
Predicción 14.72%6.79momio equitativo
EV +19.24%
Ventaja +2.38%
Kelly +2.71%
Crecimiento +0.521%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 8.10
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
11.87%14.60%14.82%15.73%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
5.906.556.508.1016.95%15.26%15.38%12.35%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Empate
Predicción 20.09%4.98momio equitativo
EV +5.45%
Ventaja +1.04%
Kelly +1.28%
Crecimiento +0.070%
suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25
Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
18.62%20.10%20.23%22.10%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Distribución de los momios
4.204.674.705.2523.81%21.39%21.28%19.05%MÍN.MEDIAMEDIANAMÁX.
Con la última cotización anterior al inicio, Media intercuartílica (Lista Curada) estimó estas probabilidades para Resultado del partido: Germany (Local): 65.19%; Greece (Visitante): 14.72%; Empate: 20.09%. Para Greece (Visitante), esa estimación equivalía a momios decimales justos de 6.79. 9 corredores ofrecieron momios de cierre superiores a ese nivel; los mejores fueron 8.10, correspondientes a un valor esperado positivo de +19.24%.
Momios de las casas de apuestas (31 corredores)
No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.
| Corredor | Local | Visitante ▼ | Empate | Margen | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 68.18%EV -8.08%E -5.73%K -19.70%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.87%EV +19.24%E +2.38%K +2.71%G +0.521% | 4.82I 20.75%NM 19.95%EV -3.19%E -0.661%K -0.834%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.35%EV -6.77%E -4.74%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 13.03%EV +10.41%E +1.39%K +1.60%G +0.167% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.62%EV +5.45%E +1.04%K +1.28%G +0.070% | 2.3% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 68.35%EV -6.77%E -4.74%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 13.03%EV +10.41%E +1.39%K +1.60%G +0.167% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.62%EV +5.45%E +1.04%K +1.28%G +0.070% | 2.3% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.57%EV -8.73%E -6.24%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.51%EV +3.05%E +0.435%K +0.508%G +0.015% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.92%EV +0.428%E +0.086%K +0.107%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-09-27 13:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.39I 71.94%NM 66.92%EV -9.38%E -6.75%K -24.05%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.29%EV +3.05%E +0.435%K +0.508%G +0.015% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.79%EV -5.60%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 67.36%EV -10.03%E -7.27%K -26.40%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.28%EV +3.05%E +0.435%K +0.508%G +0.015% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.36%EV -3.59%E -0.748%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.82%EV -11.34%E -8.34%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.98%EV +3.05%E +0.435%K +0.508%G +0.015% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.20%EV -9.61%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.82%EV -6.77%E -4.74%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.63%EV +0.103%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55%EV -13.63%E -3.17%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.82%EV -6.77%E -4.74%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 6.80I 14.71%NM 13.63%EV +0.103%E +0.015%K +0.018%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.55%EV -13.63%E -3.17%K -4.13%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.97%EV -8.73%E -6.24%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.89%EV -0.633%E -0.094%K -0.110%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.58%E -0.322%K -0.405%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-27 18:25 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.97%EV -8.73%E -6.24%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.89%EV -0.633%E -0.094%K -0.110%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.14%EV -1.58%E -0.322%K -0.405%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-27 18:30 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 65.02%EV -2.86%E -1.92%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 6.55I 15.27%NM 14.79%EV -3.58%E -0.546%K -0.644%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 20.18%EV -3.59%E -0.748%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| Suprabets🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 64.85%EV -4.82%E -3.30%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.57%EV -4.31%E -0.664%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.58%EV -7.61%E -1.65%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.45%EV -3.51%E -2.37%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.45%EV -4.31%E -0.664%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.10%EV -14.64%E -3.44%K -4.50%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.16%EV -6.12%E -4.25%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.44%EV -4.31%E -0.664%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.40%EV -7.61%E -1.65%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 66.22%EV -8.73%E -6.24%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.26%EV -4.31%E -0.664%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.52%EV -4.59%E -0.967%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-27 18:34 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 66.68%EV -10.03%E -7.27%K -26.40%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.16%EV -4.31%E -0.664%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.17%EV -3.59%E -0.748%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.57%EV -8.73%E -6.24%K -21.82%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 13.91%EV -4.31%E -0.664%K -0.784%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.52%EV -15.64%E -3.72%K -4.89%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.61%EV -2.86%E -1.92%K -5.84%G +0.000% | 6.46I 15.48%NM 14.90%EV -4.90%E -0.759%K -0.898%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.48%EV -5.60%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-27 18:30 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.58%EV -11.34%E -8.34%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.15%EV -5.78%E -0.904%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -5.60%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.58%EV -11.34%E -8.34%K -31.49%G +0.000% | 6.40I 15.63%NM 14.15%EV -5.78%E -0.904%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.27%EV -5.60%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.34I 74.63%NM 66.41%EV -12.64%E -9.43%K -37.18%G +0.000% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 14.24%EV -7.99%E -1.28%K -1.52%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.35%EV -7.61%E -1.65%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.51%E -2.37%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -11.67%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -7.61%E -1.65%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-27 18:25 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.51%E -2.37%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -11.67%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -7.61%E -1.65%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-27 18:25 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.51%E -2.37%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -11.67%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -7.61%E -1.65%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-27 18:25 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.76%EV -3.51%E -2.37%K -7.32%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV -11.67%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.51%EV -7.61%E -1.65%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-27 18:25 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 65.09%EV -6.77%E -4.74%K -15.75%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.51%EV -11.67%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.39%EV -3.59%E -0.748%K -0.944%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.39%EV -6.12%E -4.25%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.45%EV -11.67%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.16%EV -7.61%E -1.65%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-09-27 18:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.12%E -4.25%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.67%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -9.61%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-27 18:29 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.10%EV -6.12%E -4.25%K -13.91%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.38%EV -11.67%E -1.95%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.51%EV -9.61%E -2.14%K -2.75%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-09-27 18:39 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.82%EV -7.43%E -5.23%K -17.68%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 15.60%EV -13.15%E -2.23%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.58%EV -5.60%E -1.19%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas
Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.
Bolsas de apuestas (3)
| Corredor | Local | Visitante | Empate | Margen ▲ | Actualizado |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.97% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.81% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 19.22% | 0.1% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.87% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.46I 68.49%NM 67.87% | 7.80I 12.82%NM 12.70% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 19.43% | 0.9% | 2026-09-27 18:40 |